Spivac vs Gaziev Fight Analysis: Odds, Stats & Picks

Serghei Spivac vs Shamil Gaziev Fight Analysis

Introduction

This heavyweight showdown is set to take place on Saturday, November 22, 2025, at the ABHA Arena in Doha, Qatar, headlining the main card of UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs Hooker. The octagon doors open at 18:00 UTC (21:00 local time), as two of the division’s most dangerous finishers—#7-ranked Serghei Spivac and #11-ranked Shamil Gaziev—collide in what promises to be an explosive main-card attraction.

Both athletes bring contrasting styles, similar power, and formidable records into this matchup. Spivac (17-6-0) hailing from Moldova is riding a mixed streak, most recently dropping unanimous decision to Waldo Cortes-Acosta and KO loss to Jailton Almeida. He’s a Sambo specialist with a 62% takedown accuracy, 8 submission victories, and an average fight time of just under eight minutes (07:54). With +155 opening odds at BetOnline.ag, Spivac enters as the underdog, looking to bounce back and secure his position among the elite heavyweights.

On the other side, Gaziev (14-1-0) represents Bahrain and Russia’s famed Dagestani wrestling schools. He boasts 9 first-round finishes, a 48% significant striking accuracy, and an impressive 83% takedown defense. After avenging a loss to Jairzinho Rozenstruik earlier this year, Gaziev has strung together two back-to-back victories, most recently dispatching Thomas Petersen by first-round TKO. Betting markets list him as the favorite at −180 odds, reflecting strong public and sharp support for his aggressive, well-rounded skill set.

Why This Fight Matters

1. Divisional Implications: A victory for Spivac could catapult him back toward the top-five mix, while Gaziev can stake his claim as a legitimate title contender with another high-profile win.
2. Styles Contrast: Spivac’s grappling pedigree and submission prowess contrast sharply with Gaziev’s powerful striking and takedown defense, setting the stage for a tactical chess match.
3. Betting Angle: With Gaziev favored and Spivac offering a lucrative underdog payout, bettors must weigh recent form against stylistic matchups to find value.

Quick Facts

• Event: UFC Fight Night – Tsarukyan vs Hooker
• Date & Time: November 22, 2025 | 18:00 UTC / 21:00 Doha local
• Venue: ABHA Arena, Doha, Qatar
• Weight Class: Heavyweight (up to 265 lb)
• Odds (BetOnline.ag):
  • Shamil Gaziev: −180 (favorite)
  • Serghei Spivac: +155 (underdog)

As the fighters prepare to make their walkouts under the bright lights of the ABHA Arena, the stakes could not be higher. Will Gaziev consolidate his rapid rise among the division’s upper echelon, or can Spivac harness his Sambo arsenal to deliver a statement-making upset? Read on for a deeper breakdown of each athlete’s toolkit, recent form, and the key factors that might decide this pivotal heavyweight clash.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Serghei Spivac vs Shamil Gaziev can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Tsarukyan vs Hooker can be found on the Tsarukyan vs Hooker event page.

Matchup Overview and Fighter Profiles

Serghei Spivac: Background and Recent Form

Age: 30
Country: Moldova
Fighting Style: Sambo

Serghei Spivac (17-6-0) is a Sambo specialist who made his UFC debut in May 2019 and quickly earned a reputation for heavy top-control and slick submission transitions. At 6'3" with a 78" reach, “The Polar Bear” blends wrestling entries with brutal ground-and-pound, boasting 8 submission victories and 11 first-round finishes in his career. He carries an average fight time of 7:54 and boasts a 62% takedown accuracy, underpinned by a solid 48% significant strike accuracy.

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

• June 7, 2025 – Loss vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Decision – Unanimous)
• Jan. 18, 2025 – Loss vs Jailton Almeida (KO/TKO, R1 4:53)
• Aug. 10, 2024 – Win vs Marcin Tybura (Submission, R1 1:44)
• Sept. 2, 2023 – Loss vs Ciryl Gane (KO/TKO, R2 3:44)
• Feb. 5, 2023 – Win vs Derrick Lewis (Submission, R1 3:05)

Spivac arrives on a two-fight skid, having been out-wrestled by Almeida and out-grappled in a decision defeat to Cortes-Acosta. His lone highlight was a first-round choke over Tybura, demonstrating his potent grappling against durable opponents.

Strengths

• High Takedown Volume: 62% accuracy allows Spivac to dictate geography and neutralize striking threats.
• Submission Savvy: Eight career subs; thrives in scrambles and against opponents slow to defend on the mat.
• Finishing Instinct: 11 first-round stoppages shows he can end fights quickly once he secures dominance.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Defense (64%): Vulnerable to explosive wrestlers and sprawl-and-brawl specialists, as seen against Almeida.
• Striking Defense (50%): Half of opponents’ significant strikes land, leaving him open to elite strikers.
• Durability Questions: Four stoppage losses in six defeats suggest trouble with heavy hitters when standing.

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Shamil Gaziev: Background and Recent Form

Age: 35
Country: Bahrain (Born Khunzakh, Dagestan, Russia)
Fighting Style: MMA / Wrestling

Shamil Gaziev (14-1-0) blends Dagestani wrestling roots with sharp power striking. Standing 6'4" with a 78.5" reach, he’s finished 9 opponents in the first round—six by knockout and three by submission. Gaziev’s 83% takedown defense frustrates grapplers, while his 48% striking accuracy and 45% takedown accuracy provide a balanced offensive attack.

Recent Form (Last 4 Fights)

• Feb. 1, 2025 – Win vs Thomas Petersen (KO/TKO, R1 3:12)
• Aug. 3, 2024 – Win vs Dontale Mayes (Decision – Unanimous)
• Mar. 2, 2024 – Loss vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik (KO/TKO, R4 5:00)
• Dec. 16, 2023 – Win vs Martin Buday (KO/TKO, R2 0:56)

After a humbling KO loss to Rozenstruik, Gaziev has rattled off two stoppages and a clear decision, showcasing improved pacing and defensive awareness in later rounds.

Strengths

• Takedown Defense (83%): One of the division’s best; stymies wrestlers looking to bring the fight to the mat.
• First-Round Power: Nine early finishes highlight his ability to capitalize on openings immediately.
• Balanced Offense: Nearly even striking and grappling outputs make him unpredictable.

Weaknesses

• Striking Defense (45%): Concedes a high percentage of significant strikes, leaving him open in brawls.
• Takedown Offense (30%): Below-average takedown accuracy means he can struggle to impose wrestling on elite grapplers.
• Age & Pace: At 35, recovery and cardio in deep waters could become an issue against younger, relentless pressure.

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This collision of styles—Spivac’s relentless grappling versus Gaziev’s takedown defense and knockout power—creates a compelling chess match. Understanding each fighter’s recent trajectory and statistical profile is crucial for predicting which skill set will prevail on fight night.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

• Shamil Gaziev: −180 (favorite)
• Serghei Spivac: +155 (underdog)
• Sportsbook Recommendation: BetOnline.ag

As things stand, Gaziev is firmly installed as the betting favorite, priced at −180 across major books like BetOnline.ag, while Spivac enters the cage as the underdog at +155. That 335-point gap on the moneyline reflects public and sharp money siding with Gaziev’s recent momentum and defensive acumen. If you’re shopping for the best price, BetOnline.ag currently offers the most competitive lines and a user-friendly interface, making it our top pick for wagering on this heavyweight clash.

Line Movement & Key Swings

Understanding how the line has shifted can provide insight into where smart money has gone:

Shamil Gaziev (−180)

• Nov 12, 18:19 UTC: −170
• Nov 12, 18:29 UTC: −160
• Nov 12, 18:39 UTC: −145 ← early sharp juice
• Nov 12, 19:39 UTC: −150
• Nov 12, 20:29 UTC: −160
• Nov 13, 08:20 UTC: −180 ← late money drives price back

Serghei Spivac (+155)

• Nov 12, 18:19 UTC: +145
• Nov 12, 18:29 UTC: +140
• Nov 12, 18:39 UTC: +125 ← underdog value compressed
• Nov 12, 19:39 UTC: +130
• Nov 12, 20:29 UTC: +140
• Nov 13, 08:20 UTC: +155 ← significant drift

Notable swings:

1. On the evening of November 12, Gaziev dipped to −145 as early bettors backed him aggressively, then later money pushed him out to −180.
2. Conversely, Spivac’s line compressed to +125 before late underdog bets drove it back up to +155, suggesting both value grabs and fading trends at different times.

These swings demonstrate a tug-of-war between bettors who believe in Gaziev’s wrestling-striking mix and those banking on Spivac’s grappling pedigree and upset potential.

Payout Scenarios

If you were to stake $1,000 on either fighter, here’s what your returns would look like:

• $1,000 on Shamil Gaziev (−180):
  • Profit: $556
  • Total Return: $1,556

• $1,000 on Serghei Spivac (+155):
  • Profit: $1,550
  • Total Return: $2,550

Those figures illustrate why some bettors are drawn to Spivac despite his underdog status—the payout nearly triples your stake if he pulls off the upset.

Implied Probabilities

While nobody bets purely on probability math, the current odds translate roughly to:

• Gaziev: ~64% chance to win
• Spivac: ~39% chance to win

The combined total exceeds 100% due to the sportsbook’s built-in margin, but these figures give a snapshot of how the market views each fighter’s likelihood of success.

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With Gaziev as the favorite and Spivac offering significant underdog value, your choice may come down to risk tolerance: locking in a “safer” favorite with a modest return, or chasing a larger payday by betting on the Moldovan grappler. Either way, BetOnline.ag remains the go-to shop for these lines—just be prepared for first-round fireworks and shifting odds right up until the opening bell.