Winner: Umar Nurmagomedov
Confidence Score: 80Umar Nurmagomedov has significant statistical and stylistic advantages over Deiveson Figueiredo in this bantamweight matchup. Umar is younger (29 vs 37), which is a key factor given the historical decline in win rates for fighters over 35 in lower weight classes. He has superior defensive metrics (61% significant strike defense vs 49%, 79% takedown defense vs 57%), and his offensive wrestling (48% takedown accuracy) will challenge Figueiredo, who has shown vulnerability against elite grapplers. Umar's reach and size advantages (1 inch arm and leg reach) further bolster his edge. Figueiredo is dangerous with his power and submissions but has shown slowing output and less durability at bantamweight, especially against top-tier, relentless wrestlers. Recent form and trends in similar matchups (younger, more defensively sound Dagestani wrestlers vs aging, aggressive strikers) strongly favor Umar. Barring a flash finish from Figueiredo, Nurmagomedov's pace, control, and ability to neutralize danger positions make him the clear pick.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Umar Nurmagomedov vs Deiveson Figueiredo can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Gaethje vs Pimblett can be found on the Gaethje vs Pimblett event page.
