Winner: Bogdan Grad
Confidence Score: 85Bogdan Grad has a significant experience edge with a 15-3 record and a proven finishing ability (9 KOs, 3 submissions, 8 first-round finishes). He has solid striking stats (52% accuracy, 50% defense) and respectable grappling (36% takedown accuracy, 75% defense). His karate base, combined with a good reach for featherweight (70"), gives him the tools to control range and dictate the pace. Luke Riley, on the other hand, is making his UFC debut and has no available UFC-level stats or fight history, which is a major red flag when facing a proven finisher like Grad. Historical data shows that debuting fighters with no UFC experience or statistical profile rarely beat established, well-rounded finishers in their first outing—especially when the established fighter is in his prime (age 29) and has a history of fast starts. Grad's consistency, experience, and finishing rate make him the clear favorite.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Bogdan Grad vs Luke Riley can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Tsarukyan vs Hooker can be found on the Tsarukyan vs Hooker event page.
