Nicolas Dalby vs Saygid Izagakhmaev UFC Odds & Analysis

Nicolas Dalby vs Saygid Izagakhmaev fight analysis

Fight Details

• Date: Saturday, November 22, 2025
• Event: UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs Hooker (Preliminary Card)
• Venue: ABHA Arena, Doha, Qatar
• Scheduled Start Time: 15:00 UTC

Welcome to our comprehensive fight analysis of the Welterweight clash between Nicolas Dalby and Saygid Izagakhmaev. This pivotal preliminary‐card bout will kick off the action-packed UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs Hooker on November 22, 2025, at the state-of-the-art ABHA Arena in Doha. Fans around the globe will tune in as these two warriors step into the Octagon at 15:00 UTC to stake their claim and build momentum on a stacked card.

Favorite vs Underdog

Oddsmakers have installed Russian newcomer Saygid Izagakhmaev as the heavy favorite at –360, while seasoned veteran Nicolas Dalby enters the cage as the underdog at +295. Although this marks Izagakhmaev’s UFC debut, his undefeated professional record (0-0-0 in the UFC, but decorated with national wrestling titles abroad) and elite grappling pedigree have sportsbooks leaning heavily in his favor. Conversely, Dalby brings a wealth of Octagon experience—he’s logged 23 wins, 6 losses, and 1 draw over a decade in MMA—and is known for his durability, precise striking (44% significant-strike accuracy) and stout takedown defense (59%). Despite entering as the betting long shot, Dalby’s veteran savvy and iron chin could pose significant challenges to the promotion’s latest prospect.

Key Storylines to Watch

This matchup presents a compelling narrative arc:

• Dalby’s resurgence: At 40 years old, Dalby is one of the eldest competitors on the preliminary slate. After suffering back-to-back losses to Randy Brown (KO in Round 2) and Rinat Fakhretdinov (split decision), he must leverage his 70-inch height, 74.5-inch reach, and octagon IQ to reset his UFC career.
• Izagakhmaev’s arrival: The 31-year-old Russian debuts with a spotless record in international competition. Blessed with explosive athleticism and a gold-medal wrestling résumé, he’ll look to dictate where the fight goes—keeping it upright to land strikes or taking it to the mat to control and finish.
• Division implications: A win for Dalby could keep him relevant in the deep Welterweight ranks, while a debut victory for Izagakhmaev would instantly catapult him toward the division’s fringes, setting up potential marquee matchups next year.

As Qatari fight fans pack the ABHA Arena—UFC’s first card in Qatar—expect both athletes to bring high‐octane action. Whether Dalby uses veteran cunning or Izagakhmaev showcases raw power and grappling prowess, this Welterweight tussle is poised to set the tone for a thrilling evening of fights.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Nicolas Dalby vs Saygid Izagakhmaev can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Tsarukyan vs Hooker can be found on the Tsarukyan vs Hooker event page.

Matchup and Individual Profiles

Nicolas Dalby Profile

Age: 40
Country: Denmark
Fighting Style: Well-rounded MMA with a boxing base and strong takedown defense

Background & Recent Form

Nicolas Dalby is a ten-year UFC veteran who made his promotional debut in May 2015. Known for his measured striking and cage IQ, Dalby has compiled a professional record of 23–6–1. Over his last five fights he is 3–2:

• Apr. 26, 2025 vs. Randy Brown – Loss (KO/TKO, Round 2, 1:39)
• Jun. 22, 2024 vs. Rinat Fakhretdinov – Loss (Split Decision)
• Nov. 04, 2023 vs. Gabriel Bonfim – Win (KO/TKO, Round 2, 4:33)
• Jun. 17, 2023 vs. Muslim Salikhov – Win (Unanimous Decision)
• Jan. 21, 2023 vs. Warlley Alves – Win (Split Decision)

Strengths

• Striking Accuracy (44%): Dalby picks his shots well, landing nearly half of his significant strikes.
• Takedown Defense (59%): He stuffs opponents’ wrestling attempts, forcing fights to stay upright where he’s most comfortable.
• Cardio & Durability: An average fight time of 13:09 and only three first-round finishes conceded highlight his conditioning and iron chin.

Weaknesses

• Age & Punch Resistance: At 40, recent KO losses suggest a potential decline in punch resistance and reflexes.
• Takedown Offense (28%): While he defends takedowns effectively, Dalby’s own attempts land less than one-third of the time, limiting his ability to control grappling exchanges.
• Pace-setting: His often methodical approach can allow younger, aggressive fighters to dictate the tempo and accumulate damage early.

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Saygid Izagakhmaev Profile

Age: 31
Country: Russia
Fighting Style: Elite wrestling pedigree with growing striking skillset

Background & Recent Form

A decorated grappler, Saygid Izagakhmaev steps into the UFC Octagon with an unblemished professional record (UFC: 0–0–0) but boasts multiple national championships in wrestling and combat sambo. While detailed records from regional promotions are scarce, he enters this bout on a significant winning streak—demonstrating dominant takedown chains and ever-improving stand-up at international tournaments.

Strengths

• Wrestling & Grappling Control: Izagakhmaev’s gold-medal résumé translates into explosive takedowns and top-control pressure, where opponents have struggled to escape.
• Athleticism & Power: At 31 in his physical prime, he combines strength and speed, generating high-level takedown entries and finishing power.
• Adaptability: Early career footage shows rapid improvement in boxing range-finding and defensive striking, hinting at a well-rounded MMA skill set.

Weaknesses

• UFC Inexperience: The biggest question mark is how he handles five-minute rounds against seasoned UFC opponents under the bright lights and intense crowd.
• Striking Defense Under Pressure: While improving, his defensive striking numbers remain untested against high-caliber hitters—Dalby’s 44% accuracy could expose holes in Izagakhmaev’s guard.
• Cardio in Deep Water: Extended grappling scrambles in the Octagon can tax even elite wrestlers; how he paces himself over three rounds will be critical.

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This clash pits Dalby’s veteran savvy and iron chin against Izagakhmaev’s relentless wrestling and raw power. As Denmark’s proven tactician faces Russia’s rising grappling star, each man must exploit the other’s vulnerabilities to secure a pivotal welterweight victory.

Odds and Line Movement Analysis

Current Betting Odds

• Saygid Izagakhmaev: –360 (Favorite)
• Nicolas Dalby: +295 (Underdog)
• Best Sportsbook: BetOnline.ag

Oddsmakers clearly favor debutant Saygid Izagakhmaev as the early sharp money has driven his line to –360 at BetOnline.ag, making him the heavyweight favorite in this Welterweight showdown. By contrast, Nicolas Dalby sits at +295, attracting underdog bettors looking for a sizable payday if his veteran savvy pulls off an upset. With both fighters’ lines listed at BetOnline.ag, this sportsbook currently offers the most competitive odds on the market for this matchup.

Line Movement History

| Time (UTC) | Izagakhmaev Odds | Dalby Odds | |------------------------|------------------|------------| | 2025-11-12 18:19 | –360 | +295 | | 2025-11-12 18:29 | –400 | +330 | | 2025-11-13 09:29 | –360 | +295 |

• Early Action: Izagakhmaev opened at –360, while Dalby debuted at +295.
• Sharp Response: Within ten minutes, Izagakhmaev shortened to –400 as bettors piled on the Russian grappling phenom. Simultaneously, Dalby drifted out to +330, signaling reluctance among the public to back the 40-year-old Dane.
• Stabilization: By the following morning, both lines reverted to their original spots (–360/+295), suggesting the books balanced action on both sides or large contrarian wagers came in on Dalby.

These modest swings indicate early confidence in the favorite, followed by a pull-back that leaves both fighters’ odds essentially where they began. Watching for future line shifts—especially as weigh-ins and late money arrive—could unearth value on either side.

Payouts on a $1,000 Bet

• Betting $1,000 on Izagakhmaev at –360
  You would risk $1,000 to win approximately $277, for a total return of about $1,277 (stake + profit).

• Betting $1,000 on Dalby at +295
  A $1,000 wager would net you roughly $2,950 in profit, for a total payout of around $3,950 (stake + profit).

Implied Probabilities

• Izagakhmaev (–360): Roughly a 78% chance to win.
• Dalby (+295): Approximately a 25% chance to score the upset.

These probability figures reflect the betting market’s collective assessment of each fighter’s chances once vig—all the sportsbook’s built-in juice—is accounted for. While Izagakhmaev dominates on paper, Dalby’s veteran experience and proven chin offer an appealing contrarian play for bettors seeking high reward.

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Whether you’re riding with the overwhelming favorite or hunting an underdog windfall, BetOnline.ag currently provides the most advantageous lines for this Welterweight bout. Keep an eye on late shifts—especially after weigh-in day—when insider information or last-minute injuries can create significant value in either direction.