Brito vs Baghdasaryan: UFC Odds & Analysis

Joanderson Brito vs Melsik Baghdasaryan fight analysis

Introduction

On December 14, 2025, fight fans will tune in to the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada, as the featherweight division heats up on the Preliminary Card of UFC Fight Night: Royval vs Kape. Scheduled to begin at 10:00 PM ET, the bout pits Brazil’s rising prospect Joanderson Brito (17-5-1) against Armenia’s knockout artist Melsik Baghdasaryan (8-3-0). While both fighters possess explosive finishes—Brito with ten first-round stoppages and Baghdasaryan with five knockouts—the stylistic clash promises to deliver fireworks from the opening bell. This matchup not only offers a glimpse at two dynamic featherweights on the cusp of contention but also presents a compelling betting narrative, with clear favorite and underdog designations influencing odds boards across major sportsbooks.

Fighters’ Profiles

Joanderson Brito, a 30-year-old striker hailing from Santa Helena, Brazil, enters the Octagon with a well‐rounded arsenal. Standing 6'0" with a 72" reach, he boasts a 68% takedown accuracy and seven submission victories—a testament to his ability to mix wrestling entries with slick jiu-jitsu. Despite recent back-to-back decision losses to Pat Sabatini and William Gomis, Brito’s average fight time of 8:42 and ability to impose pace make him a legitimate threat in both stand-up exchanges and ground scrambles. Since debuting in January 2022, he has demonstrated evolution in defensive striking, though his 43% significant strike defense indicates vulnerability against heavy hitters.

Melsik Baghdasaryan, the 33-year-old Armenian power puncher, counters with an aggressive approach and a 60% significant strike accuracy. Standing 5'9" with a 70" reach, he has recorded four first-round finishes and boasts a 73% takedown defense, effectively keeping fights upright where he thrives. Despite suffering a first-round TKO loss to Jean Silva in his most recent outing, Baghdasaryan remains dangerous on the feet, utilizing sharp combinations and explosive counters. His zero takedown attempts suggest a pure striking focus, raising questions about his ability to handle Brito’s wrestling pedigree.

Betting Outlook

The betting market has installed Joanderson Brito as the clear favorite, listed at -211 (BetOnline.ag), while Melsik Baghdasaryan sits as the underdog at +181. Brito’s edge in grappling and his more consistent output across three rounds justify these odds, yet Baghdasaryan’s knockout upside cannot be overlooked—especially given Brito’s moderate 50% striking accuracy and susceptibility to power shots. At these lines, bettors must weigh Brito’s favorable statistical matchup and finishing rate against Baghdasaryan’s one-punch knockout potential. Ultimately, this fight will test whether Brito can implement his wrestling blueprint or if Baghdasaryan’s striking prowess will turn the tables in a classic striker-versus-grappler showdown.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Joanderson Brito vs Melsik Baghdasaryan can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Royval vs Kape can be found on the Royval vs Kape event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Joanderson Brito Profile

Background

• Age: 30
• Country: Brazil (Santa Helena)
• Fighting Style: Striker with strong wrestling entries and submission chops
• UFC Debut: Jan. 15, 2022
• Physical Attributes: 6'0" height, 72" arm reach, 38" leg reach

Recent Form

Over his last five outings, Brito has gone 3-2:

• Win vs. Jack Shore (TKO – Doctor’s Stoppage, May 2024)
• Win vs. Jonathan Pearce (Submission, Nov. 2023)
• Win vs. Westin Wilson (KO/TKO, Jul. 2023)
• Loss vs. William Gomis (Decision – Split, Sep. 2024)
• Loss vs. Pat Sabatini (Decision – Unanimous, Apr. 2025)

Despite dropping his two most recent decisions, Brito displayed succession in mixing level changes, landing 68% of his takedown attempts and showcasing a dangerous top game.

Strengths & Weaknesses

Strengths:

• Elite grappling: 68% takedown accuracy and seven submission victories underscore his ability to dictate fight geography.
• Finishing instincts: Ten first-round finishes signal aggressive starts and fight-ending power.
• Pace & cardio: An average fight time of 8:42 reveals willingness to engage deep into the third round.

Weaknesses:

• Striking defense: Allows 57% of opponent’s significant strikes (43% defense), leaving him vulnerable to heavy punchers.
• Striking efficiency: 50% significant strike accuracy suggests he can be outlanded in pure stand-up exchanges.
• Recent decision losses: Two straight defeats by decision raise questions about adjustments mid-fight against tactically disciplined foes.

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Melsik Baghdasaryan Profile

Background

• Age: 33
• Country: Armenia
• Fighting Style: Pure MMA striker with knockout pedigree
• UFC Debut: Jul. 31, 2021
• Physical Attributes: 5'9" height, 70" arm reach, 39" leg reach

Recent Form

Baghdasaryan is 2-3 over his last five fights:

• Loss vs. Jean Silva (KO/TKO, Feb. 2025)
• Win vs. Tucker Lutz (Decision – Unanimous, Jul. 2023)
• Loss vs. Joshua Culibao (Submission, Feb. 2023)
• Win vs. Bruno Souza (Decision – Unanimous, Nov. 2021)
• Win vs. Collin Anglin (KO/TKO, Jul. 2021)

His most recent setback—a first-round TKO—exposed defensive holes but does little to overshadow four career first-round finishes.

Strengths & Weaknesses

Strengths:

• Striking accuracy: 60% significant strike accuracy indicates pinpoint timing and efficiency.
• Knockout power: Five career KOs and four first-round finishes mean he can end the fight at any moment.
• Striking defense: Defends 57% of incoming significant strikes, allowing him to counter effectively.

Weaknesses:

• Ground game: 0% takedown accuracy reflects a one-dimensional approach and no submission wins.
• Durability concerns: A recent first-round TKO loss underscores potential susceptibility to heavy leather.
• Average pace: An average fight time of 10:31 suggests he may gas if unable to secure early finishes.

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Head-to-Head Implications

This clash pits Brito’s grappling prowess and varied finishing arsenal against Baghdasaryan’s precision striking and knockout upside. Brito will look to exploit the Armenian’s lack of wrestling, shooting early takedowns and controlling grappling exchanges. Conversely, Baghdasaryan aims to keep the fight standing, capitalize on Brito’s 43% striking defense, and land fight-ending shots. The contrasting skill sets make this a classic striker-versus-grappler match, with each man’s strengths playing directly into the other’s vulnerabilities.

Betting Odds and Line Movement

Current Odds Overview

As of the latest update, Joanderson Brito is the betting favorite at -211, while Melsik Baghdasaryan carries underdog status at +181 on BetOnline.ag. The price gap between the two fighters—roughly 392 points in American odds—reflects the market’s confidence in Brito’s grappling and all‐around skill set against Baghdasaryan’s one‐punch knockout upside.

• Favorite: Joanderson Brito (-211)
• Underdog: Melsik Baghdasaryan (+181)
• Best Sportsbook: BetOnline.ag remains the top choice for both lines and liquidity in this matchup, offering competitive vig and swift payouts.

Line Movement Analysis

When the odds first went live on December 6, 2025, both fighters opened at similar levels—Brito around -215 and Baghdasaryan near +185. Since then, the lines have nudged slightly in Brito’s favor, settling at -211 for the Brazilian and +181 for the Armenian. No dramatic swings or “steam moves” have occurred, indicating a balanced flow of bets from sharps and casual bettors alike. That steady line suggests:

• Confidence in the favorite’s edge: Slight shift toward Brito as more bettors back his wrestling-heavy approach.
• Underdog value remains intact: Baghdasaryan still fetches attractive plus‐money odds, signaling respect for his finishing power.
• Market stability: Absence of late, large-scale wagers or news-driven volatility.

Payouts and Implied Probabilities

If you wager $1,000 on either fighter at these current odds, here’s what you stand to collect:

• Betting on Brito (-211): Total payout ≈ $1,473.93 (including your $1,000 stake)
• Betting on Baghdasaryan (+181): Total payout ≈ $2,810.00 (including your $1,000 stake)

Behind each line sits an implied probability of victory:

• Brito’s implied win chance: ~68%
• Baghdasaryan’s implied win chance: ~36%

Although those percentages exceed 100% when combined (due to the sportsbook’s built-in vig), they illustrate the risk/reward dynamic—favoring a smaller return on the presumed stronger fighter versus a larger payday if the underdog pulls off an upset.

Betting Strategy Takeaways

• Value on the underdog? At +181, Baghdasaryan appeals to bettors seeking high‐upside tickets, especially if you believe his striking defense and knockout prowess can neutralize Brito’s takedowns.
• Play it safe on the favorite? For conservative action, Brito at -211 offers a two‐thirds chance to win, per the market’s view, and can anchor a multi‐leg parlay.

No matter which side you back, BetOnline.ag provides the sharpest lines and reliable customer service for UFCFight Night: Royval vs Kape. Keep an eye on late scratches or injury updates, but as of now, these odds capture the consensus outlook: a competitive featherweight scrap with Brito as the steady hand and Baghdasaryan as the live underdog.