Grant Dawson vs Manuel Torres Odds, Analysis & AI Pick

Grant Dawson vs Manuel Torres fight analysis

Fight Details

• Event: UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs Yan 2 (Preliminary Card)
• Date & Time: Sunday, December 7, 2025 (Prelims begin at 1:00 AM ET; this bout slated for approximately 2:45 AM ET)
• Venue: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada

UFC 323 returns to the bustling Strip with a stacked preliminary card, and one of the most intriguing lightweight matchups features the surging Grant Dawson against the explosive Mexican contender Manuel Torres. Headlined by two perennial top-five contenders in Merab Dvalishvili and Petr Yan, the T-Mobile Arena will be electric when Dawson and Torres step onto the Octagon under the bright lights of Las Vegas.

The Favorite

Grant Dawson enters this contest as the clear betting favorite, priced between –200 and –235 across major sportsbooks (FanDuel listing him as low as –235). Dawson, currently ranked #13 in the UFC lightweight division, brings a sterling 23-2-1 professional record into this showdown. A veteran of the Octagon since his debut in August 2017, Dawson has built his reputation on relentless wrestling and grappling prowess, boasting a remarkable 13 submission victories. His average fight time of 11:21 demonstrates his willingness to engage in measured battles that wear down opponents over three rounds. With a takedown accuracy of 41% and an equally formidable takedown defense of 57%, Dawson’s grappling is the anchor of his skill set, forcing adversaries into uncomfortable positions against the fence.

The Underdog

On the other side stands Manuel Torres, flying in as the underdog at roughly +170 to +180 odds. The 30-year-old Mexican striker has burst onto the scene since his UFC debut in May 2022, amassing a 16-3 record highlighted by a staggering 15 first-round finishes (8 by knockout, 7 by submission). Torres’s explosive power and finishing instinct make him a constant threat whenever he throws leather or hunts for openings on the mat. His striking accuracy lands at an impressive 60%, and his takedown defense sits high at 89%, underscoring his well-rounded abilities. Although unranked, Torres’s highlight-reel stoppages of Frank Camacho, Nikolas Motta, Chris Duncan, and most recently Drew Dober showcase a fighter on a meteoric rise.

Why This Matters

This matchup pits two contrasting styles and career trajectories against each other. Dawson’s methodical grind and grappling acumen versus Torres’s dynamic offensive firepower will determine whether the veteran grappler can neutralize the underdog’s finishing flair. For bettors, the odds reflect Dawson’s consistency and experience in five-round wars, but Torres’s first-round finishing rate offers high reward should he catch Dawson early.

As the preliminary card unfolds on December 7, all eyes will be on whether Grant Dawson can impose his takedowns and long-term pressure, or if Manuel Torres will shock the world by landing one of his signature knockout blows. Whichever fighter gains the upper hand, this lightweight clash promises fireworks under the bright lights of Las Vegas.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Grant Dawson vs Manuel Torres can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Dvalishvili vs Yan 2 can be found on the Dvalishvili vs Yan 2 event page.

Matchup Breakdown and Fighter Profiles

Manuel Torres: The Mexican Powerhouse

Age: 30
Country: Mexico (Chihuahua)
Fighting Style: Well-rounded MMA striker with submission chops
Physicals: 5’10” (70”), 156 lb; 73.5” reach

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights):

• Mar. 29, 2025: Win vs. Drew Dober (KO/TKO, R1 1:45)
• Sept. 14, 2024: Loss vs. Ignacio Bahamondes (KO/TKO, R1 4:02)
• Feb. 24, 2024: Win vs. Chris Duncan (Submission, R1 1:46)
• June 17, 2023: Win vs. Nikolas Motta (KO/TKO, R1 1:50)
• May 14, 2022: Win vs. Frank Camacho (KO/TKO, R1 3:27)

Manuel Torres exploded onto the UFC scene in 2022, and his 16-3 pro record is packed with savage first-round stoppages—15 in total. His 60% significant-strike accuracy underlines pinpoint power, while a daunting 89% takedown defense shows he can keep fights standing. Torres’s 7 submissions also signal a dangerous guard game once the fight hits the mat. However, his 53% striking-defense rate leaves him open to counters, and his average fight time of 2:30 suggests he’s yet to be tested in extended battles. A tough one-round war is his bread and butter; anything longer poses the question of his cardio and adaptability.

Strengths:

• Finishing Instinct: 15 first-round stoppages (8 KO/TKO, 7 subs)
• Striking Power & Precision: 60% accuracy, always hunting the finish
• Takedown Defense: 89% success fending off wrestlers

Weaknesses:

• Striking Defense: Absorbs nearly half of significant strikes (53% defended)
• Durability Over Distance: No fights past Round 1 in UFC; cardio untested
• Game Planning: Can be overly aggressive, leaving openings for counters

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Grant Dawson: The Unyielding Grappler

Age: 31
Country: United States (Cambria, CA)
Fighting Style: Elite wrestling and submission specialist
Physicals: 5’10” (70”), 156 lb; 72” reach

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights):

• Jan. 18, 2025: Win vs. Diego Ferreira (Decision – Unanimous)
• Oct. 12, 2024: Win vs. Rafa Garcia (KO/TKO, R2 1:42)
• June 1, 2024: Win vs. Joe Solecki (Decision – Unanimous)
• Oct. 7, 2023: Loss vs. Bobby Green (KO/TKO, R1 0:33)
• July 1, 2023: Win vs. Damir Ismagulov (Decision – Unanimous)

With a 23-2-1 record, Grant Dawson has carved out a reputation as one of the most relentless grapplers in the division. He averages 11:21 per bout, indicating comfort in deep waters, and has secured 13 submission wins inside the Octagon. His 41% takedown accuracy, combined with a respectable 57% takedown defense, underpins a game plan that leans heavily on wrestling control and ground pressure. Dawson’s 53% striking accuracy is serviceable, and his low first-round finish rate (7 total) underscores a patient, methodical approach. That being said, his 45% significant-strike defense suggests he can be tagged on the feet, and his takedown offense can be stifled by reactive opponents.

Strengths:

• Wrestling & Grappling: 13 submission victories, top-control specialist
• Cardio & Durability: Average fight time over 11 minutes, proven in three-round battles
• Fight IQ: Excellent at mixing levels, draining opponents across all phases

Weaknesses:

• Striking Defense: Concedes 55% of significant strikes attempted by opponents
• Early Finishing Power: Only 7 first-round finishes; fewer sudden-stoppage threats
• Takedown Consistency: 41% accuracy can be neutralized by elite takedown defenders

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This clash of styles—Torres’s explosive early offense versus Dawson’s grinding grappling—will define who controls the pace. Torres must ignite the fire early or risk being methodically dismantled in later rounds, while Dawson needs to weather the initial storm, secure takedowns, and grind out a victory on the mat.

Betting Odds and Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

• Grant Dawson (Favorite):
  • Odds range from –200 (BetOnline.ag) to –235 (FanDuel)
  • Best price to back Dawson: –200 at BetOnline.ag
• Manuel Torres (Underdog):
  • Odds range from +170 (Caesars, BetOnline.ag) to +180 (BetMGM, FanDuel, DraftKings)
  • Best price to back Torres: +180 at BetMGM, FanDuel, and DraftKings

As things stand, Dawson is a strong favorite—books imply roughly a two-thirds chance he wins—while Torres, the underdog, sits around a one-third chance. The widest gap between the two lines (–200 vs. +180) reflects the bookmakers’ confidence in Dawson’s grappling and experience.

Line Movement and Trends

A look at the odds history reveals notable swings:

• Manuel Torres at BetOnline.ag
  • Opened as high as +225 on Nov. 18
  • Dropped steadily to +145 by Nov. 19
  • Rebounded into the +170–+180 range by Nov. 24
• Grant Dawson at BetOnline.ag
  • Opened at –265 on Nov. 18
  • Climbed to a shorter –170 on Nov. 19
  • Settled around –200 by Nov. 24

Other books like Bovada and DraftKings have oscillated modestly (±5–10 cents) around their opening lines, suggesting sharp and recreational money trading positions on both sides. The most dramatic adjustment occurred in the early window at BetOnline.ag, where both fighters’ lines moved by roughly 80–90 cents within 24 hours—an indicator of heavy early action or a significant shift in public perception.

Best Sportsbook for Your Bet

• For Dawson: BetOnline.ag at –200 offers the juiciest favorite price
• For Torres: BetMGM (also FanDuel, DraftKings) at +180 gives the highest underdog payout

Choosing the softest favorite line (–200 versus –235) or the highest underdog line (+180 versus +170) can substantially boost your return.

Potential Payout & Implied Probability

If you wager $1,000 today:

• On Grant Dawson at –200:
  • Return: $1,500 total ($1,000 stake + $500 profit)
  • Implied win chance: ~67%
• On Manuel Torres at +180:
  • Return: $2,800 total ($1,000 stake + $1,800 profit)
  • Implied win chance: ~36%

Whichever side you back, understanding these line movements and capturing the best available price is key to maximizing your edge. With Dawson’s odds softening to –200 at BetOnline.ag and Torres holding strong at +180 on major books, bettors must weigh the risk/reward and shop around to lock in the optimal value.