Winner: Gabriel Bonfim
Confidence Score: 62Gabriel Bonfim is younger (27 vs 34), has a higher ranking (#14), and a much stronger submission game (13 submission wins to Brown's 5). He also finishes fights faster (average fight time 7:58 vs 10:29) and has a higher takedown accuracy (56% vs 39%) and defense (76% vs 73%). Bonfim's significant strike defense is also superior (63% vs 55%), which is critical against a long, rangy striker like Brown. While Brown has a reach advantage and more high-level UFC experience, he has been susceptible to submissions and grappling-heavy opponents historically, and Bonfim's style and stats align with those who have given Brown trouble. Recent form and statistical trends from similar matchups (young, aggressive submission specialists vs older, long strikers) also favor Bonfim, though Brown's durability and reach keep this from being a high-confidence pick.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Gabriel Bonfim vs Randy Brown can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Bonfim vs Brown can be found on the Bonfim vs Brown event page.
