Winner: Ariane Carnelossi
Confidence Score: 65Ariane Carnelossi has a significant edge in striking and offensive wrestling. She boasts a 15-3 record with 9 KOs and a 56% takedown accuracy, indicating strong offensive grappling. Her Muay Thai background gives her a clear advantage in striking exchanges, and she has a higher significant strike accuracy (40% vs 33%) and more finishes. While her takedown defense is very poor (14%), Talita Alencar's takedown accuracy is only 21%, and she averages less offensive output on the feet. Alencar is a strong grappler with a 6-1-1 record and better defensive stats (54% strike defense, 50% takedown defense), but her lack of striking threat and low finishing rate by KO limits her upside against a physically strong, aggressive opponent like Carnelossi. Historically, fighters with Carnelossi's style and finishing ability have greater success against grapplers who struggle to get the fight down consistently. If Carnelossi can keep it standing or get on top, she should be able to control the fight and do more damage. The pick is Carnelossi, but the low takedown defense does leave some risk if Alencar can chain wrestle effectively.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Talita Alencar vs Ariane Carnelossi can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Garcia vs Onama can be found on the Garcia vs Onama event page.
