Pantoja vs Van: UFC 323 Fight Analysis & AI Pick

Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van Fight Analysis

Introduction

Mark your calendars for UFC 323 on December 7, 2025: the flyweight division’s brightest young talent, Joshua Van, takes on reigning champion Alexandre Pantoja in the main event of the evening at the world-famous T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The main card is slated to begin at 3:00 AM UTC (7:00 PM PST on December 6), with the flyweight title clash expected to hit the Octagon around 4:45 AM UTC (8:45 PM PST).

This championship showdown pits the veteran titleholder and betting favorite, Alexandre Pantoja (30-5-0), against the underdog contender, Joshua Van (15-2-0), in a battle that promises fireworks from start to finish. Pantoja, a 35-year-old Brazilian with a methodical MMA approach and a staggering 12 submissions in his UFC career, enters this rematch as the consensus pick across major sportsbooks. He carries odds around –235 on BetRivers and –245 on FanDuel, reflecting his proven pedigree and championship experience.

On the opposite side, 23-year-old Joshua Van has emerged as a dynamic, well-rounded powerhouse. The Hakha, Myanmar native has rattled off seven knockouts and defended takedowns at an 81% rate—tools that make him a legitimate threat to dethrone Pantoja. Despite being the underdog (+185 on BetRivers, +180 on DraftKings), Van’s blend of freestyle striking and 64% takedown accuracy suggests he has the firepower and wrestling acumen to spoil the party.

Why This Fight Matters

• Title Implications
  With the full arsenal of championship rounds ahead, both men must demonstrate not only skill but also championship endurance. Pantoja’s average fight time of 12:37 indicates a capacity to maintain a relentless pace, while Van’s 13:46 average suggests he can push deep into the championship frame.

• Stylistic Clash
  Pantoja brings a balanced MMA game—50% striking accuracy complemented by a high-level submission threat. Van counters with explosive freestyle stand-up (57% significant strike accuracy) and smothering grappling defense. This fight is a true test of Pantoja’s ability to adapt under pressure.

• Market Movement
  Oddsmakers opened Pantoja as a heavy favorite, but Van’s stock has risen steadily. Early props at +205 on BetOnline.ag have tightened to +170 in recent action, signaling growing confidence in the challenger’s upside.

Setting the Stage in Las Vegas

The fight card takes place at the iconic T-Mobile Arena, a venue that has hosted some of MMA’s most legendary matchups. As part of the “Dvalishvili vs Yan 2” event, Pantoja vs Van closes out a night stacked with title and contender bouts, ensuring a raucous atmosphere. Fans around the globe will tune in via streaming and pay-per-view, with betting windows open across all major U.S. and international sportsbooks.

In the following sections, we’ll break down each fighter’s strengths, recent form, and the key tactical battles that will determine who walks away with the flyweight crown. Strap in for a deep dive into what could be the most exciting 25 minutes in flyweight history!

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Dvalishvili vs Yan 2 can be found on the Dvalishvili vs Yan 2 event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Alexandre Pantoja – The Reigning Champion

Background

• Age: 35
• Country: Brazil
• Fighting Style: Well‐rounded MMA with a strong submission pedigree

Recent Form

1. Loss vs. Kai Kara-France (Jun. 28, 2025) – Decision
2. Win vs. Kai Asakura (Dec. 7, 2024) – Submission (Round 2, 2:05)
3. Win vs. Steve Erceg (May 4, 2024) – Unanimous Decision
4. Win vs. Brandon Royval (Dec. 16, 2023) – Unanimous Decision
5. Win vs. Brandon Moreno (Jul. 8, 2023) – Split Decision

Pantoja’s five-fight stretch showcases championship mettle: four victories—including three decisions and one slick submission—before a setback to Kara-France. His ability to grind through five rounds remains proven, and he bounced back from each challenge with adjustments in game plan.

Strengths & Weaknesses

Strengths

• Submission Expertise: 12 career finishes by tapout.
• First-Round Finishes: 10 highlight-reel stoppages showcase explosive starts.
• Cardio & Durability: Average fight time of 12:37 demonstrates willingness to engage deep into championship frame.
• Reach Advantage: 67” arm reach, ideal for securing grips and controlling distance.

Weaknesses

• Striking Defense: 50% significant strike defense—vulnerable to volume punching and counter-strikes.
• Takedown Defense: 69%—susceptible to high-level wrestlers who mix level changes.
• Slower Striking Output: 50% sig-strike accuracy lags behind Van’s 57%, indicating Pantoja may need to pick his spots and avoid high‐output exchanges.

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Joshua Van – The Young Challenger

Background

• Age: 23
• Country: Myanmar
• Fighting Style: Freestyle (dynamic striking and takedown mix)

Recent Form

1. Loss vs. Brandon Royval (Jun. 28, 2025) – Decision
2. Loss vs. Bruno Silva (Jun. 7, 2025) – Decision
3. Win vs. Rei Tsuruya (Mar. 8, 2025) – Unanimous Decision
4. Win vs. Cody Durden (Dec. 7, 2024) – Unanimous Decision
5. Loss vs. Edgar Chairez (Sep. 14, 2024) – Decision

Van’s record over his last five outings (2-3) belies flashes of elite talent: two dominant wins where he controlled pace and distance, contrasted by narrow losses to veteran grapplers. He’s still carving out consistency at the highest level.

Strengths & Weaknesses

Strengths

• Striking Efficiency: 57% significant strike accuracy—high conversion on combinations.
• Grappling Defense: 81% takedown defense frustrates wrestling-first opponents.
• Takedown Offense: 64% accuracy ensures he can dictate clinches.
• Power & Pace: Seven KOs and an average fight time of 13:46 speaks to both power and gas tank.

Weaknesses

• Submission Threat: Only two submission wins—his ground offense is limited against BJJ-savvy foes.
• Experience Gap: 17-fight professional résumé vs. Pantoja’s 35–fight résumé; may feel pressure in championship rounds.
• Championship Rounds: Van has yet to fight five full rounds; potential concern if the bout enters deep water.

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Head-to-Head Edge

• Experience & Championship Savvy: Pantoja holds the advantage in five-round and title-fight situations.
• Youth & Unpredictability: Van’s athletic upside and striking volume could overwhelm early.
• Grappling Exchange: Pantoja’s submission résumé vs. Van’s takedown defense sets a key chess match on the mat.

As the flyweight crown hangs in the balance, Pantoja’s veteran toolkit clashes with Van’s youthful explosiveness. The victor will be the fighter who imposes their strength—whether it’s Pantoja’s relentless pressure and submission hunting, or Van’s pinpoint striking and defensive wrestling.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

As of the latest update on November 24, 2025, here are the current moneyline odds for the flyweight title fight:

• Alexandre Pantoja (Favorite):

  • BetRivers: –235
  • FanDuel: –245 (best favorite line)
  • DraftKings: –218

• Joshua Van (Underdog):

  • BetRivers: +185
  • FanDuel: +186 (best underdog line)
  • DraftKings: +180

The spread between the favorite and underdog sits around 420 cents (–235 vs. +185), reflecting bookmakers’ confidence in Pantoja’s championship experience and Van’s status as a rising contender. Van’s most attractive underdog payout (+186 at FanDuel) makes FanDuel the top choice for bettors backing the challenger, while those leaning toward Pantoja will find slightly longer juice at DraftKings (–218).

Historical Line Movement

Tracking line movement over the past week reveals notable momentum shifts:

• Pantoja opened around –265 on BetRivers (Nov. 16) before drifting in to –235. Early heavy action on the champion caused bookmakers to lengthen his line, suggesting bettors may be shopping around or taking advantage of mid-week adjustments.
• Van debuted at +205 on BetOnline.ag (Nov. 17) and has since tightened to +170 at multiple books (BetOnline.ag, Bovada) before settling around +185–+180 across major U.S. sportsbooks. The swing from +205 to +170 indicates sharp money on the underdog, followed by slight bookmaker correction back to the current range.

Overall, both fighters saw 10–15 cent shifts in their odds within 48 hours of opening—an early sign of market fluidity as bettors gauge Pantoja’s durability vs. Van’s explosiveness.

$1,000 Bet Payout & Implied Probabilities

If you were to wager $1,000 on either fighter at the current lines, here’s what your results would look like:

• Betting $1,000 on Pantoja at –235
  – Profit: $425.53
  – Total Return: $1,425.53

• Betting $1,000 on Van at +185
  – Profit: $1,850
  – Total Return: $2,850

Beyond raw payouts, these lines imply a win probability of roughly:

• Pantoja: ~70% chance to retain his belt
• Van: ~35% chance to upset the champion

(No deep math explanation—just know Pantoja is the heavy favorite, Van the live underdog.)

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

• For Underdog Value: FanDuel’s +186 on Joshua Van offers the highest payout and is the top pick for those backing the challenger.
• For Champion Supporters: DraftKings at –218 gives slightly better juice than FanDuel or BetRivers if you’re leaning towards Pantoja.

As always, line shopping across multiple sportsbooks can yield better value and ensure you lock in the most favorable terms for your wager. Good luck, and may your pick make you money!