Winner: Ateba Gautier
Confidence Score: 85Ateba Gautier is a dynamic young striker with exceptional finishing ability, as shown by his 8 knockouts in 9 wins and 7 first-round finishes. He boasts a significant reach advantage (81" arm, 44" leg) over Pulyaev (78.5" arm, 41.5" leg), which is a key factor in striking battles at middleweight. His striking accuracy (61%) and defense (53%) are both superior to Pulyaev's (60% accuracy, 48% defense), and Gautier's average fight time (3:51) shows he is highly efficient at ending fights quickly. He has also demonstrated elite takedown defense (92%) and perfect takedown accuracy (100%), making him hard to control or surprise on the ground. Historically, younger, longer, high-output strikers with this kind of finishing rate and defensive metrics have a strong win rate in UFC middleweight matchups against more well-rounded, less explosive opponents. Pulyaev is a solid, durable fighter but has shown lower takedown accuracy (17%) and less defensive prowess, making him susceptible to Gautier's power and pressure. All data points and recent trends suggest Gautier is the clear favorite in this stylistic matchup.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Ateba Gautier vs Andrey Pulyaev can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Gaethje vs Pimblett can be found on the Gaethje vs Pimblett event page.
