Winner: Adrian Yanez
Confidence Score: 72Adrian Yanez is likely to win due to his superior striking output, accuracy, and finishing ability. He has 11 KO wins, a higher significant strike accuracy (42% vs. 40%), and matches Quinonez in significant strike defense (both 55%). While both fighters have shown recent losses, Yanez's losses have come to elite competition, and he has a higher first-round finish rate (7 vs. 5). Both fighters have similar reach, but Yanez's aggressive boxing style has historically performed well against Jiu-Jitsu-based fighters with less consistent striking. Quinonez has an 84% takedown defense, but Yanez rarely attempts takedowns, so this is unlikely to be a major factor. Historical UFC data shows that fighters with Yanez's striking profile and experience edge in the division have a higher win rate over opponents with similar profiles to Quinonez. Yanez's durability and finishing ability make him the favorite, but Quinonez's submission threat keeps the confidence below the highest tier.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Adrian Yanez vs Cristian Quinonez can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Bonfim vs Brown can be found on the Bonfim vs Brown event page.
