Santos vs Croden: UFC Betting Odds & Fight Analysis

Melissa Croden vs Luana Santos Fight Breakdown

Introduction

On Saturday, December 13, 2025, fight fans will be treated to an exciting Women’s Bantamweight clash as Luana Santos takes on Melissa Croden on the preliminary card of UFC Fight Night: Royval vs Kape. The bout is scheduled to take place at the renowned UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada, kicking off a night of high-stakes action. As part of the preliminary lineup, this contest promises fireworks right out of the gate, setting the tone for an electrifying evening of mixed martial arts.

Event Details

• Date: Saturday, December 13, 2025
• Venue: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada
• Card Position: Preliminary Card
• Weight Class: Women’s Bantamweight (136 lb limit)

Betting Odds & Market Movers

Entering the cage as the favorite, Brazilian judoka Luana Santos carries odds of -170 (BetOnline.ag), reflecting sharp confidence in her well-rounded skill set and impressive 9-2-0 professional record. Santos boasts five submission victories—including four finishes inside the distance—and a formidable takedown defense rate of 83%, making her the standout pick for bettors who value grappling prowess.

Conversely, Canadian striker Melissa Croden lines up as the underdog at +145. Despite a relatively brief UFC résumé (7-2-0 overall), Croden turned heads in her promotional debut on October 18, 2025, when she dismantled Tainara Lisboa via third-round TKO. Backed by five career knockout wins, Croden’s power and precision on the feet will be dangers Santos cannot afford to underestimate.

Momentum & Stylistic Contrast

• Luana Santos
  • Record: 9-2-0 (1 KO, 5 Submissions)
  • Strengths: 50% takedown accuracy, 63% significant strike defense, four first-round finishes
  • Recent Form: Submit win over Tainara Lisboa (May 2025), unanimous decision loss to Casey O’Neill (Aug. 2024)

• Melissa Croden
  • Record: 7-2-0 (5 KOs, 1 Submission)
  • Strengths: Heavy-handed striking, resilient cardio, 69-inch frame with 68.5-inch reach
  • Recent Form: TKO win over Tainara Lisboa in UFC debut (Oct. 2025)

This matchup is a classic striker-versus-grappler showdown. Santos will look to close distance, secure takedowns, and capitalize on her submission pedigree, while Croden aims to keep the fight standing, unleash her power shots, and test Santos’ striking defense. With both athletes hungry to climb the Women’s Bantamweight rankings, the stakes are high: a win here could propel either fighter into the conversation for future main card slots—and potentially a first-ever UFC Top 15 ranking.

Prepare for an intense, action-packed affair as these two contrasting skill sets collide under the bright lights of the UFC Apex. Whether you’re backing the favorite or siding with the underdog, Melissa Croden vs Luana Santos is poised to deliver pivotal moments and a definitive statement in the Women’s Bantamweight division.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Melissa Croden vs Luana Santos can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Royval vs Kape can be found on the Royval vs Kape event page.

Matchup & Individual Profiles

Luana Santos Profile

Age: 25
Country: Brazil
Fighting Style: Judo / Grappling Specialist
Overall Record: 9-2-0 (1 KO, 5 Submissions)

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

• May 17, 2025: Submission win (rear-naked choke) over Tainara Lisboa in Round 2 (4:59)
• Aug. 17, 2024: Unanimous decision loss to Casey O’Neill after 3 rounds
• July 13, 2024: Submission win (arm-triangle choke) over Mariya Agapova in Round 1 (3:27)
• Dec. 9, 2023: Unanimous decision win against Stephanie Egger after 3 rounds
• Aug. 12, 2023: TKO win over Juliana Miller in Round 1 (3:41)

Santos has jumped onto the UFC scene with an aggressive grappling-heavy approach. Four of her first five wins came in the opening round, underlining her ability to dictate the pace early.

Melissa Croden Profile

Age: 34
Country: Canada (Toronto)
Fighting Style: Well-Rounded Striker / MMA
Overall Record: 7-2-0 (5 KOs, 1 Submission)

Recent Form (Last 3 Fights)

• Oct. 18, 2025: TKO win over Tainara Lisboa in Round 3 (4:32) — UFC debut
• Prior Regional Fights:
  • Multiple first- and second-round knockouts on Canadian regional circuit
  • One regional submission win, demonstrating basic grappling chops

Croden’s pro résumé is built on power. Five of her seven wins have come by knockout, and she showed in her UFC debut that her hands carry real fight-ending potency.

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Strengths & Weaknesses

Luana Santos

Strengths

• Elite Grappling & Takedowns: 50% takedown accuracy and 83% takedown defense make her one of the division’s most formidable wrestlers.
• Submission Prowess: Five career submissions; able to chain from throws into dominant ground positions.
• Finishing Instinct: Four first-round finishes indicate she closes distance quickly and decisively.

Weaknesses

• Striking Volume: At 53% significant strike accuracy, she is effective but not overwhelmingly dominant on the feet.
• Pace Over Distance: Average fight time of 9:25 suggests potential cardio questions if the bout remains standing or drags beyond early frames.

Melissa Croden

Strengths

• Knockout Power: 71% of her wins by knockout; her 5 KOs demonstrate one-punch threat.
• Reach & Height Advantage: Standing 69 inches tall with a 68.5-inch arm reach, she can control distance and set up counters.
• Durability: Only two career losses, showing resilience under pressure.

Weaknesses

• Grappling Uncertainty: With limited UFC grappling data, her takedown defense and ground game remain untested against elite grapplers.
• Experience Gap: Making only her second UFC appearance at age 34, she may struggle with pace and five-round intensity compared to younger foes.
• Cardio Over Long Hauls: TKO in Round 3 of her debut shows grit, but fights that go deep into the later rounds could expose stamina limits.

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This stylistic and physical contrast—Santos’ grappling excellence versus Croden’s knockout artistry—creates a high-stakes chess match. Santos will aim to smother strikes with clinch work, secure takedowns, and hunt submissions, while Croden must keep the fight upright, utilize her reach, and land one-punch finishes before the mat game begins. Fans and bettors alike will be watching to see if savvy Judo can neutralize raw power in this pivotal Women’s Bantamweight showdown.

Odds & Betting History

Current Betting Odds

• Luana Santos: –170 (favorite)
• Melissa Croden: +145 (underdog)

The current line clearly favors Luana Santos at –170, meaning she is the sportsbook’s pick to control the fight. Melissa Croden, sitting at +145, offers a significantly higher payout for bettors willing to back the underdog. The gap between these lines reflects both Santos’s grappling pedigree and Croden’s newcomer status in the UFC’s Women’s Bantamweight division.

Line Movement & Historical Trends

Both fighters opened with relatively close odds on December 5, 2025, before shifting by December 6:

• Santos: Moved from –150 to –170
• Croden: Shifted from +130 to +145

This swing indicates that early money is coming in on Santos. The book has adjusted to balance liability, making her a stronger favorite as more bets landed on her – and making Croden slightly more attractive for risk-takers. There have been no massive shocks in the market—no 300-point swings here—but the steady drift does underscore growing confidence in Santos’s ability to execute her game plan.

Potential Payouts & Implied Probabilities

If you’re deciding between a $1,000 wager on either athlete, here’s what you would see:

• Bet $1,000 on Luana Santos at –170
  • Profit: $588
  • Total Payout: $1,588

• Bet $1,000 on Melissa Croden at +145
  • Profit: $1,450
  • Total Payout: $2,450

Behind these figures lie the implied chances each fighter has to win: Santos (~63%) and Croden (~41%). These percentages reflect the market’s consensus on how likely each outcome is—no complicated formulas needed, just what the odds suggest.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

After surveying top online sportsbooks, BetOnline.ag stands out for this particular matchup. Their line (–170/+145) is as sharp as you’ll find, and they offer early odds updates and a straightforward interface. If you’re looking to lock in the best number on either Santos or Croden, BetOnline.ag is the recommended destination.

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Whether you’re leaning into the favorite’s grappling dominance or chasing the high-reward underdog route, understanding these odds—and how they’ve moved—can give you a tactical edge. As the fight approaches, monitor for any further line shifts: a sudden jump in Santos’s odds could signal last-minute support, while a dip in Croden’s number might hint at contrarian value for those backing a late surprise. Good luck, and bet responsibly!