Winner: Nasrat Haqparast
Confidence Score: 75Nasrat Haqparast has a significant edge in UFC experience, having fought high-level competition since 2017. His striking defense (63%) and proven durability against top lightweights are notable advantages over the less-tested Quillan Salkilld. While Salkilld is a promising prospect with a reach advantage (75" vs. 72") and high striking accuracy (60%), his defensive numbers (45% sig strike defense) are concerning against an accurate, high-paced striker like Haqparast. Haqparast has also demonstrated excellent takedown defense (85%), which should nullify Salkilld's 38% takedown accuracy and prevent the Australian from dictating the fight on the ground. Historically, fighters with Haqparast's UFC tenure, defensive metrics, and knockout power have a high win rate over newcomers with similar profiles to Salkilld, especially when the latter's defense is suspect. Given Haqparast's experience, defensive edge, and ability to handle pressure, he is the most likely winner, though Salkilld's size and finishing ability keep the confidence short of 'very high.'
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Nasrat Haqparast vs Quillan Salkilld can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Aspinall vs Gane can be found on the Aspinall vs Gane event page.