UFC 323 Baraniewski vs Aslan Odds & AI Prediction

Iwo Baraniewski vs Ibo Aslan fight breakdown

Event Details

The highly anticipated light heavyweight clash between Iwo Baraniewski and Ibo Aslan is set for early preliminary action on Saturday, December 6, 2025, at the iconic T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. This bout marks part of the Early Preliminary Card for UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 and is scheduled to kick off shortly after the 7:00 PM ET (4:00 PM PT) start of the prelims. Fans tuning in from around the world can catch the opening bell at approximately 7:15 PM ET live on UFC Fight Pass and ESPN+.

Meet the Fighters

– Iwo Baraniewski (Red Corner)
• Country: Poland
• Age: 26
• Weight Class: Light Heavyweight (205 lb)
• UFC Record: 0–0–0 (making his promotional debut)
• Fighting Style: Undisclosed prospect with a reputation for crisp striking and explosive power

– Ibo Aslan (Blue Corner)
• Country: Türkiye
• Age: 29
• Weight Class: Light Heavyweight (204 lb)
• UFC Record: 2–2–0
• Overall MMA Record: 14–3–0 with 14 wins by knockout and 12 first-round finishes
• Fighting Style: Pure striker with heavy hands and a 47% significant strike accuracy

Betting Odds & Key Matchup Narrative

As of the latest odds (Nov. 24, 2025), Iwo Baraniewski is installed as the favorite, trading around –170 to –178 across major books like DraftKings, FanDuel, and Caesars. The Polish prospect’s explosive junior-level stoppages and undefeated amateur pedigree have bettors backing him heavily, despite his lack of UFC experience. Meanwhile, Ibo Aslan enters as the underdog at roughly +137 to +145, per Bovada and BetOnline.ag. Although Aslan boasts a 90% stoppage rate and veteran savvy from four UFC contests, his recent setbacks—a unanimous decision loss to Billy Elekana and a first-round submission defeat against Ion Cutelaba—have tempered confidence.

Key dynamics to watch:

• Baraniewski’s debut momentum and unknown ceiling vs. Aslan’s proven finishing ability.
• Reach & striking exchanges: Baraniewski’s crisp, high-volume attack vs. Aslan’s power punches and countering angles.
• Cardio & pacing: Will Baraniewski maintain pressure for three rounds, or can Aslan weather early storms and turn the tables in later frames?

Why This Fight Matters

1. Debut Spotlight: Baraniewski’s first outing under the UFC banner carries huge upside. A highlight-reel finish here could rocket him into the divisional conversation.
2. Redemption Arc: Aslan needs a statement win to rebound from back-to-back defeats and reclaim his momentum in the 205-pound ranks.
3. Light Heavyweight Implications: The winner cements credibility among top-20 hopefuls in one of the UFC’s most talent-dense divisions.

With styles that promise fireworks and a storyline pitting a surging prospect against a battle-tested knockout artist, Iwo Baraniewski vs Ibo Aslan stands out as an unmissable early prelim treat on a stacked UFC 323 card.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Iwo Baraniewski vs Ibo Aslan can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Dvalishvili vs Yan 2 can be found on the Dvalishvili vs Yan 2 event page.

Matchup & Fighter Profiles

Ibo Aslan (Blue Corner)

Age: 29
Country: Türkiye
Fighting Style: Pure striker, known for heavy hands and explosive finishes

Recent Form (Last 4 UFC Bouts)

• July 26, 2025 – Loss vs. Billy Elekana (Decision – Unanimous)
• February 22, 2025 – Loss vs. Ion Cutelaba (Submission – R1, 2:51)
• October 26, 2024 – Win vs. Rafael Cerqueira (KO/TKO – R1, 0:51)
• March 30, 2024 – Win vs. Anton Turkalj (KO/TKO – R3, 1:32)

Aslan entered the Oct. 26, 2024 card riding a four-fight win streak (all by KO/TKO), but his back-to-back setbacks to Cutelaba and Elekana have exposed areas of vulnerability against well-rounded opponents.

Strengths

• Finishing Power: 14 of 14 professional wins by knockout; 12 of those in Round 1.
• Striking Accuracy (47%): Converts nearly half of his significant strikes, demonstrating his precision when he lets his power go.
• Significant Strike Defense (60%): Deflects or avoids 6 of every 10 strikes thrown his way, giving him opportunities to counter.
• Takedown Defense (87%): Elite at keeping fights standing, negating wrestling attempts and forcing opponents to brawl.

Weaknesses

• Ground Game: 0% takedown offense and limited submission experience; once dragged down, he has few answers.
• Cardio Concerns: Early stoppages have hidden his gas tank; rounds 2–3 could reveal conditioning gaps.
• Susceptibility to Submission: Caught in an early arm-triangle by Cutelaba, suggesting lapses under scrambling pressure.

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Iwo Baraniewski (Red Corner)

Age: 26
Country: Poland
Fighting Style: Technical striker with crisp combinations and rapid-fire volume

Recent Form (UFC & Pro Debut)

• December 6, 2025 – Scheduled UFC debut at UFC 323
• Professional record: 1–0 (details of debut stoppage not publicly detailed)

Baraniewski arrives with an unblemished pro mark and a reputation for quick finishes on the regional scene. Though untested under the UFC banner, his debut will reveal if his offense translates to this elevated level.

Strengths

• Significant Strike Accuracy (67%): Lands two-thirds of his attempts, one of the highest marks in the division.
• Average Fight Time (0:20): Favors an aggressive start and overwhelming pace; opponents rarely settle in.
• Youth & Upside: At 26, still developing physically and tactically; high ceiling if he irons out defensive holes.

Weaknesses

• Significant Strike Defense (33%): Has absorbed a high volume of clean shots in limited action, suggesting defensive lapses.
• Grappling Unknowns: 0% takedown accuracy and no recorded takedown defense data; wrestling exchanges are a question mark.
• UFC Inexperience: No fight cards under the Octagon lights; nerves and pace of prelims can be a major adjustment.

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Styles Make Fights

• Striking vs. Striking: Both warriors prefer stand-up wars. Aslan’s raw power contrasts with Baraniewski’s pinpoint accuracy and high output.
• Fight IQ & Adaptability: Aslan must respect his foe’s volume and avoid being outworked. Baraniewski needs to show he can adjust to a veteran’s counter-punching.
• Durability & Cardio: Early stoppages have benefited both; if this fight goes beyond Round 1, conditioning and chin tests will decide the outcome.

This clash of contrasting striker profiles—with Aslan’s veteran power and Baraniewski’s technical precision—promises fireworks. Each fighter enters with clear edges and exploitable gaps, making this light heavyweight scrap one of the most intriguing openings on the UFC 323 early prelims.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Odds

• Iwo Baraniewski (Favorite): Ranging from –165 (Caesars) to –178 (FanDuel), with most books hanging around –170.
• Ibo Aslan (Underdog): Sitting between +137 (Bovada) and +145 (BetOnline.ag & BetMGM), with an average near +140.

Difference: Baraniewski’s heavy favorite status (roughly 2:1 moneyline) reflects the bookies’ faith in his explosive striking and upside. Aslan’s longer price tag underscores the market’s concern over his recent two-fight skid, despite his monstrous KO résumé.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On:

• For Underdog Value: BetOnline.ag and BetMGM currently offer the juiciest +145 on Aslan—topping the competition by 5 points.
• For Favorite Sharps: FanDuel’s –178 on Baraniewski delivers the highest return for a $1 wager, but bettors chasing a slightly softer line can find –165 at Caesars.

Line Movement & Swing Analysis

A peek at the odds history reveals notable early shifts:

• Baraniewski (Caesars): Opened at –160, drifted slightly to –145 when sharp money faded, then quickly firmed back to –165 as public cash poured in on the Polish prospect.
• Baraniewski (DraftKings): From –155 up to –166, then settling at –170—a clear indication that books trimmed the line as stakes increased.
• Aslan (Caesars): Began at +135, dipped to +122 during an early Aslan betting flurry, before retracting to +140 once more as liability balanced out.
• Aslan (Bovada): A roller-coaster between +130 and +145, reflecting back-and-forth confidence swings in the veteran striker’s ability to rebound.

Key Takeaway: Both camps have seen sizable movement—Baraniewski’s price went 10–15 cents in either direction, while Aslan’s angle swung by as much as 23 cents. Sharp action initially favored the underdog, but the late-money roar on Baraniewski ultimately restored him as the more attractive line.

Payout Scenarios & Implied Probabilities

• $1,000 on Ibo Aslan at +145
  • Profit: $1,450
  • Total Return: $2,450
  • Implied Win Chance: ~41%

• $1,000 on Iwo Baraniewski at –170
  • Profit: $588
  • Total Return: $1,588
  • Implied Win Chance: ~63%

Whether you’re chasing a high-upside payday with Aslan or taking the safer route backing Baraniewski’s debut hype, the current lines and their recent shifts paint a vivid picture of a fight that’s capturing bettors’ attention from multiple angles. Choose your spot accordingly and lock in the best available price before more money—and movement—hits the board.