Winner: Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev
Confidence Score: 87Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev holds a significant advantage in this matchup due to several key factors. First, he is an undefeated 24-year-old prospect with a perfect 7-0 record, demonstrating both knockout (3 KOs) and submission (3 subs) ability, and a remarkable 5 first-round finishes, indicating strong finishing instincts and explosiveness. Statistically, his significant strike accuracy (89%) and defense (67%) are elite, and his 100% takedown defense shows excellent grappling awareness. He also possesses a 2-inch reach advantage, which is crucial at Light Heavyweight. In contrast, Rafael Cerqueira is on a three-fight losing streak, with two recent first-round KO/TKO losses, suggesting declining durability and confidence. Cerqueira's takedown defense (40%) and significant strike defense (37%) are well below division averages, making him vulnerable to both striking and grappling threats. Historically, young, undefeated fighters with Yakhyaev's profile and statistical dominance have a high win rate against older, struggling opponents with similar physical and technical disadvantages. The stylistic, physical, and momentum factors all favor Yakhyaev strongly.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev vs Rafael Cerqueira can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Tsarukyan vs Hooker can be found on the Tsarukyan vs Hooker event page.
