UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs Yan 2 Betting Odds & AI Pick

Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan fight analysis

Fight Overview

On December 7, 2025, Merab Dvalishvili and Petr Yan will collide in a highly anticipated rematch for the UFC Bantamweight Title. This showdown headlines UFC 323 at the world-famous T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. Fans around the globe can tune in via pay-per-view, as the main card kicks off at midnight ET, with the championship tilt expected to hit the Octagon in the early hours of December 7 (approximately 5:30 UTC).

This bout marks the second time these two elite strikers and grapplers have shared the cage. Their first encounter in March 2023 saw Dvalishvili grind out a unanimous decision victory over Yan, halting Petr’s momentum at the time. Since then, both athletes have added signature performances to their resumes: Merab defended his title against top contenders like Cory Sandhagen, while Yan has rattled off three consecutive unanimous decision wins against Marcus McGhee, Deiveson Figueiredo, and Song Yadong.

Where and When

• Event: UFC 323 “Dvalishvili vs Yan 2”
• Date: Sunday, December 7, 2025
• Venue: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
• Main Card Start: 12:00 AM ET (9:00 PM PT on December 6)
• Scheduled Fight Time: Approximately 5:30 UTC

Whether you’re watching live from the arena, gathering at your favorite sportsbook, or streaming at home, this bout promises elite pace, relentless wrestling exchanges, and the technical striking both fighters are known for.

Betting Odds & Key Storylines

Heading into this rematch, Merab Dvalishvili is the clear betting favorite with opening lines around –550 (on Caesars), reflecting his championship pedigree, superior wrestling base, and historic gas tank that has frustrated every opponent at 135 lb. Dvalishvili’s wrestling control—85 % takedown defense and 38 % takedown accuracy—combined with a relentless pace (average fight time 17:08, zero first-round finishes) make him a daunting challenge for any challenger.

Conversely, Petr Yan arrives as the underdog at roughly +400, despite boasting a decorated record (19-5-0), 54 % significant strike accuracy, and 48 % takedown accuracy. Yan’s boxing prowess, counter-striking, and ability to mix in timely takedowns have earned him four UFC Fight Night bonuses and a former UFC title around his waist. However, overcoming Dvalishvili’s cardio and wrestling will be his greatest test.

Why You Should Care

• It’s a true rematch: both men know each other’s strengths and flaws, making the adjustments and game-plan battle as compelling as the action itself.
• Wrestling vs. striking: Dvalishvili’s relentless grappling assault against Yan’s technical boxing creates a classic style clash.
• Title implications: A win for Yan snaps Merab’s title reign and cements Petr’s place among bantamweight legends. A Dvalishvili victory further entrenches him as one of the toughest champions in UFC history.

This fight is more than a bout—it’s a tactical chess match at the highest level of mixed martial arts. Strap in for three to five rounds of elite bantamweight action on December 7.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Dvalishvili vs Yan 2 can be found on the Dvalishvili vs Yan 2 event page.

Matchup & Fighter Profiles

Merab Dvalishvili Profile

Age: 34
Country: Georgia
Fighting Style: Freestyle Wrestling

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights):

• Oct. 4, 2025: Win vs. Cory Sandhagen (Decision – Unanimous)
• June 7, 2025: Loss vs. Sean O’Malley (Decision – Unspecified)
• Jan. 18, 2025: Win vs. Umar Nurmagomedov (Decision – Unanimous)
• Sept. 14, 2024: Win vs. Sean O’Malley (Decision – Unanimous)
• Feb. 17, 2024: Win vs. Henry Cejudo (Decision – Unanimous)

Record: 21-4-0
Key Statistics:

• Average Fight Time: 17:08
• Significant Strike Accuracy: 42%
• Significant Strike Defense: 56%
• Takedown Accuracy: 38%
• Takedown Defense: 83%
• Wins by KO/Sub: 3 KOs, 2 Submissions

Strengths

• Relentless Pace & Cardio: Averages over 17 minutes per fight with zero first-round finishes against him—Merab suffocates opponents with nonstop wrestling.
• Elite Takedown Defense (83%): Rarely conceded ground; frustrates strikers by stuffing or neutralizing their attempts.
• Championship Experience: Has faced and defeated multiple top-five contenders in five-round wars, including Sandhagen and Nurmagomedov.

Weaknesses

• Below-Average Striking Accuracy (42%): Relies on takedowns to set offense; can be vulnerable if he fails to close distance.
• Limited Finishing Power Early: Only two submission victories and zero first-round stoppages suggest difficulty putting away elite opponents quickly.
• Takedown Offense (38%): Good but not elite—if Yan defends well, Merab may be forced into a striking battle.

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Petr Yan Profile

Age: 32
Country: Russia
Fighting Style: Boxing / Mixed

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights):

• July 26, 2025: Win vs. Marcus McGhee (Decision – Unanimous)
• Nov. 23, 2024: Win vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Decision – Unanimous)
• March 9, 2024: Win vs. Song Yadong (Decision – Unanimous)
• March 11, 2023: Loss vs. Merab Dvalishvili (Decision – Unanimous)
• Oct. 22, 2022: Loss vs. Sean O’Malley (Decision – Split)

Record: 19-5-0
Key Statistics:

• Average Fight Time: 17:08
• Significant Strike Accuracy: 54%
• Significant Strike Defense: 59%
• Takedown Accuracy: 48%
• Takedown Defense: 85%
• Wins by KO/Sub: 7 KOs, 1 Submission (3 First-Round Finishes)

Strengths

• Sharp, Technical Striking: 54% accuracy and 7 career KOs underline Yan’s power and precision. He controls distance and tempo with crisp combinations.
• Balanced Wrestler: Nearly 50% takedown success rate and 85% defense let him mix grappling to keep opponents guessing.
• Finishing Instinct: Three first-round stoppages show he can end fights early if he catches opponents cold.

Weaknesses

• Cardio Under Duress: Against relentless wrestlers like Dvalishvili, Yan has shown signs of fatigue late in championship rounds.
• Significant Strike Defense (59%): While respectable, he has absorbed heavy output in past wars (e.g., Sandhagen fight).
• Decision Losses: Four of his five defeats came by decision—he can be out-grinded or out-paced over five rounds.

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Head-to-Head Outlook:
This clash pits Merab’s wrestling-heavy grind against Yan’s boxing-first aggression. Dvalishvili must convert takedowns to control and avoid Yan’s counters; Yan needs to keep it standing, exploit openings, and finish early before Merab’s pace takes over. Both fighters’ recent form and statistical profiles set the stage for a classic style matchup at UFC 323.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Betting Lines

• Merab Dvalishvili (Favorite): –550 (Caesars), –500 (FanDuel, DraftKings, BetOnline)
• Petr Yan (Underdog): +400 (Caesars), +340 (FanDuel), +375 (BetRivers, Bovada)

Merab Dvalishvili opens as a heavy favorite across all major books, with the consensus line hovering around –525 to –550. Petr Yan checks in as a sizeable underdog, generally between +375 and +400 at the best shops. The largest gap—nearly 950 points—reflects Dvalishvili’s dominant wrestling pedigree versus Yan’s comeback narrative.

Best Sportsbooks for Value

• To back Petr Yan, Caesars Sportsbook currently offers the juiciest underdog payout at +400.
• To back Merab Dvalishvili, FanDuel and DraftKings both sit at –500, the softest favorite line, maximizing potential profit on a chalk bet.

Line Movement & Notable Swings

A review of the Caesars line history reveals significant movement as public money and sharp action poured in:

• Nov. 9: Petr opened at +275 / Merab at –400
• Nov. 19: Shifted to +330 / –430
• Nov. 22: Jumped to +375 / –500
• Nov. 24: Climbed again to +400 / –550

This shift shows the market growing more confident in Dvalishvili’s odds—his line moved nearly 150 points more negative in under three weeks. Petr Yan’s line, meanwhile, drifted over 125 points in the other direction. Similar swings appear across DraftKings and BetRivers, indicating strong consensus rather than isolated anomalies.

Potential Payouts & Implied Chances

If you had $1,000 to wager:

• Betting $1,000 on Petr Yan at +400 (Caesars) returns $5,000 in total ($4,000 profit + your $1,000 stake). His implied probability sits around 20%.
• Betting $1,000 on Merab Dvalishvili at –550 (Caesars) returns $1,182 in total (about $182 profit + your $1,000 stake). His implied probability sits near 85%.

Opting for FanDuel or DraftKings for Merab at –500 would yield $1,200 total on a $1,000 wager, slightly more profitable than the –550 line.

What It Means for Bettors

• Underdog value: Petr Yan at +400 is the biggest payout available—ideal for those banking on his boxing and power to upset.
• Chalk play: Merab at –500 on FanDuel/DraftKings offers the softest risk on the favorite, trimming vig and maximizing a return on a high-confidence pick.
• Line trend: Heavy late money on Dvalishvili suggests sharp bettors trust his wrestling-heavy game plan to stifle Yan’s offense. If you believe Yan can land early and finish, you’re better off playing his line sooner rather than later.

Keep an eye on further movement—any shift beyond +420 for Yan or –575 for Merab could signal new information or a sudden influx of sharp bets.