Winner: Kayla Harrison
Confidence Score: 60This is a razor-close matchup between two elite, physically similar, and highly accomplished fighters. Kayla Harrison brings an Olympic judo pedigree, undefeated takedown defense (100%), and a submission-heavy arsenal, which is a style that has historically given strikers trouble in title fights. Her significant strike defense (66%) and accuracy (62%) are both elite, and her average fight time suggests she can go deep into championship rounds. Amanda Nunes, while the greatest women's MMA fighter ever, is now 35 and coming out of retirement. She has elite takedown defense (82%) and power (13 KOs), but fighters returning from retirement have historically underperformed compared to active title holders. The edge goes slightly to Harrison due to her grappling style, current form, and the tendency for high-level judokas with strong defense to edge out aging strikers in similar title matchups. However, the pick is with moderate confidence given Nunes' championship experience and proven five-round ability.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Kayla Harrison vs Amanda Nunes can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Gaethje vs Pimblett can be found on the Gaethje vs Pimblett event page.
