Winner: Justin Gaethje
Confidence Score: 85Justin Gaethje has a significant edge in striking power, experience, and defensive metrics. He owns 20 KO wins, a 59% significant strike accuracy, and a 52% strike defense, all superior to Paddy Pimblett's 7 KOs, 54% accuracy, and 42% defense. Gaethje's takedown defense (68%) is also considerably higher than Pimblett's (50%), making it difficult for Pimblett to impose his grappling game. While Pimblett has a strong submission record, Gaethje has never been submitted in the UFC and has consistently faced and beaten elite competition. Historically, fighters with Gaethje's profile—high KO rate, elite striking accuracy, and strong takedown defense—have a high win rate against submission specialists with lower strike defense at the title level. Additionally, Gaethje's recent form and durability against top-tier opponents further support his advantage in this matchup.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Gaethje vs Pimblett can be found on the Gaethje vs Pimblett event page.
