Winner: Luan Lacerda
Confidence Score: 68Luan Lacerda is the more likely winner due to his superior grappling and submission skills, with 10 of his 12 wins coming by submission and a significantly higher takedown defense (75%) compared to Saimon Oliveira's 39%. Lacerda also has a slight edge in striking accuracy (44% vs 40%) and has shown the ability to avoid damage with a better significant strike defense (48% vs 47%). While both fighters are on losing streaks, Oliveira's three UFC losses (two by KO/TKO) indicate a vulnerability to grapplers and finishers. Lacerda's freestyle approach and higher takedown defense make him better equipped to neutralize Oliveira's striking and capitalize on ground opportunities, which is a recurring theme in similar bantamweight matchups historically. The pick is not very high confidence due to both fighters' recent struggles and lack of UFC wins, but stylistically, Lacerda has the clearer path to victory.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Luan Lacerda vs Saimon Oliveira can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Oliveira vs Gamrot can be found on the Oliveira vs Gamrot event page.