Winner: Jan Blachowicz
Confidence Score: 67Jan Blachowicz holds significant advantages in experience, grappling, and defensive metrics. He has a much longer UFC tenure, having fought and beaten elite competition, including former and current champions. Blachowicz's takedown accuracy (49%) and defense (69%) are superior to Guskov's, who has not landed a UFC takedown. Jan's submission threat is real (9 wins by sub), and his striking defense (53%) is slightly better than Guskov's (50%). While Guskov is dangerous early and has big knockout power (15 KOs, 13 first-round finishes), his lack of ground game (0% takedown accuracy, 50% defense) and submission losses (as seen vs Oezdemir) are big red flags against a well-rounded veteran like Jan. Historically, fighters aged 42 are underdogs, but Jan's proven five-round durability and size (longer reach and legs) offset the age gap. Recent form for both is mixed, but Jan's style and well-roundedness make him a favorite in this matchup.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Jan Blachowicz vs Bogdan Guskov can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Dvalishvili vs Yan 2 can be found on the Dvalishvili vs Yan 2 event page.
