Winner: Nurullo Aliev
Confidence Score: 85Nurullo Aliev is a highly touted undefeated prospect (10-0) with a strong wrestling base, which is a historically dominant style in the lightweight division, especially against UFC newcomers. He has a significant advantage in experience at the UFC level, with two years of UFC tenure and high-level competition, compared to Shem Rock who is making his UFC debut at age 32. Aliev's stats show solid grappling metrics (55% takedown accuracy, 46% significant strike accuracy, and 59% strike defense). Shem Rock has no UFC-level stats or finishes, making him an unknown quantity at this level. Historically, undefeated fighters with a wrestling base and a strong record of control and defense have a high win rate against debuting fighters, especially when there is an age gap (Aliev is 24, Rock is 32). The data and style matchup strongly favor Aliev, barring a major upset or unseen factor.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Nurullo Aliev vs Shem Rock can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Tsarukyan vs Hooker can be found on the Tsarukyan vs Hooker event page.
