Winner: Ismail Naurdiev
Confidence Score: 74Ismail Naurdiev has a significant edge in experience, with 32 professional fights compared to Ryan Loder's 10. Naurdiev has a more proven finishing ability, with 12 knockouts and 6 submissions, and 15 first-round finishes, indicating strong early fight performance. Statistically, Naurdiev is more well-rounded, boasting higher takedown accuracy (41% vs 14%) and a solid takedown defense (73%). His significant strike defense (65%) is also notably better than Loder's (50%), making him less likely to be caught by a big shot. While Loder has a slightly higher striking accuracy (71%), his low average fight time and lack of first-round finishes suggest he hasn't faced the same level of competition or adversity. Both fighters are wrestlers by trade, but Naurdiev's more balanced skill set and history against higher-level opposition give him the edge. Additionally, fighters aged 28 with similar reach and experience profiles have historically outperformed older, less-tested wrestlers in the UFC's middleweight division.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Ismail Naurdiev vs Ryan Loder can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Tsarukyan vs Hooker can be found on the Tsarukyan vs Hooker event page.
