Vettori vs Ferreira Odds, Fight Analysis & AI Pick

Marvin Vettori vs Brunno Ferreira Fight Analysis

Event Details

The Marvin Vettori vs Brunno Ferreira middleweight showdown kicks off the Early Preliminary Card of UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs Yan 2, live from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The action begins on Saturday, December 6, 2025; the early prelims are slated to start at 23:00 UTC (3:00 PM PT / 6:00 PM ET), with Vettori and Ferreira expected to break the ice sometime in the first hour of the televised card. As UFC fans flock to Sin City and tune in across North America, this could be one of the most intriguing matchups on the undercard—pitting a seasoned contender against a fast-rising Brazilian grappling specialist.

The Favorite vs. The Underdog

Oddsmakers across major sportsbooks have made Marvin Vettori the favorite in this clash. On FanDuel, Vettori checks in at -122, while Caesars lists him at -120, BetMGM at -115, and Bovada at -112. Across the board, the Italian veteran is seen as a slight edge for bettors looking to back an All-Around Mixed Martial Arts (MMA) stylist who blends wrestling, submissions, and improving striking.

Meanwhile, Brunno Ferreira enters as the underdog. He’s priced anywhere from -110 (DraftKings, BetOnline) down to +100 at Caesars, capitalizing on his disruptive grappling pedigree but still facing questions about his experience at this level. Ferreira’s UFC résumé reads 14–2, with nine stoppages—an impressive ledger that includes five submissions and four knockouts—but he’s yet to prove himself against a top-15 opponent.

Why This Matchup Matters

• Marvin Vettori (#14 Middleweight): A decade-long UFC vet with a record of 19–9–1. Known for his cardio, top control, and relentless pace, Vettori has dropped decisions to elite names like Robert Whittaker and Jared Cannonier but has rebounded with key submission wins. He averages a lengthy 17:17 fight time—indicative of his durability—and shows solid takedown offense (45%) and defense (66%). His reach (74″ arms, 41″ legs) and 56% significant strike defense give him a technical edge standing up.
• Brunno Ferreira (Unranked): A 32-year-old grappler from Curitiba, Brazil, with a perfect 5–0 UFC mark before tasting defeat in October. Ferreira averages an action-packed 5:23 per fight and boasts 51% accuracy on significant strikes. His submission prowess shines (5 submissions), and he’s secured 11 first-round finishes across 14 wins. Yet his takedown accuracy (29%) and defense (57%) may be tested by a high-level wrestler like Vettori.

What to Expect

This clash will likely revolve around whether Vettori can impose his wrestling/grappling early and neutralize Ferreira’s submission threats, or if Ferreira can capitalize on scrambles and catch Vettori off guard with his explosive jiu-jitsu. On the feet, expect Vettori’s precise jab and counter-striking to contrast with Ferreira’s power shots and aggressive forward pressure. Cardio shouldn’t be a deciding factor, as both fighters have proven gas tanks—though each has faced adversity in deep waters.

As bettors weigh Vettori’s consistency and experience against Ferreira’s finishing instincts and momentum, this middleweight tilt promises fireworks. Stay tuned: the early prelims at T-Mobile Arena might steal the show before the heavyweight title rematch headlines the night.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Marvin Vettori vs Brunno Ferreira can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Dvalishvili vs Yan 2 can be found on the Dvalishvili vs Yan 2 event page.

Matchup & Fighter Profiles

Marvin Vettori Profile

Age: 32 | Country: Italy | Fighting Style: MMA all-rounder
Record: 19–9–1

Recent Form (Last 5 fights):

• Loss vs. Brendan Allen (July 19, 2025) – Decision (Unanimous)
• Loss vs. Roman Dolidze (March 15, 2025) – Decision (Unanimous)
• Loss vs. Jared Cannonier (June 17, 2023) – Decision (Unanimous)
• Win vs. Roman Dolidze (March 18, 2023) – Decision (Unanimous)
• Loss vs. Robert Whittaker (September 3, 2022) – Decision (Unanimous)

Strengths

• Wrestling & Takedown Defence: At 45% takedown accuracy and 66% takedown defence, Vettori regularly dictates where the fight takes place and frustrates opponents’ ground games.
• Cardio & Durability: Averaging 17:17 per fight, he rarely gasps for air—if a match goes deep, Vettori often outworks foes.
• Significant Strike Defence: At 56%, he negates over half incoming significant strikes, using head movement and distance management to blunt aggressive strikers.

Weaknesses

• Finishing Power: Only 2 KO wins in 19 victories (compared to 9 submissions) highlight a lack of one-punch knockout threat.
• Losing Skid vs. High-Level Opposition: Four straight losses to top-10 opponents raise questions about his ability to rebound against surging talents.
• Significant Strike Accuracy: At 46%, Vettori lands fewer than half of his significant strike attempts, suggesting potential vulnerability if pressured by high-output strikers.

---

Brunno Ferreira Profile

Age: 32 | Country: Brazil | Fighting Style: Grappler
Record: 14–2–0

Recent Form (Last 5 fights):

• Win vs. Jackson McVey (July 19, 2025) – Submission (Round 1, 3:35)
• Win vs. Armen Petrosyan (March 8, 2025) – Submission (Round 2, 4:27)
• Loss vs. Abus Magomedov (October 26, 2024) – Submission (Round 3, 3:14)
• Win vs. Dustin Stoltzfus (June 8, 2024) – KO/TKO (Round 1, 4:51)
• Win vs. Phillip Hawes (January 13, 2024) – KO/TKO (Round 1, 4:55)

Strengths

• Explosive Finishing: With 9 KO/TKO wins, 5 submissions, and 11 first-round finishes, Ferreira ends fights quickly and decisively.
• Significant Strike Accuracy: Landing 51% of his significant strikes, he picks his moments efficiently, especially in entry to takedown setups.
• Submission Prowess: His Brazilian jiu-jitsu shines in scrambles, with a 57% takedown defence that helps him survive early wrestling and threaten on the mat.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Offense: At only 29% accuracy, Ferreira can struggle to secure dominant positions against elite wrestlers.
• Compact Gas Tank: Averaging 5:23 per fight—driven by early finishes—raises concerns about his endurance if the bout goes past the second round.
• Defensive Striking: Also at 51% significant strike defence, he absorbs nearly half of incoming blows, which could be costly under sustained pressure from a volume striker like Vettori.

---

Comparative Breakdown

• Wrestling & Ground Control: Vettori holds a clear edge in takedown success and defence, while Ferreira’s game centers on finishing immediately once he gets top position or sets up scrambles.
• Striking Exchange: Ferreira’s higher accuracy and knockout power give him pop in early exchanges, but Vettori’s superior strike defence and reach (+2″ arm reach) allow him to counter and bleed Ferreira’s output.
• Cardio & Fight Duration: If Ferreira cannot score an early finish, Vettori’s proven stamina and longer average fight time likely tilt the fight to the later rounds, where Vettori can systematically break down his opponent.

This middleweight clash will test whether Ferreira’s finishing instincts can overcome Vettori’s wrestling pedigree and durability—or if Vettori’s experience and gas tank grind down the Brazilian’s explosiveness.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

As of the latest update, Marvin Vettori is installed as the favorite across major sportsbooks, while Brunno Ferreira sits just on the other side of the line as the underdog. Here’s a snapshot of the best available prices:

• Marvin Vettori

  • BetOnline.ag / DraftKings: -110
  • Bovada: -112
  • Caesars: -120
  • FanDuel: -122
  • BetMGM: -115

• Brunno Ferreira

  • Caesars: +100 (top underdog price)
  • FanDuel: -104
  • BetMGM: -105
  • Bovada: -108
  • BetOnline.ag / DraftKings: -110

Key Takeaways:

• Favorite: Marvin Vettori (prices clustering around -110 to -122)
• Underdog: Brunno Ferreira (best juice is +100 at Caesars)
• Best Value Books:
  • Back Vettori at BetOnline.ag or DraftKings (-110) for maximum return.
  • Back Ferreira at Caesars (+100) to double your money on a winning ticket.

Line Movement & Historical Swings

Both fighters’ lines opened in similar territory but have experienced modest oscillations driven by public action and insider money.

• Vettori’s Path:

  • Opened near -115 on Nov. 20.
  • Ticked up to -120 and even -125 as bettors flooded in, then eased back to -110 by Nov. 24.
  • This volatility suggests a mix of sharp play on Vettori and some contrarian money fading him as a chalk pick.

• Ferreira’s Trajectory:

  • Began around -105, briefly flipped to +100 when early money hit him, then dipped to -110 before settling near -108 / -104.
  • Ferreira even reached +105 for a short burst, indicating sharp underdog backing and a few late-money surges.

Largest Swings:

• Vettori: from -125 down to -110 (15¢ swing).
• Ferreira: from +105 down to -110 (215¢ swing!).

The back-and-forth shows a competitive market: sharp bettors saw value on Ferreira early, while the public gravitated back to Vettori as fight week progressed.

$1,000 Bet Payout & Implied Chances

If you’re pulling the trigger with a $1,000 wager:

• On Marvin Vettori at -110:

  • Profit ≈ $909
  • Total Return ≈ $1,909

• On Brunno Ferreira at +100:

  • Profit = $1,000
  • Total Return = $2,000

Implied Win Probabilities:

• Vettori’s price range of -110 to -122 suggests he carries roughly a 52–55% chance to win.
• Ferreira’s -104 to +100 range implies nearly a 50% win probability—right on the knife edge for an underdog.

Verdict

• Sharp Money & Chalk Balance: Vettori remains the safer play for bettors seeking a reliable favorite, especially at -110 on BetOnline or DraftKings.
• Value Underdog: Ferreira at +100 on Caesars offers the juiciest potential upside—if you believe his finishing power can catch Vettori early.

Whether you back the seasoned veteran or the gritty Brazilian grappler, the minor line swings hint at a genuinely competitive clash. Be sure to shop around: a few cents difference in American odds can mean hundreds of extra dollars on a four-digit wager. Good luck!