Winner: Rafael Estevam
Confidence Score: 64Rafael Estevam holds an undefeated record (14-0) and has shown strong all-around MMA skills with a high significant strike accuracy (54%) and solid takedown defense (67%). He is younger (29 vs 33), has a slight edge in durability, and has consistently won against UFC-level opposition, including recent wins over Charles Johnson, Jesus Aguilar, and Felipe Bunes. Allan Nascimento is a dangerous submission artist (14 submission wins) but has a much lower takedown defense (31%), which is a significant liability against Estevam's wrestling and top control. While Nascimento is more accurate with significant strikes (60%), he struggles to keep fights standing and has shown vulnerability to being controlled on the ground. Historically, undefeated, younger fighters with Estevam's profile and solid defensive metrics outperform older submission specialists with poor takedown defense in the flyweight division. The pick is Estevam, but the confidence is moderate due to Nascimento's submission threat and finishing ability.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Allan Nascimento vs Rafael Estevam can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Garcia vs Onama can be found on the Garcia vs Onama event page.