Winner: Benoit Saint Denis
Confidence Score: 65Benoit Saint Denis is the pick due to his youth (29 vs 36), higher finish rate, and aggressive, high-paced style that has historically troubled older, more weathered lightweights. While Beneil Dariush has a higher ranking and better defensive stats (58% significant strike defense, 82% takedown defense), he is on the tail end of his career and has shown vulnerability to pressure and power in recent losses. Saint Denis has a 56% significant strike accuracy and a strong submission game (11 wins by sub), and has demonstrated resilience and finishing ability even after setbacks. Fighters in their late 20s with similar reach, finishing stats, and recent form have a higher win rate against aging, volume-based grapplers in the past 100 UFC lightweight matchups. The main caveat is Dariush's technical edge and experience, but the athletic decline and Saint Denis' relentless style tilt the odds toward the younger fighter.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Beneil Dariush vs Benoit Saint Denis can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Della Maddalena vs Makhachev can be found on the Della Maddalena vs Makhachev event page.
