Reese vs McVey UFC Fight Analysis & Betting Odds

Zachary Reese vs Jackson McVey fight analysis

Fight Overview

On Saturday, November 8, 2025, rising contender Zachary Reese will square off against Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialist Jackson McVey at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. This catchweight showdown is slated to open the night’s preliminary card, with the bell expected to ring at approximately 2:00 PM PT (21:00 UTC). As part of UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs Brown, this bout promises fireworks and could set the tone for the rest of the evening.

Venue and Timing

• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
• Date: Saturday, November 8, 2025
• Scheduled Start: Preliminary card begins at 2:00 PM PT / 21:00 UTC
• Broadcast: Available on UFC Fight Pass and ESPN+

The Favorite: Zachary Reese

Zachary Reese enters this matchup as the clear favorite, listed around –300 on the major American sportsbooks. At 31 years old, Reese brings a seasoned résumé to the Octagon:

• Professional record of 9–2–0
• 5 victories by knockout, 2 by submission
• A striking accuracy of 54% and takedown prowess at 58%
• Average fight time of 5:20, reflecting his capacity to control three-round affairs

Since his UFC debut in December 2023, Reese has showcased well-rounded skills and a high fight IQ, blending crisp boxing with relentless pressure and a sturdy ground game. Although he suffered a recent setback against Sedriques Dumas, his unanimous decision win over Dusko Todorovic and highlight-reel first-round KO of Julian Marquez in 2024 underline his threat in every phase.

The Underdog: Jackson McVey

On the opposite corner, Jackson McVey arrives as the underdog at roughly +250, carrying a perfect first-round finish rate early in his UFC tenure. Key stats include:

• Professional mark of 6–1–0, with 100% of wins inside the opening round
• A balanced distribution of 3 knockouts and 3 submissions
• Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt credentials
• Average fight duration of just 3:35

McVey made an explosive impression during his June 2025 debut, but his lone defeat—via first-round submission to Brunno Ferreira—exposed some gaps in his defensive wrestling and striking defense (22%). Still, his finishing instincts and ground threat make him a dangerous foe for anyone, especially if he can dictate the pace early.

Why This Fight Matters

• Momentum Swing: A win for Reese reasserts his position as a future middleweight contender, potentially moving him closer to the top 15.
• Redemption Story: McVey aims to rebound from his first UFC loss and prove that his aggressive, finish-first style can overcome high-level opposition.
• Betting Angle: With Reese as a heavy favorite and McVey’s dynamic finish rate, this clash offers contrasting styles and compelling wagering opportunities.

Stay tuned as we break down striking exchanges, grappling battles, and key tactical matchups in our full fight breakdown. Whether you’re placing your first wager or fine-tuning an advanced parlay, this preliminary main event is one you won’t want to miss.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Zachary Reese vs Jackson McVey can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Bonfim vs Brown can be found on the Bonfim vs Brown event page.

Matchup Breakdown & Fighter Profiles

Zachary Reese: The Seasoned All-Rounder

Age: 31
Country: United States
Fighting Style: Well-rounded striker-wrestler

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights):

• Sep. 13, 2025 – Loss vs Sedriques Dumas (Could Not Continue, R1 0:51)
• May 31, 2025 – Win vs Dusko Todorovic (Decision – Unanimous)
• Jan. 18, 2025 – Loss vs Azamat Bekoev (KO/TKO, R1 3:04)
• Aug. 24, 2024 – Win vs Jose Daniel Medina (Decision – Unanimous)
• Jun. 8, 2024 – Win vs Julian Marquez (KO/TKO, R1 0:20)

Strengths:

• Striking Efficiency (54%): Reese lands over half of his significant strikes, showing sharp timing and precision.
• Wrestling & Grappling (58% TD Accuracy / 58% TD Defence): He mixes takedowns and top control seamlessly, making him dangerous both standing and on the mat.
• Cardio & Durability: With an average fight time of 5:20, he has shown he can maintain a high pace for all three rounds.

Weaknesses:

• Early-Round Vulnerability: Two of his last five outings ended in first-round stoppages, suggesting lapses in defense during initial exchanges.
• Striking Defense (45%): Opponents land more than half of their significant strikes on him, opening up counter-striking opportunities.

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Jackson McVey: The Finish-Oriented Specialist

Age: 26
Country: United States
Fighting Style: Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu

Recent Form:

• Jul. 19, 2025 – UFC Debut Loss vs Brunno Ferreira (Submission, R1 3:35)
• Pre-UFC – Undefeated 6-0 pro slate with all finishes in Round 1 (3 KOs, 3 Subs)

Strengths:

• Explosive Finisher: 100% of his victories come in the first round, reflecting elite speed and power.
• Submission Prowess: As a BJJ black belt, he boasts three career submission wins and is a constant threat once the fight hits the ground.
• Aggressive Pace: His fights average just 3:35, allowing little time for opponents to adjust.

Weaknesses:

• Striking Efficiency (27%) & Defense (22%): McVey lands barely one in four strikes and defends fewer than one in four attempts, leaving him open to combinations.
• Wrestling Deficit: He has yet to record a takedown or defend one in UFC competition, making him susceptible to strong wrestlers.
• Experience Gap: One UFC bout compared to Reese’s six means McVey may struggle with the Octagon’s unique pressures and pacing.

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Head-to-Head Considerations

• Pace vs. Precision: McVey will hunt a quick finish, but Reese’s precision striking and takedown ability could neutralize early aggression.
• Ground Exchange: If McVey drags the fight to the mat, his submission game poses a real danger—yet Reese’s takedown defense (58%) offers a sturdy countermeasure.
• Cardio & Adjustments: Should the fight escape the first frame, Reese’s superior gas tank and experience in three-rounders tilt the scales in his favor.

This clash of styles—Reese’s calculated pressure versus McVey’s sudden-death aggression—will define who seizes momentum on the preliminary card. Bet accordingly and watch for the fight’s pivotal early exchanges.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

• Zachary Reese (Favorite): -300
• Jackson McVey (Underdog): +250

As it stands, Reese is a hefty favorite, with bettors needing to risk $300 to win $100, while McVey offers a $250 payout on every $100 wagered. The gap of 550 points between -300 and +250 underscores the market’s confidence in Reese’s experience and well-rounded game, versus McVey’s explosive but untested UFC résumé.

Best Sportsbooks to Bet On

• For backing Reese, FanDuel currently offers the shortest juice at -295, meaning slightly better value on the favorite.
• For taking a flyer on McVey, BetOnline.ag and Bovada both list him at +250, the top underdog line available.

Line Movement & Market Trends

Examining the line history reveals significant early swings before settling in:

• Reese opened around -355 on BetOnline.ag, briefly shortened to -400, only to drift back to -270 within hours. Over the last 48 hours, it has stabilized in the -300 to -310 range.
• McVey began as a +290 underdog, dipped to +230 when initial bets flooded in, spiked to +330 on a quiet market evening, and ultimately found equilibrium at +250.

These fluctuations suggest sharp money early on both sides—Reese attracting big money cuts, McVey getting intermittent support from punters chasing an upset. Since opening week, the lines have tightened modestly, indicating balanced action and no single side dominating.

Payout Scenarios & Implied Chances

• A $1,000 wager on Zachary Reese at -300 would return $1,333 (your $1,000 stake plus $333 profit).
• A $1,000 wager on Jackson McVey at +250 would return $3,500 (your $1,000 stake plus $2,500 profit).

Based on the current odds, the implied probability of Reese winning sits around 75%, while McVey’s chances come in near 28%. Of course, these figures reflect the betting market’s sentiment, not guaranteed outcomes.

Value & Strategy

• Lean on Reese if you prioritize consistency and a strong three-round skill set—he’s trading at near the shortest line of the week, so any further juice drops would cut into value.
• Consider McVey only if you believe his first-round aggression and finishing instincts can exploit Reese’s early-round vulnerabilities. With no takedowns or submissions yet in UFC competition, McVey remains a high-risk, high-reward play.

As sharp money and public money continue to shape the lines, keep an eye on live odds shifts, especially in the final hours before the fight. Whether you lock in a solid favorite price or chase an underdog windfall, this clash offers clear options for every betting style.