Winner: Jackson McVey
Confidence Score: 70Jackson McVey is the more promising prospect in this matchup. Despite both fighters coming off losses, McVey is younger (26 vs 30), has a longer leg reach (46.5" vs 42"), and matches Valentin in arm reach. McVey's finishing rate is exceptional with all 6 of his wins coming by first-round finish, indicating explosive early fight potential. Both have 0% takedown accuracy and defense, so this will likely be decided on the feet or by submission. Valentin has a strong submission record (7 wins by sub), but his striking defense is very poor (33%), and he's been knocked out in 2 of his last 3. McVey's recent loss is less concerning given his age and upside, and historically, younger fighters with high finishing rates and physical advantages tend to rebound well against opponents with poor striking defense and recent knockout losses. McVey's Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu base also gives him enough grappling to survive Valentin's submissions. The pick is McVey, but with some caution due to both fighters' defensive liabilities.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Jackson McVey vs Robert Valentin can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Bonfim vs Brown can be found on the Bonfim vs Brown event page.
