Pat Sabatini vs Chepe Mariscal UFC 322 Odds & Analysis

# Pat Sabatini vs Chepe Mariscal Fight Breakdown

## Event Overview  
On **Saturday, November 15, 2025**, two of the UFC’s most dynamic featherweights square off on the **Early Preliminary Card** of **UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev**, live from the iconic **Madison Square Garden** in New York City. The action for this encounter is slated to begin at **6:00 PM ET** (23:00 UTC), setting the stage for an explosive clash that pits a slick submission ace against a relentless brawler.

## Betting Landscape  
Oddsmakers have installed **Chepe Mariscal** as the slight **favorite** across major sportsbooks, with moneyline prices hovering around **–115** at Bovada and FanDuel. In contrast, **Pat Sabatini** checks in as the modest **underdog** at roughly **–105**, reflecting public respect for his world-class Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu credentials but also acknowledging Mariscal’s proven ability to grind out victories in three full rounds.

## Fighter Profiles  
- **Chepe Mariscal (18-6-0)**  
  • Age: 32  
  • Style: Brawler  
  • UFC Debut: June 24, 2023  
  • Striking Accuracy: 56% / Defense: 52%  
  • Takedown Defense: 73%  
  • Recent Form: Four straight wins, including unanimous decisions over Ricardo Ramos and Damon Jackson.

- **Pat Sabatini (20-5-0)**  
  • Age: 34  
  • Style: Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Specialist  
  • UFC Debut: February 20, 2021  
  • Striking Accuracy: 62% / Defense: 50%  
  • Takedown Accuracy: 49%  
  • Recent Form: Undefeated in his last two outings, highlighted by a submission victory over Jonathan Pearce and a dominant decision against Joanderson Brito.

## What to Watch For  
1. **Early Scrambles & Striking Exchanges**  
   Mariscal’s heavy hands and pressure-pushing style will test Sabatini’s composure early. Look for **Mariscal** to close distance, force clinches against the cage and unleash short-range power shots, while **Sabatini** will use precision counters and lateral movement to pick his spots.

2. **Ground Game Dynamics**  
   Should this fight hit the mat, the momentum could swing dramatically. **Sabatini’s** record boasts 12 submission wins—many secured in round one—thanks to his elite guard work and slick transitions. Conversely, **Mariscal** defends takedowns at a robust 73% rate and can return to his feet with authority.

3. **Fight IQ & Cardio**  
   Conditioning, corner adjustments and the ability to manage pacing will be critical. Mariscal has shown durability over three five-minute rounds, while Sabatini’s average fight time of 8:23 suggests a penchant for early finishes—especially via choke or arm lock.

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This matchup presents a classic stylistic puzzle: **the pressure-fighter** versus **the submission savant**. With the bout poised on a knife’s edge—reflected by the razor-thin betting lines and contrasting fight metrics—fans and bettors alike should expect a tactical chess match that could explode at any moment. Whether you side with the **favorite** or back the **underdog**, Sabatini vs Mariscal promises to deliver fireworks in front of the New York City faithful.  

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Pat Sabatini vs Chepe Mariscal can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Della Maddalena vs Makhachev can be found on the Della Maddalena vs Makhachev event page.

## Matchup & Fighter Profiles

### Chepe Mariscal  
**Age:** 32 · **Country:** United States · **Fighting Style:** Brawler  

#### Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)  
- **Mar 1, 2025:** Def. Ricardo Ramos by Unanimous Decision (3 Rounds)  
- **Aug 10, 2024:** Def. Damon Jackson by Unanimous Decision (3 Rounds)  
- **Apr 6, 2024:** Def. Morgan Charrière by Split Decision (3 Rounds)  
- **Sep 9, 2023:** Def. Jack Jenkins via TKO (Round 2, 3:19)  
- **Jun 24, 2023:** Def. Trevor Peek by Unanimous Decision (3 Rounds)  

Mariscal enters this bout riding a **five-fight winning streak**, demonstrating durability and the ability to grind out decisions against seasoned foes. His penchant for late-round pressure has proven effective, but he has yet to secure a submission victory under the UFC banner.

#### Strengths  
- **Pressure & Volume:** Mariscal throws an average of 110 significant strikes per 15 minutes, overwhelming opponents with constant forward momentum.  
- **Striking Accuracy (56%) & Defense (52%):** He lands over half of his significant strikes and deflects more than half of what he absorbs, keeping damage to a minimum.  
- **Takedown Defense (73%):** Excellent scrambling ability allows him to stay upright against wrestlers and submission artists.  
- **Cardio & Durability:** Five unanimous decision wins show he maintains pace and toughness over three full rounds.

#### Weaknesses  
- **Takedown Offense (39%):** Mariscal struggles to implement his own wrestling, limiting ground-and-pound or submission setups.  
- **Submission Defense (–):** While his takedown defense is strong, he has not faced an elite grappler like Sabatini, raising questions about his ground survival against high-level BJJ.  
- **Finish Rate:** Only 5 first-round finishes in 24 career bouts suggest he may lack a true fight-ending shot at elite levels.

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### Pat Sabatini  
**Age:** 34 · **Country:** United States · **Fighting Style:** Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Specialist  

#### Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)  
- **Apr 5, 2025:** Def. Joanderson Brito by Unanimous Decision (3 Rounds)  
- **Oct 12, 2024:** Def. Jonathan Pearce via Submission (Round 1, 4:06)  
- **Nov 11, 2023:** Lost to Diego Lopes via TKO (Round 1, 1:30)  
- **Jun 17, 2023:** Def. Lucas Almeida via Submission (Round 2, 1:48)  
- **Sep 17, 2022:** Lost to Damon Jackson via TKO (Round 1, 1:09)  

Sabatini’s last five outings highlight his **elite grappling**—three submission wins—and a pair of knockout setbacks that underscore the ever-present risk when deploying a forward-leaning ground attack.

#### Strengths  
- **Submission Expertise (12 Career Subs):** Sabatini boasts an 80% success rate when securing takedowns, with his triangle chokes and armbars proving night-night weapons.  
- **Striking Accuracy (62%):** His jab-lead combinations are efficient, setting up level changes and discouraging wild counters.  
- **Takedown Accuracy (49%):** Near 50% success allows him to dictate where the fight goes—especially dangerous for opponents with below-average top control.  
- **First-Round Finishes (8):** His early-round urgency often catches opponents off guard before they find their rhythm.

#### Weaknesses  
- **Striking Defense (50%):** Sabatini absorbs one in two significant strikes, exposing him to heavy hitters in the pocket.  
- **Takedown Defense (50%):** Elite wrestlers have found success against him; while he excels offensively, abandoning takedown defense can lead to lopsided grappling scraps.  
- **Cardio in Deep Water:** With an average fight time of 8:23, prolonged battles into the championship rounds remain largely untested territory.

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This matchup is a classic **striker-vs-grappler** puzzle. **Mariscal’s pressure and cardio** meet **Sabatini’s submission pedigree**. Each fighter will need to exploit the other’s vulnerabilities—Mariscal’s ground game and Sabatini’s defensive striking—to emerge victorious.  

## Betting Odds & Line Movement

### Current Moneyline Odds  
- **Chepe Mariscal (Favorite)**  
  - Bovada: **–115**  
  - BetOnline.ag: **–113** (Best value for favorites)  
  - FanDuel: **–120**  

- **Pat Sabatini (Underdog)**  
  - Bovada: **–105** (Best value for underdogs)  
  - BetOnline.ag: **–107**  
  - FanDuel: **–106**  

Oddsmakers have installed **Mariscal** as the slight favorite, with lines clustered between –113 and –120, while **Sabatini** is the underdog at roughly –105 to –107. The narrow spread underscores how evenly matched these featherweights are, and where you shop for lines can meaningfully affect your potential payout.

### Line Movement & Key Swings  
- On **BetOnline.ag**, **Mariscal** opened as high as **–163** on October 29, then steadily drifted to **–113** by November 6—a swing of 50 points reflecting sharp money on Sabatini and/or public hesitancy.  
- At the same book, **Sabatini** began at **+143** (October 29) before flipping into underdog territory and settling at **–107** as of fight week. This dramatic shift suggests early support for the grappler among savvy bettors.  
- **Bovada**’s market moved modestly for both men between **–103** and **–117**, indicating less volatility but still a gradual tilt toward Mariscal.  
- **FanDuel** positions Mariscal at a firm **–120**, the shortest price on the board, while Sabatini sits at **–106**, marginally worse than his best available –105 at Bovada.

These line moves reveal two important trends:  
1. **Sharp action** has backed Sabatini heavily since late October, driving his price down from a tempting +143 to a sub–110 underdog.  
2. **Public bettors** remain comfortable laying juice on Mariscal, but odds have softened as money continues to bet on the submission specialist.

### Payout Scenarios & Implied Chances  
If you had **$1,000** to wager, here’s what you’d see at the top books today:

- **$1,000 on Chepe Mariscal at –113 (BetOnline.ag)**  
  • **Profit:** $885   
  • **Total Return:** $1,885  

- **$1,000 on Pat Sabatini at –105 (Bovada)**  
  • **Profit:** $952   
  • **Total Return:** $1,952  

**Implied probabilities** based on these lines peg Mariscal at roughly **53%** to win and Sabatini at about **51%**. Though these figures overlap (and include vig), they highlight just how razor-thin the betting market believes this fight to be.

### Best Sportsbook to Bet On  
- **Favorite (Mariscal):** BetOnline.ag at **–113**  
- **Underdog (Sabatini):** Bovada at **–105**  

By seeking out the softest line on your chosen fighter, you maximize profit potential—an extra point in your favor can translate to dozens of dollars in saved juice when wagering four figures. Given the dramatic early swings and the tightness of current odds, shopping lines across multiple sportsbooks is more important than ever for featherweight bettors.