Winner: Ismael Bonfim
Confidence Score: 68Ismael Bonfim has demonstrated a higher level of competition and performance in the UFC compared to Chris Padilla. Bonfim's significant strike accuracy (55%) and defense (71%) are notably better than Padilla's (52% accuracy, 58% defense), which is critical in a striking-heavy lightweight matchup. Bonfim also has a solid takedown defense (77%) and has proven his ability to finish fights with both knockouts and submissions. While Padilla has a slight reach and size advantage, and a perfect takedown defense in limited UFC action, his UFC experience is minimal and his striking defense is not as strong. Historically, fighters with Bonfim's metrics and UFC experience have performed better in similar lightweight matchups. Bonfim's higher average level of opposition and proven ability to win decisions and finish fights give him the edge.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Chris Padilla vs Ismael Bonfim can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Bonfim vs Brown can be found on the Bonfim vs Brown event page.
