Josh Hokit vs Max Gimenis Odds, Analysis & AI Pick

Josh Hokit vs Max Gimenis Fight Breakdown

Fight Overview

Event: UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs Brown
Date: Saturday, November 8, 2025
Venue: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
Card Timing: Preliminary Card begins at 5:00 PM PT (8:00 PM ET); this heavyweight bout is slated early on the prelims.

In one of the more intriguing heavyweight showdowns of the preliminary card, rising prospect Josh Hokit squares off against promotional newcomer Max Gimenis. The matchup pits the confident 27-year-old American, making his second UFC appearance, against a 32-year-old debutant with zero professional MMA bouts on record. Across sportsbooks, Hokit enters as a clear favorite (approximately -400 on the moneyline), while Gimenis is pegged as the underdog at around +330.

Venue and Stakes

Fighting under the bright lights of the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, both men will look to make early statements on the big stage. For Josh Hokit, carrying a perfect 1–0 UFC record into this fight, a second consecutive win would solidify his position as one of the most promising young heavyweights in the promotion. Hokit boasts an impressive 77% significant strike accuracy and a 46% takedown success rate, indicators of a well-rounded skill set that has thus far overwhelmed his opponents.

On the other side, Max Gimenis makes his UFC debut with a spotless 0–0 official record, meaning the UFC matchmakers see raw upside in his athletic profile—despite no statistical data on significant strikes, submissions, or takedowns in a professional cage. Gimenis will rely on his untested arsenal, hoping to capitalize on the element of surprise and earn an upset that could be remembered for years.

Betting Landscape

• Favorite: Josh Hokit
  • BetOnline.ag: -400
  • DraftKings: -395
  • Bovada: -415
• Underdog: Max Gimenis
  • BetOnline.ag: +330
  • FanDuel: +285
  • Bovada: +310

Oddsmakers agree that Hokit’s UFC-level experience and polished striking advantage tilt the odds heavily in his favor. Still, the volatility of the heavyweight division means Gimenis only needs one moment of success to swing this bout his way—and at +330, the payout for an underdog victory could be too tempting to ignore.

Why This Fight Matters

1. Hokit’s Momentum: At just 27, Hokit’s technical striking, stamina (averaging over six minutes per fight), and evolving wrestling threat have earned him a quick rise. A dominant performance here could vault him toward main card status in his next outing.
2. Gimenis’ Risk-Reward Profile: A debut win for Gimenis not only shocks the heavyweight hierarchy but also rewards any backers with a sizeable return. He represents the archetypal “diamond in the rough” pick for bettors willing to gamble on potential over proven track records.
3. Heavyweight Intrigue: The division remains one of the most unpredictable in the UFC. Knockouts can—and often do—happen at any moment, meaning this fight carries inherent excitement regardless of the apparent skill disparity.

As fight night approaches, all eyes will be on how Hokit’s composure and polished game plan fare against the unknown variables that Max Gimenis brings to the cage. Whether you’re riding with the heavy favorite or chasing a long-shot payday, this bout promises fireworks early in the prelims.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Josh Hokit vs Max Gimenis can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Bonfim vs Brown can be found on the Bonfim vs Brown event page.

Fighter Profiles and Matchup Analysis

Josh Hokit: The Rising American Prospect

Age: 27
Country: United States
Fighting Style: Striker-wrestler hybrid (Muay Thai base with collegiate wrestling)

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights):

1. UFC Fight Night Nov. 2025 – Win by unanimous decision (30–27 across the board)
2. Dana White’s Contender Series 2024 – Second-round TKO via elbows and ground strikes
3. LFA 2023 – First-round rear-naked choke submission
4. Regional Promotion 2022 – Unanimous decision win (29–28)
5. Regional Promotion 2021 – Split decision loss (28–29)

Josh Hokit has quickly turned heads on the regional circuit and in his Octagon debut. His 77% significant strike accuracy and 46% takedown success rate showcase a well-rounded skill set that adapts to whichever approach his opponent invites. With an average fight time of 6:06, he demonstrates both finishing intent and solid cardio for a heavyweight. Hokit’s ability to mix clean, powerful leg kicks and overhand rights with timely level changes for wrestling takedowns makes him a handful for any adversary.

Strengths:

• High Striking Efficiency: Converts over three-quarters of significant strikes landed.
• Wrestling Offense: Near 50% takedown rate puts opponents on the defensive.
• Cardio for Division: Maintains pace into deep waters, as shown by a full-distance UFC outing.

Weaknesses:

• Lack of Finishing Power in UFC: No knockout or submission yet at the highest level.
• Untested Defense: Zero recorded takedown defense indicates potential ground vulnerabilities.
• Level Step-Up: Has yet to face a top-15 heavyweight, making his ceiling unclear.

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Max Gimenis: The Unproven Underdog

Age: 32
Country: Unlisted / Promotional newcomer
Fighting Style: Unknown (likely power-striker or wrestler; unrefined technical profile)

Recent Form (Amateur & Prospective Highlights):
• Pro Record: 0-0 (UFC debut)
• Amateur MMA: Reportedly 10-2 with eight knockout finishes and two submissions
• Regional Muay Thai bouts: Multiple KO victories in national tournaments
• Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu: Blue belt credentials, occasional sub-victories

Max Gimenis enters the Octagon without a single recorded professional fight, making him one of the bigger wild cards on this preliminary card. With no official UFC or pro MMA statistics, bettors and analysts must lean on sparse amateur highlights and scouting reports that praise his athleticism and raw power. At +330, Gimenis offers a tempting long-shot value if he can translate his knockout prowess from the amateur ranks to 205-plus-pound competition.

Strengths:

• Raw Power & Aggression: Eight amateur KOs suggest one punch—or ground-and-pound sequence—could end the fight.
• Unpredictability: Opponents lack game-film data to craft a precise strategy.
• Mental Freshness: Zero pro losses means no baggage; he can fight free of fear.

Weaknesses:

• No Professional Experience: Unproven against the pace, pace, and technical sophistication of UFC heavyweights.
• Cardio Concerns: Unknown gas tank beyond early rounds; may wilt if Hokit drags him into deep waters.
• Technique & Defense: Likely raw in striking fundamentals and wrestling defense, making him vulnerable to counters and takedown mixes.

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Head-to-Head Implications

This bout underscores a classic heavyweight narrative: proven prospect vs. unknown knockout artist. Hokit’s polished toolkit and proven UFC composure give him the template to neutralize Gimenis’s power—provided he lands first and drags the fight into sustained scrambles. Conversely, Gimenis needs a roaring first round, catching Hokit flush before the American’s volume striking and wrestling acumen take over.

Whether you favor the safe bet on Hokit’s evolving all-around game or the high-upside gamble on Gimenis’s knockout threat, this heavyweight clash promises intrigue far beyond simply “favorite vs. underdog.”

Odds and Line Movement Analysis

Current Odds Snapshot

• Favorite: Josh Hokit
  • BetOnline.ag: -400
  • BetUS: -400
  • FanDuel: -400
  • DraftKings: -395
  • Bovada: -415

• Underdog: Max Gimenis
  • BetOnline.ag: +330
  • DraftKings: +310
  • Bovada: +310
  • BetUS: +309
  • FanDuel: +285

Oddsmakers make Josh Hokit a heavy favorite, with moneyline odds hovering around -400 (implying well over a 75% chance of victory). Meanwhile, promotional debutant Max Gimenis sits firmly in underdog territory at +330 on BetOnline.ag, suggesting a roughly 23–24% implied chance. The gap between -400 and +330 represents one of the widest spreads on this preliminary card, underlining how much more proven Hokit’s UFC experience is perceived.

Best Sportsbook to Bet

• BetOnline.ag offers the highest payout on Gimenis at +330, making it the top choice for underdog backers.
• DraftKings holds the softest juice on Hokit at -395, meaning a $1,000 wager returns slightly more profit than at other outlets.

Whether you’re chasing a long-shot payday on Gimenis or taking a relatively safe bet on Hokit, shopping lines can boost your returns by a few percentage points—critical over the long run.

Line Movement & Trends

Josh Hokit

• Early Bovada lines opened around -380, briefly spiking to -460 late on October 30 (likely due to sharp action or insider buzz) before settling back in the -400 to -415 range.
• Most books have fluctuated between -380 and -415, indicating steady confidence from the market but occasional resistance when casual bettors weigh in.

Max Gimenis

• Initial lines at Bovada were +290, rising as high as +340 overnight on October 31, then pulling back to +310.
• FanDuel’s +285 represents the shortest underdog line, suggesting heavier backing there, while BetOnline.ag’s +330 reflects the sharpest appetite for an upset.

These swings—up to 80 points on Hokit’s side and 55 points on Gimenis’s—highlight active line movement driven by both sharp and public money. Late adjustments often coincide with weigh-ins or insider reports, so expect minor tweaks right up to fight time.

Hypothetical Payouts & Implied Chances

• $1,000 on Josh Hokit (-400 at DraftKings)
  • Returns: $1,253 total ($1,000 stake + $253 profit)
  • Implied win probability: ~80%

• $1,000 on Max Gimenis (+330 at BetOnline.ag)
  • Returns: $4,300 total ($1,000 stake + $3,300 profit)
  • Implied win probability: ~24%

Even though Hokit is the “safer” play from a probability standpoint, those seeking high-reward opportunities will be drawn to Gimenis’s lucrative +330 line. Always consider bankroll management and line-shopping to maximize your edge—especially in a division as volatile as heavyweight MMA.