Barber vs Silva UFC 323: Fight Odds & Analysis

Maycee Barber vs Karine Silva fight analysis

Event Information

The highly anticipated Women’s Flyweight clash between Maycee Barber and Karine Silva takes center stage on Saturday, December 6, 2025 (early morning December 7 UTC) at the world-famous T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. This bout is featured on the Preliminary Card of UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs Yan 2, with the first fight bell scheduled for 8:00 PM PT and Barber vs Silva projected around 9:45 PM PT (1:45 AM UTC). The T-Mobile Arena, renowned for hosting legendary UFC title wars and contender showdowns, provides the perfect backdrop for these two flyweights to make a statement.

Fans in the United States can catch the Preliminary Card live on ESPN+, while international audiences can tune in via UFC Fight Pass. Whether you’re placing your bets at one of the top sportsbooks or settling in at home, this Las Vegas evening promises high-octane action from top to bottom.

Introduction

Friday night’s headliner pits two of the division’s most dynamic female athletes against each other in a fight that carries significant implications for the 125-pound rankings. Rising star and No. 5 contender Maycee Barber (14-2-0) looks to maintain her ascent toward title contention, leveraging her crisp punching combinations, 53% significant-strike accuracy, and stout 54% takedown defense. Across the Octagon, Brazilian submission specialist Karine Silva (19-5-0), ranked No. 9, aims to derail Barber’s momentum with her world-class Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, having secured 8 submission wins and an astonishing 13 first-round finishes in her professional career.

Although this is not a championship bout, the winner will emerge as one of the most compelling challengers in a division that already boasts formidable talents like Valentina Shevchenko and Alexa Grasso. For Barber, a strong performance further cements her #5 ranking and paves the way toward a future title shot. For Silva, an upset would vault her into the flyweight elite, proving that her grappling acumen and diverse finishing ability translate seamlessly onto the biggest UFC stages.

Odds Snapshot: Favorite vs Underdog

Betting markets have made Maycee Barber the clear favorite, with odds ranging from -160 to -172 on major sportsbooks (Caesars, Bovada, FanDuel). Barber’s edge in striking volume and defensive wrestling underpins these lines. Conversely, Karine Silva enters as the +130 to +136 underdog, despite her 48% takedown accuracy and willingness to engage in grappling exchanges. Silva’s path to victory hinges on closing distance, securing clinches, and hunting for submissions before Barber can assert her striking rhythm.

As fight night approaches, bettors should monitor any line shifts—early action has already seen Barber’s odds tighten from -170 to -160 at Caesars and Silva’s price dip from +143 to +135. These movements suggest sharp confidence on both sides, underlining the fight’s competitive intrigue.

With December 6th fast approaching, all eyes will be on Las Vegas. Will Barber’s striking prowess and cardio prevail, or will Silva’s submission threat upset the odds? The answer comes when the lights go down at the T-Mobile Arena and the fighters touch gloves in what promises to be an electric preliminary showdown.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Maycee Barber vs Karine Silva can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Dvalishvili vs Yan 2 can be found on the Dvalishvili vs Yan 2 event page.

Matchup & Individual Fighter Profiles

Maycee Barber

Background & Fighting Style

• Age: 27
• Country: United States (Greeley, Colorado)
• Fighting Style: Freestyle Wrestling & Striking
• UFC Debut: November 10, 2018

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

1. Win vs. Katlyn Cerminara – Decision (Unanimous), Mar. 9, 2024
2. Win vs. Amanda Ribas – KO/TKO (Round 2, 3:42), Jun. 24, 2023
3. Win vs. Andrea Lee – Decision (Split), Mar. 25, 2023
4. Win vs. Jessica Eye – Decision (Unanimous), Jul. 2, 2022
5. Win vs. Montana De La Rosa – Decision (Unanimous), Apr. 23, 2022

Barber enters this bout riding a five-fight winning streak, showcasing consistent improvement in her takedown setups and striking output. Her victories over top contenders like Ribas and Eye cemented her position inside the Women’s Flyweight Top 5.

Strengths

• Significant Strike Accuracy (53%): Consistently lands over half of her attempted power shots and combinations.
• Strike Defense (55%): Neutralizes over half of incoming significant strikes, keeping her upright and offensive.
• Takedown Defense (54%): Overmatches most opponents in defending grappling entries, forcing fights to remain standing where she holds the edge.
• Cardio & Fight IQ: Average fight time of 12:10 indicates sustained pace and strategic adjustments deep into rounds.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Offense (44%): Below-elite rate of successful takedowns may limit her ability to mix levels and slow down a relentless grappler.
• Lack of Early Finishes: Zero first-round stoppages in her UFC tenure suggest lower finishing power until opponents accumulate damage.
• Predictability in Striking: As her wrestling underpins her game, her opponents can anticipate level changes once they identify her setup patterns.

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Karine Silva

Background & Fighting Style

• Age: 31
• Country: Brazil (Dourados)
• Fighting Style: Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Specialist
• UFC Debut: June 4, 2022

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

1. Loss vs. Dione Barbosa – Decision (Aug. 16, 2025)
2. Loss vs. Viviane Araujo – Decision (Unanimous), Nov. 16, 2024
3. Win vs. Ariane Da Silva – Decision (Unanimous), Apr. 27, 2024
4. Win vs. Maryna Moroz – Submission (Round 1, 4:59), Aug. 19, 2023
5. Win vs. Ketlen Souza – Submission (Round 1, 1:45), Jun. 3, 2023

Silva is coming off back-to-back decision losses but remains a dangerous threat thanks to her 8 submission victories and 13 first-round finishes across her 19-win career. Her aggressive grappling has powered her rise to a #9 ranking.

Strengths

• Takedown Accuracy (48%): Converts nearly half of her takedown attempts, applying constant pressure and testing opponent’s defense.
• Submission Prowess: Eight career taps, including two in her last UFC outings, highlight her ability to capitalize on scrambles.
• Fast Starts: Average fight time of 9:03 and 13 first-round finishes indicate she excels when she imposes her grappling early.
• Significant Strike Defense (52%): Deflects over half of incoming strikes, setting up level changes and clinch entries.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Defense (11%): One of the poorest marks in the division; vulnerable to elite wrestlers looking to dictate range and tempo.
• Strike Accuracy (38%): Below-average stand-up numbers; can struggle to hurt opponents on the feet.
• Durability in Deep Rounds: Two recent decision losses show potential cardio fade and difficulty overcoming deficit once opponents survive early onslaught.

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Matchup Outlook
This bout is a classic clash of styles: Barber’s versatile wrestling and striking versus Silva’s elite Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Barber’s ability to thwart takedown attempts and control range should neutralize Silva’s submission chains, while Silva must explode early, secure clinches, and hunt for neck ties before Barber finds her striking rhythm. The winner will exploit the other’s primary weakness—Barber’s moderate takedown offense or Silva’s leaky takedown defense—to dictate where the fight goes and tilt the octagon in their favor.

Odds & Odds History

Current Betting Odds

As of November 24, 2025, the market has Maycee Barber installed as the clear favorite across major sportsbooks, while Karine Silva carries the underdog tag. Below is a snapshot of each fighter’s best available odds:

• Maycee Barber: –160 (Caesars, Bovada, BetMGM) | –162 (DraftKings) | –172 (FanDuel)
• Karine Silva: +135 (Caesars, BetOnline, Bovada) | +136 (DraftKings) | +130 (BetMGM) | +134 (FanDuel)

Favorite vs. Underdog

• Barber’s consensus line sits around –160, implying she’s the one bettors expect to win.
• Silva, at roughly +135, is the underdog but offers more than double your money on a winning ticket.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

• Back Barber at BetOnline.ag where she’s priced at –155, the juiciest favorite line available.
• Back Silva at DraftKings with her best underdog price of +136, giving you the highest potential profit.

Line Movement & Historical Swings

Tracking these odds over the past week shows notable shifts driven by sharp money and public action:

• Caesars (Barber): Opened at –170 on Nov. 23 → Tweaked to –160 on Nov. 24
• Caesars (Silva): Opened at +143 → Dropped to +135
• BetOnline.ag (Barber): –155 steady since Nov. 18
• BetOnline.ag (Silva): Varied from +145 down to +135
• DraftKings (Barber): –170 → –162; (Silva): +142 → +136
• Bovada (Silva): Oscillated between +133 and +135 throughout Nov. 23–24

Key Swing: Silva’s line at BetOnline shifted a full 10 points (from +145 to +135) as bettors reacted to Silva’s improved recent form and rumors of an underappreciated grappling edge. On the flip side, Barber moved from –170 to –160 at Caesars, indicating steady confidence but a slight increase in action on Silva.

Payouts & Implied Probabilities

If you wager $1,000 on each fighter at their current best odds, here’s what you’d cash out:

• Maycee Barber at –155 (BetOnline)
– Potential profit: $1,000 × (100/155) ≈ $645
– Total return (wager + profit): $1,645

• Karine Silva at +136 (DraftKings)
– Potential profit: $1,000 × (136/100) = $1,360
– Total return (wager + profit): $2,360

Implied Win Chances

• Barber at –160 implies roughly a 61–63% chance to win.
• Silva at +135 implies roughly a 42–43% shot at the upset.

Whether you believe Barber’s striking and defense will carry her through or you’re buying the dip on Silva’s submission prowess, understanding these line movements and payout structures is key to making an informed wager.