Winner: Matt Schnell
Confidence Score: 68Matt Schnell holds key advantages in this flyweight matchup. He is more experienced at the UFC level and has faced a higher caliber of opposition. Schnell has a 2-inch height and 2-inch reach advantage, which is significant in the flyweight division. Both fighters have similar striking accuracy (40%) and defense (Schnell 55%, Morales 57%), but Schnell's submission game is more proven, with 9 submission wins and 9 first-round finishes, compared to Morales' 6 submissions and just 1 first-round finish. Schnell's takedown defense (43%) is superior to Morales' (29%), and Morales has struggled against strong grapplers and finishers in the past. Schnell's recent competition has been tougher, and fighters with his combination of size, submission ability, and experience have historically outperformed younger, less battle-tested opponents like Morales. Schnell's age (35) is a slight concern, but Morales' recent losses and lack of UFC momentum make Schnell the more reliable pick.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Matt Schnell vs Joseph Morales can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Bonfim vs Brown can be found on the Bonfim vs Brown event page.
