Winner: Vicente Luque
Confidence Score: 64Vicente Luque is the more proven and versatile welterweight, with significant UFC experience against a higher level of competition and a balanced finishing record (11 KOs, 9 submissions). He has a more complete skill set, featuring strong Muay Thai striking, good submission skills, and solid takedown defense (62%). Luque's takedown accuracy (52%) and ability to mix up his attacks could exploit Joel Alvarez's historically weak takedown defense (40%). While Alvarez has a height and reach advantage, and a dangerous submission game, he has struggled when pressured by aggressive, well-rounded opponents—especially those who can mix in wrestling. Luque's durability and finishing ability, combined with Alvarez's lack of wrestling threat (0% takedown accuracy), give Luque a clear edge in most scenarios. Recent form and historical data on similar matchups (fighters with higher-level UFC experience, better takedown defense, and more well-rounded skill sets) also favor Luque.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Vicente Luque vs Joel Alvarez can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Oliveira vs Gamrot can be found on the Oliveira vs Gamrot event page.