Oezdemir vs Menifield: UFC Odds, Analysis & AI Pick

Volkan Oezdemir vs Alonzo Menifield fight analysis

Fight Overview

Get ready for an electrifying Light Heavyweight showdown as Volkan Oezdemir takes on Alonzo Menifield on Saturday, November 22, 2025, live from the ABHA Arena in Doha, Qatar. This Main Card clash at UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs Hooker is scheduled to begin at 18:00 local time (UTC+03:00), with the official odds opening at BetOnline.ag shortly thereafter. Ranked #9 in the division, Oezdemir enters as the clear favorite at -230, while the surging #14 contender Menifield is the underdog at +195, setting the stage for an intriguing stylistic battle under the bright lights of the desert.

Context & Stakes

Both athletes arrive with plenty on the line:

• Volkan Oezdemir (20-8-0), the Swiss powerhouse known as “No Time,” holds a reputation for explosive striking and first-round fireworks (14 early finishes). His 49% significant strike accuracy and 55% defense showcase a balanced offensive toolkit, while his 80% takedown defense makes him tough to grind down.
• Alonzo Menifield (17-5-1), the American brawler nicknamed “The Carnage King,” has amassed 10 first-round stoppages, boasting a 53% striking accuracy and 51% defense. His 31% takedown success rate adds an extra dimension to his well-rounded, freestyle approach.

A victory for Oezdemir would reinforce his position as a top-10 threat and potentially propel him toward a title eliminator. For Menifield, another upset could catapult him into the top 10, marking back-to-back wins over ranked opponents after his unanimous decision over Oumar Sy earlier this year.

Key Storylines

1. Striking vs. Striker: Both men rely on heavy hands and precision. Oezdemir’s slightly larger frame (74″ height, 75″ reach) meets Menifield’s compact 72″ frame and longer 76″ reach.
2. Experience Edge: Oezdemir made his UFC debut in February 2017, while Menifield stepped into the Octagon in January 2019. The Swiss veteran’s eight-fight UFC tenure contrasts with Menifield’s rapid rise through highlight-reel knockouts.
3. Recent Form: Oezdemir is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Carlos Ulberg, looking to bounce back. Menifield enters on a two-fight win streak, having secured both split and unanimous decisions in his last pair of outings.
4. Odds & Value: With Oezdemir installed as the favorite at -230, bettors see him as the more complete fighter. However, Menifield’s +195 line offers significant upside if you believe in his power and tenacity.

Why This Matters

This clash represents a crossroads in the Light Heavyweight division. A decisive win for either man could shift the pecking order and influence matchmaking as the UFC heads into 2026. Whether you’re a casual fan, a data-driven bettor, or a die-hard fight analyst, Oezdemir vs Menifield promises fireworks, high-level technique, and potential pivotal ramifications in the chase for title contention.

Stay tuned as we break down striking metrics, historical trends, and fight IQ in the sections to follow, ensuring you have all the insights to make an informed prediction (and, for the gamblers among us, a profitable one).

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Volkan Oezdemir vs Alonzo Menifield can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Tsarukyan vs Hooker can be found on the Tsarukyan vs Hooker event page.

Matchup & Fighter Profiles

Volkan Oezdemir

Background

• Age: 36
• Country: Switzerland
• Fighting Style: Striker (“No Time”)
• Physicals: 6’2″ (74″) height, 75″ reach, 206 lb

Recent Form (Last 5 UFC Bouts)

1. Nov. 23, 2024 – Loss vs Carlos Ulberg (Decision – Unanimous)
2. Jun. 22, 2024 – Win vs Johnny Walker (KO/TKO, R1 2:28)
3. Sep. 2, 2023 – Win vs Bogdan Guskov (Submission, R1 3:46)
4. Oct. 22, 2022 – Loss vs Nikita Krylov (Decision – Unanimous)
5. Jul. 23, 2022 – Win vs Paul Craig (Decision – Unanimous)

Volkan enters off a disappointing unanimous decision loss to Carlos Ulberg, snapping a two-fight win streak. His highlight reel includes a first-round stoppage of Johnny Walker and a slick submission of Bogdan Guskov, showcasing his striking power and evolving ground game.

Strengths

• Explosive Finisher: 13 KOs and 14 first-round finishes out of 20 career wins.
• Defensive Resilience: 55% significant strike defense and 80% takedown defense make him difficult to damage or control.
• Versatility: Holds wins via knockout, submission and decision, reflecting an all-around skill set.
• Reach & Length: 75″ reach gives him a slight edge in range management.

Weaknesses

• Inconsistent Accuracy: 49% significant strike accuracy means many missed punches and potential counters.
• Pacing Issues: Average fight time of 9:57 suggests he can fade if unable to secure an early finish.
• Vulnerable to Volume Strikers: Recent decision loss to Ulberg highlighted struggles against high-output opponents who pressure him for all three rounds.

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Alonzo Menifield

Background

• Age: 37
• Country: United States
• Fighting Style: Freestyle (“The Carnage King”)
• Physicals: 6’0″ (72″) height, 76″ reach, 206 lb

Recent Form (Last 5 UFC Bouts)

1. Jun. 14, 2025 – Win vs Oumar Sy (Decision – Unanimous)
2. Feb. 22, 2025 – Win vs Julius Walker (Decision – Split)
3. Aug. 3, 2024 – Loss vs Azamat Murzakanov (KO/TKO, R2 3:18)
4. May 11, 2024 – Loss vs Carlos Ulberg (KO/TKO, R1 0:12)
5. Dec. 16, 2023 – Win vs Dustin Jacoby (Decision – Unanimous)

Menifield is riding a two-fight winning streak with back-to-back decision victories after suffering stoppage losses in 2024. His most recent unanimous decision over Oumar Sy showcased improved control and cardio over 15 minutes.

Strengths

• High Precision: 53% significant strike accuracy—one of the best marks in the division.
• Fast Starter: 10 first-round finishes; average fight time of 7:53 indicates quick aggression pays dividends.
• Well-Rounded Grappling: 31% takedown accuracy and 78% defense offer both offensive and defensive wrestling.
• Durability: Bounced back from two KO losses with solid performances, proving resilience.

Weaknesses

• Defense Under Pressure: 51% significant strike defense means he still absorbs a high volume of strikes.
• Susceptible Early: Two KO/TKO losses in his last five fights highlight occasional lapses in head movement and guard.
• Decision Reliant: Recent wins came via decision, suggesting diminishing stopping power against top-level foes.

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Comparative Analysis

• Experience & Age: Oezdemir (36, UFC since 2017) vs Menifield (37, UFC since 2019). Slight veteran edge to Volkan.
• Striking Metrics: Menifield lands more efficiently (53% vs 49%) but defends fewer strikes (51% vs 55%).
• Grappling Metrics: Both have solid takedown defense (Oezdemir 80%, Menifield 78%), though Menifield poses a marginally greater threat on the mat (31% TD accuracy vs 29%).
• Finishing Ability: Oezdemir’s 14 first-round finishes outmatch Menifield’s 10, but Menifield’s early aggression can catch a more measured Volkan unprepared.

This clash of power striker versus precision brawler will hinge on who imposes their game plan early—Volkan’s resilience and multifaceted offense or Menifield’s pinpoint striking and grapple setups. Bettors and fans alike should watch for early fireworks and potential momentum shifts as both men hunt for a fast finish.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Betting Lines

As of November 13, 2025, the official head-to-head odds at BetOnline.ag stand at:

• Volkan Oezdemir: –230 (favorite)
• Alonzo Menifield: +195 (underdog)

This 425-point spread underscores the oddsmakers’ view that Oezdemir enters with a significant edge. Menifield’s +195 line, however, still represents solid value for bettors willing to back the American’s knockout power and momentum.

Line Movement & Market Reaction

A quick look at the line history reveals moderate but noteworthy shifts:

• On November 12, 2025, the opening odds were Oezdemir –260 and Menifield +220.
• By November 13, 2025, these adjusted to –230 (Oezdemir) and +195 (Menifield).

That 30-point swing on both sides signals steady money pushing the favorite’s line down and shortening the underdog’s payout. In plain terms, more bettors have pegged Volkan to win, while some value-seekers are jumping on Menifield before his price shortens further.

Implied Probability & Potential Payouts

Based on the current odds, the implied chance to win is roughly:

• Volkan Oezdemir: ~70%
• Alonzo Menifield: ~34%

If you were to stake $1,000 on either fighter at these lines, here’s what you’d see:

• Backing Oezdemir at –230
– Profit on win: $434.78
– Total return (stake + profit): $1,434.78

• Backing Menifield at +195
– Profit on win: $1,950
– Total return (stake + profit): $2,950

Clearly, a $1,000 wager on Menifield yields more than four times the profit of the same bet on Oezdemir—at the cost of a lower probability.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

While multiple sportsbooks offer UFC lines, BetOnline.ag currently provides the only quoted market for Oezdemir vs. Menifield in our dataset. They feature a competitive juice on both sides, regularly update odds in real time, and have a strong track record for timely payouts. For sharp line movement and early-value hunting, BetOnline.ag is our top pick for this matchup.

Key Takeaways

• Favorite & Underdog: Volkan Oezdemir is the clear favorite at –230; Alonzo Menifield is a rewarding underdog at +195.
• Line Shifts: A 30-point move in one day highlights early betting momentum on “No Time,” while “The Carnage King” still holds upside.
• Payout vs. Probability: $1,000 on Menifield returns $2,950 (vs. $1,434.78 on Oezdemir), reflecting higher risk for higher reward.
• Shop Early: If you believe in a Menifield upset, locking in +195 now is wiser than waiting for further shortening.

Whether you lean toward Oezdemir’s seasoned striking arsenal or Menifield’s aggressive power game, these odds and their recent shifts should factor heavily into your final pick. Happy betting!