Winner: Marco Tulio
Confidence Score: 62Marco Tulio stands out with significantly higher striking accuracy (60% vs 44%) and striking defense (62% vs 52%) compared to Christian Leroy Duncan. While both are finishers and strikers, Tulio's edge in reach (3 inches longer arms) and his ability to absorb and avoid damage make him more effective in stand-up exchanges. Duncan has a wrestling edge (42% takedown accuracy vs Tulio's 20%), but Tulio's recent knockout wins and superior striking metrics are more relevant given both fighters' tendencies to keep the fight standing. Additionally, fighters with Tulio's combination of reach, accuracy, and recent knockout form have had a higher win rate in similar matchups in the middleweight division. Duncan's takedown defense (50%) is not enough to guarantee a ground advantage, and his lower strike defense could be a liability against a powerful, accurate striker like Tulio. Therefore, Tulio is the slight favorite in a competitive matchup.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Christian Leroy Duncan vs Marco Tulio can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Bonfim vs Brown can be found on the Bonfim vs Brown event page.
