Silva vs Cavalcanti: UFC Odds, Analysis & AI Pick

Mayra Bueno Silva vs Jacqueline Cavalcanti Fight Analysis

Fight Details

The highly anticipated Women’s Bantamweight clash between Mayra Bueno Silva and Jacqueline Cavalcanti is set to take place on Saturday, November 8, 2025, as part of the Preliminary Card at UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs Brown. The action will begin at 21:00 UTC (that’s 1:00 PM PT / 4:00 PM ET) inside the world-renowned UFC APEX facility in Las Vegas, Nevada. Although this bout sits outside the main event spotlight, it carries significant implications for both athletes’ standings in the division, with Silva currently ranked #10 and Cavalcanti just one spot below at #11 in the UFC Women’s Bantamweight rankings.

The Favorite and the Underdog

In the world of professional MMA betting, odds are more than numbers—they reflect public sentiment, recent form, and stylistic matchups. Heading into this contest, Jacqueline Cavalcanti emerges as the favorite, with top sportsbooks listing her at -280 (American odds) to secure the victory. This suggests that a $280 wager on Cavalcanti would net $100 in profit, underscoring the confidence oddsmakers and bettors have in her striking pedigree and undefeated run in the UFC (4-0).

Conversely, Mayra Bueno Silva enters as the underdog at +230, meaning a $100 stake could yield $230 if she pulls off the upset. While Silva boasts a deeper professional resume (16 fights with a 10-5-1 record) and elite submission credentials—7 of her 10 wins have come via tapout—her recent three-fight skid has tempered expectations. Still, her well-rounded skill set and proven chin make her a dangerous opponent for anyone in the top 15.

Narrative and Stakes

This matchup represents a crossroads for both athletes:

• Cavalcanti, 28, is on a trajectory fueled by crisp striking and airtight defense, boasting a 46% significant strike accuracy and a robust 70% striking defense rate. She has yet to be taken down in the UFC, showcasing her takedown defense at 85%, and has demonstrated the cardio to go the distance—her last three victories have all been decisions.

• Silva, 34, is a veteran grappler who made waves with her stunning armbar finish over Holly Holm in July 2023. With a 59% significant strike accuracy and 29% takedown success rate, Silva can impose her will on the mat and keep fights dangerously close. However, recent losses to elite opponents like Raquel Pennington and Macy Chiasson have exposed vulnerabilities, particularly in striking defense (52%).

For the viewer and bettor alike, this fight offers a compelling study in styles: the dynamic, undefeated striker versus the gritty, submission-hungry veteran. Will Cavalcanti continue her flawless UFC ascent, or can Silva rebound and reestablish herself among the division’s elite?

Stay tuned as we dive deeper into the key statistics, historical trends, and strategic breakdowns that will determine the outcome of this pivotal Women’s Bantamweight showdown.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Mayra Bueno Silva vs Jacqueline Cavalcanti can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Bonfim vs Brown can be found on the Bonfim vs Brown event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Jacqueline Cavalcanti Profile

Age: 28
Country: Portugal (Born in Brazil)
Fighting Style: Striker

Background

Jacqueline Cavalcanti burst onto the UFC scene in September 2023 and has since compiled an unblemished 4-0 record in the promotion (9-1-0 overall). Standing 6'8" with a 70" reach, she leverages height and range to control distance. Her crisp boxing combinations and footwork make her a difficult target, and she rarely engages in grappling—her 0% takedown accuracy confirms a pure striking approach.

Recent Form (Last 4 Fights)

• Feb. 2025: Def. Julia Avila – Unanimous Decision (3 rounds)
• Sep. 2024: Def. Nora Cornolle – Split Decision (3 rounds)
• Aug. 2024: Def. Josiane Nunes – Split Decision (3 rounds)
• Sep. 2023: Def. Zarah Fairn – Unanimous Decision (3 rounds)

Cavalcanti’s last four bouts demonstrate her durability and cardio, as she has gone the distance each time, eking out narrow victories with volume striking and defensive mastery.

Strengths

• Striking Defense (70%): She neutralizes opponents’ offense with excellent head movement and footwork.
• Cardio & Pace: Maintains high output over 15-minute fights, winning late rounds.
• Takedown Defense (85%): Virtually no ground exchanges; she stuffs any wrestling attempts.

Weaknesses

• Finishing Rate: Only 3 of 9 career wins by knockout, no submissions—often leaves results to the judges.
• Striking Accuracy (46%): Below division average; may struggle against opponents with tight guard or counter-strikers.
• Grappling Inexperience: Zero takedown attempts; vulnerable if taken into Silva’s submission realm.

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Mayra Bueno Silva Profile

Age: 34
Country: Brazil
Fighting Style: Well-rounded striker with elite Brazilian-jiu-jitsu credentials

Background

A veteran of 16 professional bouts (10-5-1), Silva debuted in the UFC in 2018 and immediately made waves by submitting Lina Lansberg and later legendary Holly Holm—all via armbar. At 5'6" with a 66.5" reach, she relies on explosive takedowns and slick transitions to the mat, where she is most dangerous.

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

• Feb. 2025: Loss to Jasmine Jasudavicius (decision)
• Jun. 2024: Loss to Macy Chiasson – TKO (Doctor’s Stoppage, Round 2)
• Jan. 2024: Loss to Raquel Pennington – Unanimous Decision (5 rounds)
• Jul. 2023: Def. Holly Holm – Submission (Armbar, Round 2)
• Feb. 2023: Def. Lina Lansberg – Submission (Armbar, Round 2)

After an impressive two-fight submission run, Silva has dropped three straight against top-15 competition, raising questions about her durability and adaptations.

Strengths

• Submission Expertise: 7 submission wins; lethal off of clinch or if she drags the fight to the ground.
• Striking Accuracy (59%): Finds her mark more than half the time, setting up takedowns.
• First-Round Finishes: Seven career fights end early, illustrating her sudden-death threat.

Weaknesses

• Striking Defense (52%): Allows a high volume of significant strikes; exposed against powerful strikers.
• Takedown Defense (64%): Vulnerable to strong wrestling—Cavalcanti may keep the fight standing.
• Recent Durability: Three losses in four bouts, including a doctor stoppage, suggest potential chin or gas‐tank issues.

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This stylistic clash—Cavalcanti’s technical boxing and stifling defense against Silva’s grappling prowess and submission acumen—will be the focal point when these two bantamweights collide on November 8.

Betting Odds & Line History

Current Betting Odds

As of the latest update on October 28, 2025, the betting market clearly favors Jacqueline Cavalcanti over Mayra Bueno Silva:

• Jacqueline Cavalcanti
  • Bovada: –280
  • BetOnline.ag: –270
• Mayra Bueno Silva
  • Bovada: +230
  • BetOnline.ag: +230

In plain terms, Cavalcanti is the favorite and Silva is the underdog. A $1,000 wager on Cavalcanti at her best available line (–270) would yield approximately $370 in profit, while the same stake on Silva at +230 would return about $2,300 should she pull off the upset.

Implied Probabilities

Bookmakers’ odds translate into rough winning chances:

• Cavalcanti (≈74%) – Reflects strong public and sharp confidence in her crisp striking and undefeated UFC run.
• Silva (≈30%) – Underscores her uphill battle after recent setbacks, despite her elite submission arsenal.

Line Movement & Betting Trends

Since the fight went live on the boards:

• Early Cavalcanti line opened around –300 at Bovada but quickly shaded in to –280 as significant money flowed in on the Portuguese striker.
• Silva’s line initially posted at +240 briefly, then drifted to +230 as bettors recognized the favorable payout for the Brazilian veteran.
• At BetOnline.ag, Cavalcanti ticked from –275 to –270, while Silva held steady at +230, indicating more punters backing the favorite there.

Overall, these shifts are modest, but they highlight a steady lean toward Cavalcanti across major books. The lack of any sharp reversals suggests no sudden injury reports or late-breaking news—just consistent demand on the favorite’s side.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

• To back Cavalcanti, BetOnline.ag currently offers the toughest line at –270 (versus –280 elsewhere).
• For those backing Silva, both Bovada and BetOnline.ag are identical at +230, so here your choice can be based on bonus offers, ease of deposit/withdrawal, or loyalty promotions rather than line value.

What Would a $1,000 Bet Yield?

• $1,000 on Cavalcanti at –270 → ~$370 profit + your $1,000 stake returned
• $1,000 on Silva at +230 → $2,300 profit + your $1,000 stake returned

Market Takeaway

The betting landscape for Mayra Bueno Silva vs Jacqueline Cavalcanti is one-sided in favor of Cavalcanti, but Silva’s deep submission pedigree still attracts value hunters. Bettors seeking maximum upside without risking too much might lock in +230 on Silva, while more conservative players will gravitate to the shorter price on Cavalcanti at BetOnline.ag. Keep an eye on any late line drift—if Cavalcanti dips into the –300 range or Silva creeps to +250, that could signal fresh money or inside intel shifting the market balance.