Borshchev vs Camilo UFC 322 Odds & Prediction

Viacheslav Borshchev vs Matheus Camilo fight analysis

Event Details

Get ready for a compelling lightweight showdown on Saturday, November 15, 2025, as the UFC makes its return to the historic Madison Square Garden in New York City. This bout is scheduled as part of the Early Preliminary Card for UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs Makhachev, with the opening bell set to ring at 7:00 PM ET (00:00 GMT). Both athletes tip the scales at 155 pounds, and each will be looking to break free from recent setbacks as they vie to climb the stacked lightweight ladder.

Fighter Profiles

• Matheus Camilo (Blue Corner)
  • Age: 24 (Rio Branco, Brazil)
  • Professional Record: 9-3-0
  • UFC Debut: May 17, 2025
  • Style: Well-rounded MMA
  • Key Stats: 48% significant strike accuracy, 67% takedown accuracy

• Viacheslav Borshchev (Red Corner)
  • Age: 33 (Volgograd, Russia)
  • Professional Record: 8-6-1
  • UFC Debut: Jan. 15, 2022
  • Style: Kickboxer with heavy hands
  • Key Stats: 54% significant strike accuracy, 57% strike defense

Betting Odds & Key Storylines

Entering this matchup, Matheus Camilo is the favorite across major sportsbooks, currently sitting around -160 in American odds. The Brazilian’s slick combination of striking and wrestling has impressed early in his UFC tenure, and bettors have rewarded his two-time takedown finisher ability. Camilo’s lone UFC appearance ended in a second-round submission loss to Gabe Green, but his well-rounded skill set and youth (24) make him an enticing pick for backers seeking a technical, positional fighter.

On the other side, Viacheslav Borshchev comes in as the underdog at approximately +135. The 33-year-old Russian kickboxer boasts six knockouts in his eight career wins and three first-round finishes—evidence of his explosive power and aggressive style. Despite back-to-back decision losses to Terrance McKinney and Tom Nolan, Borshchev’s striking volume (54% accuracy) and granite chin position him as a dangerous threat the moment he finds his range. Expect him to press forward, hunt for heavy hands, and look to test Camilo early.

Why This Fight Matters

• For Camilo, a victory means snapping a two-fight skid in the UFC and proving his wrestling exchanges can neutralize heavy hitters. With 67% takedown accuracy, he can control the pace and rack up top-control time, forcing Borshchev to fight off his back.
• For Borshchev, stopping a younger, more versatile opponent would resurrect his UFC trajectory and validate his potential as a late-replacement spoiler. His three first-round finishes suggest he’ll come out fast, trying to overwhelm Camilo before the grappling can develop.

As the early prelims roll around in the electric atmosphere of MSG, keep an eye on how both fighters handle the cage center. Will the Brazilian’s wrestling smother the Russian’s power, or will the veteran kickboxer land one big shot to alter the course of this pivotal lightweight contest? The stage is set—let’s see who seizes control.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Viacheslav Borshchev vs Matheus Camilo can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Della Maddalena vs Makhachev can be found on the Della Maddalena vs Makhachev event page.

Matchup & Fighter Profiles

Matheus Camilo – The Favored Brazilian

Age: 24 | Country: Brazil | Style: Well-rounded MMA striker/wrestler
Record: 9-3-0 (UFC 0-1-0) | First UFC Bout: May 17, 2025 (loss to Gabe Green)

Recent Form

Camilo burst onto the UFC scene with an impressive regional résumé, but stumbled in his Octagon debut:

• Loss vs. Gabe Green – Submission (R2, 3:43)
• Prior to UFC: Two consecutive finishes (one KO, one submission) on the Brazilian circuit
• Overall last 5: 4-1 with finishes by both strikes and grappling

Strengths

• Takedown Accuracy (67%) – Camilo converts two-thirds of his shots, allowing him to dictate where the fight goes.
• Significant Strike Defense (56%) – He avoids more than half of incoming strikes, showing solid head movement and footwork.
• Finishing Versatility – 4 KOs and 2 submissions in nine wins; he can adapt if his striking isn’t landing.

Weaknesses

• Early-Round Power – 0 first-round finishes so far; he often needs time to find his range.
• Untested Takedown Defense – 0% on paper suggests limited wrestling exchanges in MMA pro fights, leaving questions if he’ll struggle against heavy wrestlers.
• Pressure Handling – As a debutant, handling big-fight nerves at Madison Square Garden could be a factor.

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Viacheslav Borshchev – The Veteran Underdog

Age: 33 | Country: Russia | Style: Kickboxer with heavy hands
Record: 8-6-1 (UFC 2-4-1) | UFC Debut: Jan. 15, 2022

Recent Form

Borshchev’s UFC tenure has been a roller-coaster—he can blast opponents but has struggled to string together wins:

• Loss vs. Terrance McKinney – Decision (Jun. 28, 2025)
• Loss vs. Tom Nolan – Unanimous Decision (Feb. 8, 2025)
• Win vs. James Llontop – Split Decision (Aug. 24, 2024)
• Loss vs. Chase Hooper – Submission (May 11, 2024)
• Loss vs. Nazim Sadykhov – Majority Decision (Nov. 11, 2023)

Strengths

• Knockout Power – 6 KOs in 8 wins, including three first-round finishes; he can end a fight in seconds.
• Significant Strike Accuracy (54%) – Lands over half his power strikes, a high rate for lightweights.
• Strike Defense (57%) – Similar to Camilo, he neutralizes more than half of incoming big shots.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Defense (43%) – Opponents convert nearly half their takedowns, a glaring vulnerability against wrestlers.
• Wrestling Game (0% TD Accuracy) – He hasn’t scored a pro takedown, meaning he must keep this fight standing or get run over on the mat.
• Cardio & Decision Losses – Three straight decision defeats suggest cardio can fade or he struggles to close distance consistently in later rounds.

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Style Clash & Key Dynamics

• Striker vs. Striker-Wrestler: Borshchev wants to brawl early, lean on his one-punch KO upside, and avoid gritty scrambling. Camilo will probe with jabs, feints, and level changes—if he secures top control, he nullifies the Russian’s power.
• Pace & Pressure: Camilo’s superior grappling mix should allow him to slow the pace, force Borshchev to fight off his back, and rack up control time. Borshchev must land his big shots in the opening frame, or risk being marched down and worn out over three rounds.

This clash pits youth and grappling precision against veteran power and kicking variety—a stylistic puzzle that could swing on one takedown or one clean hook. Who imposes their game plan first will likely emerge victorious on this pivotal early prelim night at the Garden.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

As of the latest updates on November 12, 2025, the line across major sportsbooks firmly favors Matheus Camilo over Viacheslav Borshchev in this lightweight showdown:

• Matheus Camilo (Favorite):

  • Caesars: -160
  • BetOnline.ag: -146
  • FanDuel: -174
  • DraftKings: -148
  • BetMGM: -160
  • Bovada: -140

• Viacheslav Borshchev (Underdog):

  • Caesars: +135
  • BetOnline.ag: +126
  • FanDuel: +136
  • DraftKings: +124
  • BetMGM: +130
  • Bovada: +120

Camilo’s odds range from -140 (Bovada) to -174 (FanDuel), implying he’s roughly a 60–63% chance to win, while Borshchev’s +120 to +136 line suggests a 42–45% upset probability. The widest spread in odds is at FanDuel, where you can back Camilo at a steep -174 or grab Borshchev at +136.

Line Movement Analysis

Early betting action saw each fighter trade roles before settling on Camilo as the established favorite:

• Matheus Camilo:

  • Started on BetOnline.ag at +110 on Nov. 9 (early underdog), then rocketed to -180 within hours as sharp money poured in on his wrestling upside. In the final 24 hours, smart bettors trimmed that back to around -146, suggesting a slight edge remains for those expecting a grappling clinic.

• Viacheslav Borshchev:

  • Opened at -130 on BetOnline.ag, flipping to +155 the same day as early line setters overreacted to his knockout résumé. Consistent correction moved him back into the +120–+135 range, where he’s held steady into fight week.

This seesaw indicates two key dynamics:

1. Sharp money on Camilo’s ground game initially drove his odds down.
2. Public and contrarian money on Borshchev’s power strike potential forced sportsbooks to balance liability, narrowing his underdog line.

Best Sportsbook for Your Bet

• Favorite (Camilo): FanDuel at -174 offers the best price for a favorite backer seeking maximum value.
• Underdog (Borshchev): FanDuel at +136 is likewise the top line for those looking to ride the upset wave.

If you’re shopping lines, FanDuel provides the juiciest odds on both sides, making it the go-to sportsbook for this matchup.

Potential Payouts & Implied Probabilities

• $1,000 on Matheus Camilo at -160 (Caesars):

  • Payout: $1,000 returns $1,625 (your $1,000 stake + $625 profit)
  • Implied Chance: ~62%

• $1,000 on Viacheslav Borshchev at +135 (Caesars):

  • Payout: $1,000 returns $2,350 (your $1,000 stake + $1,350 profit)
  • Implied Chance: ~42%

While Camilo is the safer play on paper, Borshchev’s knockout power and value at +135 make him an enticing target for underdog enthusiasts. Whether you lean into the grappling specialist or bet on the veteran puncher, understanding these odds and their movement is key to making an informed wager this fight week.