Cortes-Acosta vs Lewis Odds, Analysis & AI Pick

Waldo Cortes Acosta vs Derrick Lewis fight analysis

Introduction

On Sunday, January 25, 2026, fight fans will descend upon the legendary T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV, for UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett. As the clock strikes 10:00 p.m. local time (2:00 a.m. ET), the Main Card action kicks off with a heavyweight clash that has bettors buzzing: #5-ranked Waldo Cortes-Acosta takes on former interim title challenger #8-ranked Derrick Lewis. This bout pits the disciplined, well-rounded striker from the Dominican Republic against the American knockout artist known for his one-punch power—and a penchant for spectacular finishes.

Las Vegas needs no introduction; it’s the fight capital of the world, a city that has hosted countless historic UFC events. Now, with the bright lights of the Strip shining down on T-Mobile Arena, Cortes-Acosta and Lewis will battle for pride, divisional momentum, and a potential shot at the heavyweight belt later this year.

Odds and Betting Landscape

Heading into fight week, the sportsbooks have made the calculus clear:

• Favorite: Waldo Cortes-Acosta sits comfortably as a -300 favorite across major books (Caesars, Bovada, BetMGM), reflecting his dominant run—16 wins and just 2 losses, including two first-round knockouts in his last three outings.
• Underdog: Derrick Lewis is a +240 underdog, according to Caesars, FanDuel, DraftKings, and others. Despite a career record of 29–12, Lewis’s recent form—two knockout victories in his last three fights and a history of finishing 24 opponents by strikes—makes him a thrilling long-shot wager.

This odds disparity underscores the stylistic matchup: Cortes-Acosta excels in accuracy (48% significant strike accuracy), takedown offense (50% TD accuracy), and defense (73% takedown defense), while Lewis relies on raw power, a 51% striking accuracy, and the confidence that any punch he throws could end the night.

What’s at Stake

For Cortes-Acosta, a win over a household name like Derrick Lewis would cement his status as a top‐contender and keep him on the shortlist for a title eliminator. He’s riding high after back‐to‐back highlight‐reel knockouts, showcasing improved wrestling and cardio—key attributes against a veteran like Lewis.

Lewis, at 40 years old, is fighting for more than just redemption. He’s fighting to prove he still belongs in the heavyweight spotlight. A victory here would be one of the biggest of his storied career and could set up a blockbuster match against one of the division’s elite.

Conclusion

When the cage door closes on January 25, every second will matter. Will the young, precise striking and grappling of Waldo Cortes-Acosta overwhelm the seasoned power of Derrick Lewis? Or will “The Black Beast” land one of his trademark bombs and send the crowd into a frenzy? Tune into UFC 324 at T-Mobile Arena to find out—and stay tuned to UFCBetCompanion.com for in‐depth breakdowns, live odds updates, and expert pick analysis.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Waldo Cortes Acosta vs Derrick Lewis can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Gaethje vs Pimblett can be found on the Gaethje vs Pimblett event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Waldo Cortes-Acosta: Profile & Recent Form

Age: 34
Country: Dominican Republic
Fighting Style: Striker (Muay Thai background)
UFC Record: 16–2–0, with eight career knockouts and one submission

Waldo Cortes-Acosta has stormed into the UFC’s top five with a blend of precise striking and gritty takedown defense. After his debut in October 2022, he has amassed five finishes in his last eight fights. His most recent five outings:

• Nov. 22, 2025: Win vs. Shamil Gaziev – KO/TKO (R1, 1:22)
• Nov. 1, 2025: Win vs. Ante Delija – KO/TKO (R1, 3:59)
• Aug. 23, 2025: Loss vs. Sergei Pavlovich – Decision (Unanimous)
• June 7, 2025: Win vs. Serghei Spivac – Decision (Unanimous)
• March 15, 2025: Win vs. Ryan Spann – KO/TKO (R2, 4:48)

Cortes-Acosta’s back‐to‐back first‐round knockouts over Gaziev and Delija showcase his refined timing and ability to hurt bigger men early. His lone setback to Pavlovich came via unanimous decision; he absorbed power shots while failing to impose his wrestling. Overall, his well‐rounded striking and improved ground defense have made him an ascending threat in the heavyweight pack.

Derrick Lewis: Profile & Recent Form

Age: 40
Country: United States
Fighting Style: Brawler (Heavy hands, counter-striker)
UFC Record: 29–12–0, with 24 knockout victories

“The Black Beast” remains one of the division’s most feared punchers. His last five bouts:

• July 12, 2025: Win vs. Tallison Teixeira – KO/TKO (R1, 0:35)
• May 11, 2024: Win vs. Rodrigo Nascimento – KO/TKO (R3, 0:49)
• Nov. 4, 2023: Loss vs. Jailton Almeida – Decision (Unanimous)
• July 29, 2023: Win vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima – KO/TKO (R1, 0:33)
• Feb. 5, 2023: Loss vs. Serghei Spivac – Submission (R1, 3:05)

Lewis has alternated between highlight‐reel knockouts and setbacks. His two most recent victories came in explosive fashion, but his losses underscore lapses in cardio and vulnerability off his back. Despite being 40, his power remains lethal—there’s always a chance one right hand ends the fight instantly.

Tale of the Tape: Strengths & Weaknesses

| Statistic | Cortes-Acosta | Lewis | |-------------------------|--------------------------|------------------------| | Significant Strike Accuracy | 48% | 51% | | Significant Strike Defense | 56% | 41% | | Takedown Accuracy | 50% | 26% | | Takedown Defense | 73% | 53% | | Average Fight Time | 10:34 | 8:52 |

Waldo Cortes-Acosta

• Strengths:
  • Elite takedown defense (73%) frustrates wrestlers.
  • Solid strike defense (56%) and high fight IQ allow him to avoid heavy shots.
  • Mixes early power with cardio to maintain pressure into later rounds.
• Weaknesses:
  • Moderate knockout rate—relies on accumulation rather than one-punch power.
  • Can be overpowered if he fails to establish range against heavy hitters.

Derrick Lewis

• Strengths:
  • Devastating one-punch knockout power; 24 KOs in 29 wins.
  • High significant strike accuracy (51%) means his punches land clean.
  • Experience against top-level competition gives him composure in chaos.
• Weaknesses:
  • Poor strike defense (41%) leaves him open to counters and combinations.
  • Low takedown offense (26%) – he cannot keep grapplers honest.
  • Cardio issues: past fights show fading output in later rounds.

Matchup Analysis

This clash boils down to precision and pace vs. brute power. Cortes-Acosta’s ability to defend takedowns and weather storms will be critical against Lewis’s knockout threat. If Waldo can drag Lewis into deep waters—forcing prolonged striking exchanges or mixing in level changes—he can neutralize the Black Beast’s power. Conversely, if Lewis connects early with his patented looping right hand, the technical edge may vanish in an instant. Bettors should weigh Cortes-Acosta’s consistency and defense against Lewis’s ever-present volatility.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Odds Snapshot

As of fight week, Waldo Cortes-Acosta is installed as the clear favorite while Derrick Lewis sits firmly on the underdog side:

• Waldo Cortes-Acosta
  • Caesars, Bovada, BetMGM: –300
  • BetRivers: –305
  • DraftKings: –310
  • BetOnline.ag: –320
  • FanDuel: –330

• Derrick Lewis
  • Caesars, FanDuel, BetMGM: +240
  • Bovada, DraftKings: +250
  • BetRivers: +235
  • BetOnline.ag: +270

Across the board, Cortes-Acosta is priced around –310, implying he enters as a roughly 75% favorite. Lewis’s line centers near +245, implying about a 29% chance of victory.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

• If you’re backing Lewis, the standout is BetOnline.ag at +270—that’s significantly richer than the +235/+240 elsewhere.
• For Cortes-Acosta supporters, the softest line is –300 (Caesars, Bovada, BetMGM), giving you the highest return on the favorite.

Line Movement & Market Reaction

Since the bout was announced, both fighters’ lines have seen notable swings:

• Derrick Lewis oscillated between +235 and +260 on Bovada in late December, reflecting wavering confidence as bettors weighed his aging power against Cortes-Acosta’s momentum.
• On DraftKings, Lewis crept from +245 on December 26 to +250 in early January, then dipped back to +240, suggesting money was coming in on Cortes-Acosta at midweek.
• Waldo Cortes-Acosta began as a –285 favorite on Bovada (Dec. 25), sharpened out to –320 by Dec. 26, then eased into –300 by Jan. 11. This peak at –320 represented the sharpest confidence in his victory, before smart money trimmed the line back.
• BetOnline.ag offered Cortes-Acosta as low as –280 on Jan. 2 before moving to –320, highlighting significant early bets on the Dominican striker.

Overall, the markets have ping-ponged in response to public backing of Cortes-Acosta’s recent knockouts and Lewis’s reputation for last-second finishes. The most dramatic swing was Bovada’s +235 to +260 on Lewis, paralleled by Cortes-Acosta’s –285 to –320 shift.

Hypothetical $1,000 Bet & Payouts

• Betting $1,000 on Derrick Lewis at +270 would return $3,700 total (your $1,000 stake plus $2,700 profit).
• Betting $1,000 on Waldo Cortes-Acosta at –300 would return $1,333 total (your $1,000 stake plus $333 profit).

These payouts underscore the classic favorite/underdog dynamic: a sizable win on Lewis delivers a life-changing payday, while Cortes-Acosta backers lock in a safer—but smaller—return.

What This Means for Bettors

• Value Play: If you believe Lewis still packs a title-caliber punch, +270 on BetOnline.ag is the sharpest underdog price.
• Bankroll Protection: For risk-averse bettors, the –300 line on Caesars or Bovada gives the strongest cushion on the favorite.
• Swing Watch: Keep an eye on any last-minute line moves—if Cortes-Acosta drifts back toward –330, it may signal public doubt and yield a spot-value opportunity.

With over a 70-point gap between them, this heavyweight showdown is shaping up as a textbook favorite vs. underdog scenario—perfect for contrasting bankroll strategies at UFC 324.