Winner: Fares Ziam
Confidence Score: 58Fares Ziam has a significant reach advantage (75" vs 69" arm reach, 42" vs 41" leg reach) and is six years younger than Nazim Sadykhov, which is historically a strong predictor of success at lightweight. Ziam is on a five-fight win streak, including a KO/TKO of Matt Frevola and a recent win over Mike Davis, both solid UFC-level opponents. He has superior significant strike accuracy (52% vs 50%), much better strike defense (65% vs 50%), and a strong takedown defense (70%), which is important against Sadykhov's wrestling. Sadykhov is more aggressive and has more first-round finishes, but he is at a reach and defensive disadvantage and has not faced the same level of recent opposition. Historically, fighters with Ziam's reach, age, and recent form have a slight edge in similar matchups, especially when they can keep the fight at range and avoid early finishes. This is a close fight, but the edge goes to Ziam due to the combination of reach, defense, and recent proven performances against tough competition.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Nazim Sadykhov vs Fares Ziam can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Dvalishvili vs Yan 2 can be found on the Dvalishvili vs Yan 2 event page.
