Winner: Terrance McKinney
Confidence Score: 58Terrance McKinney's explosive finishing ability (16 first-round finishes out of 17 wins) and strong takedown game (40% accuracy, 78% defense) make him a significant early threat in lightweight matchups. While Christian Leroy Duncan has an impressive record and a notable reach advantage, his takedown accuracy is low (11%), and his takedown defense (71%) is not elite for defending McKinney's wrestling. Historically, fighters with McKinney's aggressive, fast-starting style and strong wrestling have a higher win rate in early finishes, especially against opponents with lower grappling output. Duncan's recent wins have come at middleweight and against less explosive, more methodical opponents. If McKinney can impose his pace early, he is likely to secure a finish or control the fight. However, if Duncan survives the early storm, his size and striking accuracy could become a factor, which tempers the confidence in this pick.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Terrance McKinney vs Chris Duncan can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Dvalishvili vs Yan 2 can be found on the Dvalishvili vs Yan 2 event page.
