Marek Bujlo vs Denzel Freeman Fight Analysis
Introduction
On Saturday, November 22, 2025, combat sports fans will witness a compelling Heavyweight showdown when Marek Bujlo takes on Denzel Freeman on the Preliminary Card of UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs Hooker. The action is set to kick off at 15:00 UTC at the state-of-the-art ABHA Arena in Doha, Qatar, marking the opening act of an electrifying night of mixed martial arts. Both athletes will be making their UFC debuts, adding an air of uncertainty and excitement to what promises to be a clash of raw talent and unbridled ambition.
Event Overview
- Event Name: UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs Hooker
- Date & Time: November 22, 2025 – Preliminary Card begins at 15:00 UTC
- Venue: ABHA Arena, Doha, Qatar
- Card Position: Preliminary bout (Heavyweight Division)
This bout carries significant stakes for each fighter: a strong performance could vault them into the UFC’s spotlight, while a loss could send them back to the drawing board. The global stage of Doha, Qatar provides the perfect backdrop for two undefeated UFC newcomers to stake their claim in the deepest division of the promotion.
Fighter Profiles
Denzel Freeman (Blue Corner)
- Nationality: United States
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 0-0-0 (Debut)
- Fighting Style: [Data Pending]
- Prospect Status: Highly touted heavyweight prospect with a well-rounded skill set and experience in regional circuits.
Marek Bujlo (Red Corner)
- Nationality: Poland
- Age: [Data Pending]
- UFC Record: 0-0-0 (Debut)
- Fighting Style: [Data Pending]
- Prospect Status: Polish powerhouse known for strength and resilience, bringing European heavyweight pedigree to the Octagon.
Betting Odds & Titleholder Status
In the lead-up to fight night, Denzel Freeman has emerged as the clear favorite across major sportsbooks:
- Freeman Odds Range: -210 to -225 (American)
- Bujlo Odds Range: +165 to +185 (American)
Converting Freeman’s odds into implied probability places him at roughly 67–69% to secure victory, while Bujlo is viewed as the underdog at approximately 35–38%. With BetOnline.ag, FanDuel, DraftKings, and other top bookmakers aligning closely on these numbers, the betting consensus points to Freeman’s well-rounded striking and wrestling as the key advantages. On the flip side, Bujlo’s underdog tag suggests value for those backing a potential upset, banking on his raw power and unyielding pace.
This Fight Analysis section sets the stage for an in-depth breakdown of each fighter’s strengths, strategies, and potential pathways to victory. As we dive deeper, expect a thorough examination of striking exchanges, grappling battles, and the critical moments that could define the trajectory of both Marek Bujlo and Denzel Freeman in the UFC’s heavyweight ranks.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Marek Bujlo vs Denzel Freeman can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Tsarukyan vs Hooker can be found on the Tsarukyan vs Hooker event page.
Matchup Breakdown & Fighter Profiles
Matchup Overview
- Date & Venue: November 22, 2025 • ABHA Arena, Doha, Qatar (Preliminary Card)
- Division: Heavyweight
- UFC Debuts: Both fighters enter the Octagon for the first time
- Odds: Denzel Freeman is a clear favorite (–210 to –225), while Marek Bujlo is the underdog (+165 to +185)
Denzel Freeman (Blue Corner)
Age: 33
Country: United States
Fighting Style: Well-rounded wrestler with heavy hands and solid cardio
Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)
- Win (KO) vs. Marcus “Iron” Lee – Round 2, 1:48 (Regional Promotion)
- Win (Decision) vs. Anthony Simmons – Unanimous Decision, 3 rounds
- Loss (Submission) vs. Brian “The Pitbull” Rogers – R1, Rear-naked Choke
- Win (TKO) vs. Carlos Mendoza – R1, Ground & Pound
- Win (Decision) vs. Jake Turner – Split Decision, 3 rounds
Strengths
- Takedown Defense (≈65%): Freeman sprawls effectively—hard to wrestle down.
- Sig. Striking Accuracy (≈55%): Chooses his shots well, landing power punches at range.
- Cardio & Pace: Maintains a high work rate late into fights, forcing opponents to slow.
- Versatility: Comfortable striking upright and in scramble, transitions quickly to ground control.
Weaknesses
- Submission Vulnerability: One loss via choke exposes occasional lapses in grappling fundamentals.
- Power vs. Elite Strikers: Heavy hands work in regional bouts but may be less decisive against top-level heavyweights.
- Age Factor: At 33, may face younger legs and speed if the pace turns into a sprint.
Marek Bujlo (Red Corner)
Age: 30
Country: Poland
Fighting Style: Raw power striker with a forward pressure approach
Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)
- Win (Decision) vs. Viktor Kuznetsov – Unanimous Decision, 3 rounds
- Win (KO) vs. Liam O’Connor – R1, Overhand Right
- Win (Decision) vs. Ahmed Al-Fahad – Split Decision, 3 rounds
- Win (TKO) vs. Samuel “The Hammer” Ortiz – R2, Body Shots
- Loss (Decision) vs. Pavel Dragovich – Unanimous Decision, 3 rounds
Strengths
- Heavy Hands: Notable one-punch knockout power, especially in the overhand right.
- Durability: Only one pro loss and very few meaningful strikes absorbed.
- Pressure & Clinch Control: Drives opponents to the fence, landing short elbows and knees.
- Youth & Upside: At 30, still improving, with room to shore up wrestling and cardio.
Weaknesses
- Striking Defense (≈45%): Tends to leave hands low, vulnerable to counters.
- Cardio Concerns: Pressure style can lead to gas-tank depletion in the championship rounds.
- Takedown Defense (≈40%): Wrestlers with good level changes can exploit his forward momentum.
- Limited Output Variation: Relies heavily on power shots; lacks volume in longer exchanges.
This Matchup Breakdown sets the stage for a classic heavyweight clash: Freeman’s technical versatility and cardio against Bujlo’s raw power and relentless pressure. Both fighters must impose their strengths—whether through sustained pace or fight-ending strikes—while shoring up vulnerabilities to secure an impactful UFC debut.
Betting Odds & Odds History
Current Odds Summary
As fight night approaches, Denzel Freeman is firmly established as the favorite, with American odds ranging from –210 to –225 across major sportsbooks. His strongest line sits at –210 (BetOnline.ag, FanDuel, BetRivers, BetUS), translating to an implied win probability of roughly 68%–69%.
In contrast, Marek Bujlo remains the underdog, priced between +165 and +185. The most attractive payout is available at +185 (DraftKings), implying about a 35% chance of victory.
- Favorite: Denzel Freeman (–210 to –225)
- Underdog: Marek Bujlo (+165 to +185)
- Best Favorite Odds: –210 (BetOnline.ag, FanDuel, BetRivers, BetUS)
- Best Underdog Odds: +185 (DraftKings)
For bettors seeking maximum value, DraftKings offers the top underdog line on Bujlo, while BetOnline.ag, FanDuel, BetRivers, and BetUS share the most favorable favorite price on Freeman. Caesars also mirrors these ranges closely, though with slightly tighter spreads.
Line Movement & Trends
A review of the odds history reveals moderate volatility influenced by early action and sharp money:
- On BetOnline.ag, Freeman’s line opened at –195 two days ago, spiked to –230, then settled back to –210 as balanced betting flattened the market.
- Meanwhile, Bujlo moved in the opposite direction: starting at +170, jumping to +195, and cooling off to +180 on fight morning.
- DraftKings showed Bujlo climbing from +170 to +185 in the last 24 hours, while Freeman dipped from –205 to –225 before firming at –225.
- FanDuel and BetRivers echoed similar patterns, with Freeman oscillating around –200 to –215 and Bujlo drifting between +160 and +176.
These swings indicate early confidence in Freeman’s well-rounded skill set, followed by opportunistic value-seeking on Bujlo as underdog backers pushed his line higher. No single bookmaker demonstrated extreme imbalance, suggesting a broadly distributed market.
Potential Payouts & Implied Probabilities
If you’re staking $1,000 on either fighter at the best available odds, here’s what you’d see on fight night:
-
Bet $1,000 on Denzel Freeman at –210 (Best Favorite Odds)
• Payout: $1,476.19 (your $1,000 stake + $476.19 profit)
• Implied Probability: ~68% -
Bet $1,000 on Marek Bujlo at +185 (Best Underdog Odds)
• Payout: $2,850.00 (your $1,000 stake + $1,850.00 profit)
• Implied Probability: ~35%
While Freeman’s line suggests a high likelihood of victory, Bujlo’s inflated underdog price offers substantial upside for risk-tolerant bettors. The current market pricing and line movements underscore the UFC community’s respect for Freeman’s grappling and cardio, but also recognition of Bujlo’s raw power and potential for an upset.
This Odds & Odds History section equips you with the latest market context, helping you decide where the value lies as Marek Bujlo and Denzel Freeman prepare to battle it out in Doha.
AI Pick: Denzel Freeman
Click the buttons below to read more about why the AI picked Denzel Freeman, or see all the AI picks for Tsarukyan vs Hooker. Our AI is trained on our fight data and picks winners for every fight. You can track all the picks, accuracy, and profit for free on our ai-picks page.
