Donte Johnson vs Sedriques Dumas UFC Analysis & AI Pick

Donte Johnson vs Sedriques Dumas Fight Analysis

Introduction

On Saturday, November 1, 2025, fight fans will flock to the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada, to kick off the preliminary card of UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs Onama. Among the six-bout lineup, a pivotal Middleweight showdown features rising prospect Donte Johnson taking on seasoned campaigner Sedriques Dumas. The clash is scheduled to start around 8:00 PM ET on ESPN+, and promises fireworks as Johnson makes his promotional debut against a warrior looking to rebound.

The Fighters

• Donte Johnson (1–0–0, United States)
  • The -260 favorite on the moneyline
  • UFC debuting on home soil in Las Vegas
  • Impressive striking accuracy at 71%, with an average fight time of just 1:04
  • Age: 26; style: well-rounded athlete with heavy hands and crisp combos

• Sedriques Dumas (10–3–0, United States)
  • The +220 underdog on the moneyline
  • A three-year UFC veteran with a notable 4 first-round finishes
  • Solid power: 4 KOs, 2 submissions; 45% significant strike accuracy
  • Age: 30; fighting out of Pensacola, Florida, with a kickboxing foundation

Why This Fight Matters

1. Emerging Talent vs. Established Warrior

   • Johnson arrives undefeated and oozing confidence, with a blistering debut that lasted just 64 seconds.
   • Dumas, though 2–3 in his last five, brings invaluable Octagon experience and finishing instincts.

2. Stylistic Contrast

   • Johnson’s pinpoint striking and takedown threat (0% accuracy to date, but a proven wrestling background) will be tested by Dumas’s kickboxing roots and counter-striking.
   • Dumas counters with 56% defense on significant strikes and 36% takedown accuracy, aiming to drag Johnson into deep waters.

3. High-Stakes Debut

   • A dominant outing by Johnson catapults him straight into the UFC’s Middleweight conversation—think top-15 potential if he looks sharp.
   • Conversely, a win for Dumas right after back-to-back losses could salvage momentum and re-establish his profile as a threat in the 185-pound division.

Betting Outlook

• With Donte Johnson favored at –260, expect bettors to back the newcomer if they value his striking efficiency and early-finish potential.
• Sedriques Dumas (+220) offers value for those banking on veteran savvy and a propensity for late-fight breakdowns.

As the lights dim and the cage door closes, all eyes will be on whether the young gun Johnson can uphold his underdog-esque aura of invincibility, or if Dumas will once again prove why experience matters in the unforgiving world of the UFC Middleweight division. Don’t miss a moment of this compelling matchup, which could define the next wave of contenders in 2026.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Donte Johnson vs Sedriques Dumas can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Garcia vs Onama can be found on the Garcia vs Onama event page.

Matchup & Fighter Profiles

Donte Johnson Profile

Age: 26
Country: United States
Fighting Style: Well-rounded striker with wrestling pedigree
UFC Record: 1–0–0
Key Metrics

• Significant Strike Accuracy: 71%
• Significant Strike Defense: 50%
• Average Fight Time: 1:04

Recent Form

• Nov 1, 2025 – UFC Debut vs. Opponent A: Win by TKO (Round 1, 1:04)

Johnson arrives in the UFC riding the crest of a swift, one-and-done promotional debut. He finished his first opponent in just over a minute, showcasing crisp combinations and explosive power. Although he has just one recorded bout, his rapid rise through regional promotions points to a high-octane athlete built for highlight-reel finishes.

Strengths

• Explosive Striking: A 71% connect rate on significant strikes well above the divisional average (55–58%) makes Johnson a true out‐of‐nowhere knockout threat.
• Early-Finish Upside: An average fight time of 1:04 speaks to his capacity to impose his gameplan immediately, forcing opponents to navigate a minefield from the opening bell.
• Well-Rounded Base: Despite no takedown attempts logged, reports from camps cite a collegiate wrestling background—an asset that could round out his aggressive striking.

Weaknesses

• Experience Gap: One professional fight leaves Johnson untested in later rounds and against seasoned UFC competition.
• Durability Questions: A 50% significant strike defense suggests he can be tagged if exchanges drag on. Longer scrambles or grappling-heavy encounters remain an unknown.
• Ground Game Metrics: With 0% takedown accuracy and 0% defense recorded, there’s scant data on his ability to dictate where the fight goes once the initial onslaught subsides.

---

Sedriques Dumas Profile

Age: 30
Country: United States
Fighting Style: Kickboxer with submission capabilities
UFC Record: 10–3–0 (4 KOs, 2 Subs)
Key Metrics

• Significant Strike Accuracy: 45%
• Significant Strike Defense: 56%
• Takedown Accuracy: 36%
• Takedown Defense: 40%
• Average Fight Time: 7:36

Recent Form (Last 5)

1. Sep 13, 2025 – Loss vs. Zachary Reese (Could Not Continue, R1, 0:51)
2. Apr 12, 2025 – Loss vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (KO/TKO, R1, 2:49)
3. Aug 3, 2024 – Win vs. Denis Tiuliulin (Decision – Unanimous)
4. Mar 30, 2024 – Loss vs. Nursultan Ruziboev (KO/TKO, R1, 3:18)
5. Oct 21, 2023 – Win vs. Abu Azaitar (Decision – Unanimous)

Dumas enters this contest off back-to-back defeats, but his five-fight sample still reflects a fighter who can finish fights both on the feet and on the mat. His kickboxing foundation is bolstered by a willingness to hunt takedowns, making him unpredictable.

Strengths

• Balanced Offense: With 4 KOs and 2 submissions, Dumas has proven he can end fights anywhere—pressure striking coupled with sneaky ground entries.
• Striking Defense: A 56% success rate defending significant strikes suggests he slips or blocks well enough to stay upright and unleash counters.
• Takedown Threat: At 36% accuracy, Dumas can force wrestlers into uncomfortable scrambles and nullify opponents’ comfort zones.

Weaknesses

• Defensive Grappling: Just a 40% takedown defense allows aggressive wrestlers to pin him against the fence and work top control.
• Early Vulnerability: Three of his last four losses came in the first round, indicating possible lapses in early fight awareness or conditioning.
• Pace & Conditioning: An average fight time north of seven minutes points to slower cruising speed; if pressed into late-round firefights, he may gas against high-octane opponents.

---

Head-to-Head Breakdown

This bout pits Johnson’s explosive, high-volume striking against Dumas’s seasoned kickboxing and grappling mix. Johnson’s sub-two-minute finishing prowess threatens to eclipse Dumas before he can settle into his rhythm. Conversely, if Dumas weathers the initial storm and takes the fight beyond the opening three-minute window, his cardio and experience could tilt the scales. The winner will be the athlete who can impose their blueprint fastest—whether that’s Johnson’s all-out blitz or Dumas’s measured, multi-faceted attack.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Odds Snapshot

As of the latest update, BetOnline.ag lists the following moneyline odds for Donte Johnson vs. Sedriques Dumas:

• Donte Johnson: –260 (favorite)
• Sedriques Dumas: +220 (underdog)

The 480-point gap underscores Johnson’s status as the betting favorite, but Dumas’s relatively lively +220 price still offers significant upside. If you’re shopping for the best value, BetOnline.ag remains the go-to sportsbook for these exact lines, with real-time updates and a strong reputation among UFC bettors.

Line Movement Analysis

A close look at the line history reveals noteworthy swings over the past few days:

• Donte Johnson (–350 → –300 → –260)

• Opened at –350, shortened to –300, and now sits at –260.
• The line drift from –350 to –260 (a 90-point move) indicates growing confidence in Dumas or money shifting away from the heavy favorite.

• Sedriques Dumas (+285 → +250 → +220)

• Launched at +285, dipped to +250, and is currently +220.
• A 65-point swing toward Dumas suggests sharp action or public backing on the veteran, trimming the gap and making him more attractive.

These shifts demonstrate that early bettors on Dumas have seen their potential returns shrink—evidence that sizeable wagers have come in on the underdog. Meanwhile, Johnson’s odds shortening less dramatically implies balanced money on both sides once the action settled.

Payout Scenarios & Implied Probability

If you’re wondering what a $1,000 wager could yield:

• Bet $1,000 on Donte Johnson at –260
  • Profit: $385
  • Total Payout: $1,385

• Bet $1,000 on Sedriques Dumas at +220
  • Profit: $2,200
  • Total Payout: $3,200

Based on these lines, the implied win probabilities are:

• Donte Johnson: ~72% chance to win
• Sedriques Dumas: ~31% chance to win

(Note: Percentages include the sportsbook’s built-in margin.)

Key Takeaways for Bettors

• Underdog Value: Dumas’s odds have tightened considerably. Those “buying low” at +220 still get a strong payout but should act quickly before further line compression.
• Favorite Support: Johnson’s status as a sharp favorite remains intact even after bettors trimmed him from –350 to –260. If you back him, lock in current odds before any late swings.
• Best Sportsbook: Right now, BetOnline.ag offers the most competitive and stable lines for this fight. Monitoring their board is critical, as they’ve led the market on both initial prices and real-time adjustments.

Whether you side with Johnson’s overwhelming favorite status or Dumas’s high-reward underdog appeal, understanding these odds dynamics—and acting before they shift again—will be key to maximizing your UFC betting edge.