Tsarukyan vs Hooker: UFC Odds, Analysis & AI Pick

Arman Tsarukyan vs Dan Hooker fight analysis

Introduction

The lightweight division heats up on November 22, 2025, when rising Armenian contender Arman Tsarukyan (#2 in the UFC rankings) squares off against New Zealand veteran Dan Hooker (#7) at the ABHA Arena in Doha, Qatar. As part of the Main Card for UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs Hooker, this pivotal matchup is scheduled to begin at 18:00 UTC (21:00 local Doha time) and promises fireworks from the opening bell. The stakes are high for both athletes: Tsarukyan aims to maintain his elite standing and chase a title shot, while Hooker looks to reestablish himself among the division’s elite after a series of hard-fought battles.

Venue and Date

• Event: UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs Hooker
• Date: Saturday, November 22, 2025
• Time: 18:00 UTC / 21:00 GST
• Location: ABHA Arena, Doha, Qatar

Fighters at a Glance

• Arman Tsarukyan (22–3–0)
  • Age: 28 | Height: 5’7” (67″) | Reach: 72.5″
  • Style: Kickboxer with sharp striking and solid takedown offense (37% accuracy)
  • Recent Form: 4–1 in UFC, with wins over Charles Oliveira, Beneil Dariush, Joaquim Silva
• Dan Hooker (24–12–0)
  • Age: 35 | Height: 6’0” (72″) | Reach: 75″
  • Style: MMA all-rounder known for heavy hands and heavy pace, with 12 first-round finishes
  • Recent Form: 3–2 in UFC, including victories over Mateusz Gamrot and Jalin Turner

Betting Odds: Favorite vs. Underdog

All major sportsbooks have installed Tsarukyan as the clear favorite, with American odds hovering around –385 to –410 (e.g., –385 at BetRivers, –400 at Caesars, –405 at BetOnline.ag). His combination of youth, explosive striking, and grappling threat makes him a −400 chalk in most betting lines.
Conversely, Dan Hooker enters as the underdog at +295 to +310 (e.g., +295 at BetRivers, +310 at Caesars, +305 at BetOnline.ag). Hooker’s veteran savvy and willingness to engage in high-stakes firefights could yield a lucrative payout for risk-tolerant bettors willing to back the New Zealander.

Whether you’re a fan of technical striking, a grapple-heavy approach, or simply chasing value on the underdog, this contest offers intriguing angles on November 22. In the sections that follow, we’ll dive deeper into each fighter’s strengths, key matchups, historical trends, and where the line might move as fight night approaches. Strap in—this lightweight showdown in Doha has all the makings of a classic.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Arman Tsarukyan vs Dan Hooker can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Tsarukyan vs Hooker can be found on the Tsarukyan vs Hooker event page.

Matchup & Fighter Profiles

Arman Tsarukyan Profile

Background

• Age: 28
• Country: Represents Armenia (Born in Georgia)
• Fighting Style: Kickboxer with heavy emphasis on precision striking and a developing wrestling base

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

1. Win vs. Charles Oliveira – Decision (Split), Apr. 13, 2024
2. Win vs. Beneil Dariush – TKO Round 1 (1:04), Dec. 2, 2023
3. Win vs. Joaquim Silva – TKO Round 3 (3:25), June 17, 2023
4. Win vs. Damir Ismagulov – Decision (Unanimous), Dec. 17, 2022
5. Loss vs. Mateusz Gamrot – Decision (Unanimous), June 25, 2022

Tsarukyan has rattled off four wins in his last five Octagon appearances, showcasing both fight-ending power (8 first-round finishes in his career) and the ability to grind out championship-caliber decisions.

Strengths

• Striking Accuracy (49%): Lands nearly half of his significant strikes, mixing crisp combinations with head-body variety.
• Takedown Offense (37%): Converts more than one-third of his wrestling entries, keeping opponents guessing.
• Finishing Instinct: 9 KOs and 5 submissions in a 22-win career; heavy hands that accelerate pace.
• Adaptability: Comfortable both on the feet and scrambling, with a developing submission game.

Weaknesses

• Size & Reach: At 5’7″ (67″ reach) he concedes many inches to rangier lightweights like Hooker.
• Takedown Defense (75%): While respectable, it’s slightly below Hooker’s 78% and may be tested by heavy-takedown chains.
• Average Fight Time (12:36): Tends to engage in long battles, which could play into Hooker’s energy-saving style.

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Dan Hooker Profile

Background

• Age: 35
• Country: New Zealand
• Fighting Style: MMA all-rounder renowned for heavy hands, forward pressure and warrior mentality

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

1. Win vs. Mateusz Gamrot – Decision (Split), Aug. 17, 2024
2. Win vs. Jalin Turner – Decision (Split), July 8, 2023
3. Win vs. Claudio Puelles – KO/TKO Round 2 (4:06), Nov. 12, 2022
4. Loss vs. Arnold Allen – KO/TKO Round 1 (2:33), Mar. 19, 2022
5. Loss vs. Islam Makhachev – Submission Round 1 (2:25), Oct. 30, 2021

Hooker has alternated peaks and valleys, stringing together three big wins before falling short against two of the division’s elite. His veteran savvy and output remain dangerous.

Strengths

• Volume Striking: A 49% significant-strike accuracy combined with relentless output wears opponents down.
• Takedown Defense (78%): Stops nearly four-fifths of opponent takedown attempts, forcing fighters to stand and trade.
• Finishing Ability: 11 KOs and 7 submissions; 12 first-round finishes demonstrate explosive power early.
• Reach & Size: At 6’0″ with a 75″ reach, controls distance with jabs and powerful leg kicks.

Weaknesses

• Striking Defense (51%): Allows half of significant strikes thrown at him, indicating vulnerability to counters.
• Takedown Offense (34%): Below-average wrestling efficiency means he’ll struggle to keep Tsarukyan guessing on the mat.
• Age & Pace: At 35, some decline in recovery and speed may impede his high-pressure attack late in the fight.
• Average Fight Time (10:13): Tends to finish or be finished early, suggesting potential trouble in deep waters.

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Head-to-Head Dynamics

• Size vs. Speed: Hooker’s height and reach advantage will force Tsarukyan to work on the inside, where the Armenian’s explosive combinations and takedown setups shine.
• Grappling Exchanges: Tsarukyan holds a slight edge in takedown offense, but Hooker’s superior defense can neutralize early wrestling.
• Striking Battles: Both excel at 49% significant-strike accuracy, yet Hooker’s volume (average fight time just over 10 minutes) contrasts with Tsarukyan’s more measured approach (12½ minutes).
• Cardio & Durability: Tsarukyan’s youth and pace could pay dividends in championship rounds, while Hooker must capitalize early to avoid long scrambles.

This clash of styles—rangy veteran vs. compact striker—creates a chess match inside the Octagon, where incremental advantages in accuracy, pace, and grappling could dictate the outcome.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

As fight night approaches, the betting market clearly favors Arman Tsarukyan over Dan Hooker. Below is a snapshot of the top American sportsbooks:

• Arman Tsarukyan (Favorite)
  • BetRivers: −385
  • Caesars: −400
  • BetOnline.ag: −405
  • DraftKings: −380
  • FanDuel: −370 ← Best price for Tsarukyan backers
  • Bovada: −410
• Dan Hooker (Underdog)
  • BetRivers: +295
  • Caesars: +310 ← Best price for Hooker backers
  • BetOnline.ag: +305
  • DraftKings: +300
  • FanDuel: +265
  • Bovada: +305

Key Takeaways

• Tsarukyan is a heavy favorite across the board, with odds clustering between −370 and −410.
• Hooker is a sizable underdog, sporting lines from +265 up to +310.
• FanDuel’s −370 is the softest Tsarukyan line, offering the best value to back the favorite.
• Caesars’ +310 is the juiciest Hooker line, delivering maximum upside to underdog bettors.

Line Movement Analysis

A review of the odds history shows remarkably stable markets for this matchup:

• Tsarukyan’s line has ping-ponged ever so slightly between −410 and −400 at Bovada, settling near −400 as of November 10.
• Hooker’s line likewise oscillated between +300 and +305 at Bovada, drifting from an initial +335 at BetOnline.ag down to +310 on Caesars.
• There are no dramatic swings—just modest tightening that suggests balanced action on both sides, with sharp books trimming juice as the event nears.

This stability indicates confident money on both camps without any last-minute panic or public “bandwagon” influx.

Payout Scenarios & Implied Probabilities

If you’re weighing a $1,000 wager on either fighter based on the current best odds:

• Backing Tsarukyan at −370 (FanDuel)

  • Your profit: $270
  • Total return: $1,270
  • Implied chance of victory: roughly 79%

• Backing Hooker at +310 (Caesars)

  • Your profit: $3,100
  • Total return: $4,100
  • Implied chance of victory: roughly 24%

Who to Bet?

• If you seek upside and don’t mind risk, Hooker at +310 on Caesars offers an attractive payday.
• If you want the safest route on the favorite, Tsarukyan at −370 on FanDuel minimizes juice and maximizes your win probability.

With lines locked in tight and no major movement signals, bettors can choose based on value appetite rather than chasing line swings. Whether you favor the rising Armenian star or the battle-tested New Zealander, you now know exactly where to find the best price—and what a $1,000 bet can net you on fight night.