Waldo Cortes Acosta vs Shamil Gaziev fight analysis
Introduction
The heavyweight clash between Waldo Cortes-Acosta and Shamil Gaziev is set to ignite the ABHA Arena in Doha, Qatar, on Saturday, November 22, 2025. As part of the Main Card of UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs Hooker, this bout is scheduled to begin at 18:00 UTC and will be broadcast live worldwide. Both competitors come in with explosive power, contrasting styles and significant stakes in the heavyweight division rankings.
Event Details
- Date: Saturday, November 22, 2025
- Venue: ABHA Arena, Doha, Qatar
- Event: UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs Hooker (Main Card)
The Favorite vs. The Underdog
Waldo Cortes-Acosta enters as the -140 favorite (opening around -130, dipping to as short as -150 at various sportsbooks). The 34-year-old Dominican striker currently sits at #6 in the UFC heavyweight rankings, boasting a professional record of 15–2–0 with 7 knockouts and 1 submission victory. Standing 6'4" with a 70" reach and a 50% takedown accuracy, Cortes-Acosta brings a technical striking arsenal and emerging power that has flattened opponents early—four first-round finishes attest to his stopping ability.
On the other flank, Shamil Gaziev lines up as the +110 underdog (opening near +125, tightening to +110–+118 on major books). The 35-year-old Dagestani-born fighter, ranked #11, carries a 14–1–0 record, including 9 knockouts and 3 submissions. Gaziev’s style blends high-octane striking (48% significant strike accuracy) with a respectable 30% takedown success rate and elite 83% takedown defense. After suffering his first UFC loss to Jairzinho Rozenstruik in March 2024, Gaziev has reeled off two straight knockout victories, each under a round and change, proving he remains an unorthodox nightmare for any heavyweight.
Stakes & Significance
This matchup carries major implications for the heavyweight title picture. A win for Cortes-Acosta could vault him into genuine top-five contention, especially after avenging his late-round loss to Sergei Pavlovich back in August 2025 proved he can hang with the division’s elite. Conversely, Gaziev aims to resurrect his rapid ascent following the Rozenstruik setback; a victory here would not only avenge his only professional defeat but push him perilously close to the coveted top-8 cutoff.
As the betting markets lean toward Cortes-Acosta, the underdog Gaziev offers value for bettors enticed by his finishing instincts and grappling defense. Expect a tactical chess match peppered with explosive exchanges—this UFC Doha heavyweight showdown promises fireworks from the opening bell.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Waldo Cortes Acosta vs Shamil Gaziev can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Tsarukyan vs Hooker can be found on the Tsarukyan vs Hooker event page.
Matchup Breakdown & Fighter Profiles
Waldo Cortes-Acosta: The Dominican Striker
Age: 34
Country: Dominican Republic
Fighting Style: Striker
Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)
- Nov. 1, 2025 – Win vs. Ante Delija (KO/TKO R1, 3:59)
- Aug. 23, 2025 – Loss vs. Sergei Pavlovich (Decision – Unanimous, 3 × 5:00)
- June 7, 2025 – Win vs. Serghei Spivac (Decision – Unanimous, 3 × 5:00)
- March 15, 2025 – Win vs. Ryan Spann (KO/TKO R2, 4:48)
- May 11, 2024 – Win vs. Robelis Despaigne (Decision – Unanimous, 3 × 5:00)
Cortes-Acosta has won four of his last five, bouncing back from his only 2025 defeat to Pavlovich with an emphatic first-round stoppage of Delija. His durability has been tested—he’s proven he can go the distance against heavy hitters and still pull off knockouts in later rounds.
Strengths
- Striking Defense (55%): Above-average significant strike defense helps him avoid prolonged exchanges.
- Takedown Offense (50%): Converts one in two takedown attempts, allowing him to dictate where the fight goes.
- Cardio & Endurance: A 12:09 average fight time shows he can maintain output past the first round.
- Experience vs. Top Contenders: Wins over Spann and Spivac display his ability to neutralize diverse striking styles.
Weaknesses
- Significant Strike Accuracy (48%): He lands under half his attempted strikes, which may enable a counter-puncher to capitalize.
- Takedown Defense (71%): While respectable, an elite wrestler might exploit the 29% of takedowns he concedes.
- Finish Rate: Only 4 first-round finishes in 15 wins—he can be slower to put opponents away if they weather the early storm.
Shamil Gaziev: The Dagestani Powerhouse
Age: 35
Country: Bahrain (Khunzakh, Dagestan, Russia)
Fighting Style: MMA All-Rounder
Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)
- Feb. 1, 2025 – Win vs. Thomas Petersen (KO/TKO R1, 3:12)
- Aug. 3, 2024 – Win vs. Dontale Mayes (Decision – Unanimous, 3 × 5:00)
- March 2, 2024 – Loss vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik (KO/TKO R4, 5:00)
- Dec. 16, 2023 – Win vs. Martin Buday (KO/TKO R2, 0:56)
- (Additional non-UFC bouts) – …
Gaziev has gone 3–1 in the UFC, his lone defeat to Rozenstruik ending his streak of finishes but also serving as a learning experience. Since then, two straight knockouts show he remains a dangerous power puncher.
Strengths
- Knockout Power (9 KOs): Pays opponents no respect—9 of 14 wins end via strikes.
- First-Round Finishes (9): An explosive starter who often ends fights before they develop.
- Takedown Defense (83%): Elite level—limits grapplers’ success and keeps the fight standing.
- Balanced Striking (48% accuracy): Comparable to Cortes-Acosta, but coupled with power it magnifies impact.
Weaknesses
- Takedown Offense (30%): Relatively low conversion rate if he chooses to mix in wrestling.
- Significant Strike Defense (45%): Surrenders over half incoming strikes, which could be exploited by a pressure striker.
- Cardio in Extended Fights: An average fight length of 9:21 suggests he’s less tested in championship-round pacing.
- Experience Gap in Deep Waters: Only 4 fights through the fourth round; may struggle in late-fight adjustments.
Head-to-Head Dynamics: Cortes-Acosta’s takedown offense and high-level striking defense will be tested by Gaziev’s one-punch power and velocity. Conversely, Gaziev must guard against Cortes-Acosta’s wrestling and mid-range counters. Each fighter’s contrasting strengths and relative vulnerabilities—Cortes-Acosta’s precision grappling vs. Gaziev’s finishing instinct—set the stage for a classic striker-vs. all-rounder heavyweight brawl.
Odds Overview & Betting History
Current Betting Odds
-
Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Favorite)
• BetMGM: -135
• DraftKings: -135
• Bovada: -145
• FanDuel: -134 ← Best price on the favorite
• Caesars: -140
• BetOnline.ag: -149
• BetRivers: -150 -
Shamil Gaziev (Underdog)
• BetMGM: +110
• DraftKings: +114
• Bovada: +125
• FanDuel: +114
• Caesars: +118
• BetRivers: +120
• BetOnline.ag: +129 ← Best price on the underdog
Line Differential: Cortes-Acosta’s odds sit around -140 while Gaziev’s float near +115. That gap implies the market gives Cortes-Acosta roughly a 57% chance to win vs. Gaziev’s 47% (implied probabilities).
Line Movement & Market Sentiment
-
Gaziev’s Odds have steadily shortened over the past 48 hours.
• Opened around +125 / +130 across major books.
• Sharply improved to +110 at BetMGM and FanDuel, and +118 at Caesars by early fight day.
This drift toward shorter underdog odds suggests heavy backing on Gaziev or a lack of confidence in Cortes-Acosta’s late-fight cardio. -
Cortes-Acosta’s Odds have also ticked—though less dramatically—in his favor.
• Early lines hovered around -130 to -135.
• Pushed out to -145 at Bovada and -150 at BetRivers midweek, before softening back to -134 at FanDuel.
This two-way movement shows a tug-of-war among bettors, but overall the favorite remains firmly in demand.
Best Sportsbook for Value
- Underdog Play: BetOnline.ag (+129 on Gaziev)
If you’re hunting for the juiciest underdog price, this is the standout number. - Favorite Play: FanDuel (-134 on Cortes-Acosta)
Among heavy favorites, -134 is the softest “minus” line and offers the best return on your stake.
Potential Payouts & Implied Probabilities
-
Betting $1,000 on Gaziev at +129
• Payout: $2,290 total ($1,290 profit + $1,000 stake)
• Implied Win Probability: Approximately 43% -
Betting $1,000 on Cortes-Acosta at -134
• Payout: $1,746 total ($746 profit + $1,000 stake)
• Implied Win Probability: Approximately 57%
What It All Means
- The underdog line has tightened significantly, signaling smart money or sharp action on Gaziev.
- The favorite, Cortes-Acosta, saw his odds widen out midweek before softening back—indicative of late incoming bets.
- If you believe Gaziev’s power and improved takedown defense will frustrate and ultimately KO Cortes-Acosta, the +129 at BetOnline.ag offers top value.
- Conversely, if you trust the Dominican striker’s wrestling and cardio to grind out the win, -134 at FanDuel is the best “minus” line on the board.
Whichever path you choose, be sure to shop around: razor-thin moves in these lines can deliver extra profit on a $1,000 wager. Good luck!
AI Pick: Waldo Cortes Acosta
Click the buttons below to read more about why the AI picked Waldo Cortes Acosta, or see all the AI picks for Tsarukyan vs Hooker. Our AI is trained on our fight data and picks winners for every fight. You can track all the picks, accuracy, and profit for free on our ai-picks page.
