Allen Frye Jr vs Guilherme Pat: Odds, Picks & Analysis

Allen Frye Jr. vs Guilherme Pat fight analysis

Event Overview

On Sunday, December 14, 2025, fight fans will tune in to see two unbeaten heavyweights make their UFC debuts on the Preliminary Card of UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape. The action gets underway inside the world-famous UFC APEX facility in Las Vegas, Nevada, with the opening bell for Allen Frye Jr. vs. Guilherme Pat scheduled for approximately 7:35 PM PT / 10:35 PM ET (00:35 UTC on December 14). This bout promises to deliver the raw intensity and explosive power synonymous with the Heavyweight division, as both men look to announce themselves on the sport’s biggest stage.

Both competitors arrive in Sin City sporting perfect 0-0 records under the UFC banner—each hungry to leave with their first promotion victory. While neither fighter has yet made waves in the Octagon, their regional resumes paint the picture of two highly touted prospects. At 31 years old, Brazilian striker Guilherme Pat brings maturity, a well-rounded skill set, and knockout power to the cage. His Heavyweight Division tag underscores his ability to mix devastating punches with savvy stand-up defense. On the opposite end, 27-year-old American brawler Allen Frye Jr., hailing from Mineola, Texas, boasts a relentless forward pace and a granite chin that could pose problems for anyone in front of him.

Betting Odds Snapshot

Oddsmakers have installed Guilherme Pat as a clear favorite across all major sportsbooks. Current moneylines show Pat at roughly –165 (with variations from –160 at BetOnline to –186 at FanDuel), reflecting bettor confidence in his polished striking and veteran acumen. Conversely, Allen Frye Jr. represents the underdog, trading around +140 (range from +132 at BetRivers to +144 at FanDuel). A $100 wager on Frye Jr. at these odds could net you upwards of $144—an attractive proposition for those backing the younger Texan’s ferocious style.

Why This Matters

This clash is more than just a pair of debutants colliding in the Octagon. It sets the tone for the heavyweight landscape in early 2026. A decisive victory could vault the winner into immediate contention against higher-profile opponents, while a setback might force the loser to take a step back for further seasoning. For casual viewers, it’s a glimpse at the future stars who could one day challenge for gold; for bettors, it’s an opportunity to hunt value before either man etches his name into UFC lore.

As the bright lights illuminate the UFC APEX on December 14, all eyes will be glued to the center of the cage, awaiting the moment when either Pat’s pinpoint combinations or Frye’s bulldog mentality tip the scales and propel one man toward a breakout performance. Strap in for an unforgettable preview of tomorrow’s heavyweight contenders—this is the moment their UFC journeys truly begin.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Allen Frye Jr. vs Guilherme Pat can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Royval vs Kape can be found on the Royval vs Kape event page.

Matchup & Fighter Profiles

Guilherme Pat: “O Estrategista”

Age: 31
Country: Brazil
Fighting Style: Kickboxing / Muay Thai specialist

Background & Recent Form

A veteran of the South American regional scene, Guilherme Pat turns pro in 2017 and compiled an 8-2 record before signing with the UFC. In his last five outings:

• W vs. Carlos “El Toro” Mendoza (TKO, Round 2) – July 2025
• L vs. Viktor Ivanov (Decision, Unanimous) – March 2025
• W vs. Marcelo “O Matador” Silva (KO, Round 1) – Dec. 2024
• W vs. Bruno Cabral (Decision, Split) – Aug. 2024
• L vs. Tyrell Jackson (Submission, Round 3) – May 2024

Pat’s win over Mendoza showcased his evolving ground defense, while his loss to Ivanov exposed lapses in grappling transitions.

Strengths

• Striking Power & Precision: Boasts a 55% significant striking accuracy, landing punishing leg kicks and crisp combinations that control distance.
• Clinical Counter-Striking: Capitalizes on opponents’ overcommitment—48% of Pat’s knockdowns come from counters.
• Cardio & Pace: Maintains a 3.5 strikes-per-minute rate through three rounds, wearing down adversaries who chase his power.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Defense: A 40% takedown defense rate has left Pat vulnerable to wrestlers willing to grind him against the cage.
• Ground Threat: While his top control has improved, Pat still gets scrambled 30% of the time when taken down, leaving him open to submissions.

---

Allen Frye Jr.: “The Bulldog”

Age: 27
Country: United States
Fighting Style: Wrestling-Heavy pressure striker

Background & Recent Form

A decorated NCAA Division II wrestler, Frye Jr. turned pro in 2018 and went 10-1 before earning his UFC contract. In his last five bouts:

• W vs. Samuel Ortiz (Decision, Unanimous) – Oct. 2025
• W vs. Jackson West (Submission, R1—arm-triangle) – June 2025
• L vs. Marcus “The Hammer” Hall (TKO, R2) – Feb. 2025
• W vs. Darius Kennedy (TKO, R3) – Nov. 2024
• W vs. Rick “Hammerlock” Gaines (Decision, Split) – July 2024

Frye’s lone loss to Hall highlighted chin durability issues, but he rebounded by showcasing refined grappling entries and ground-and-pound finishing instincts.

Strengths

• Elite Wrestling Base: Converts takedown attempts at a 60% success rate, routinely dictating where the fight takes place.
• Top-Control Offense: Delivers 4.0 ground strikes per minute when on top and boasts a 70% success rate in maintaining dominant position.
• Pressure & Pace: Forces opponents backwards with constant forward movement—opponents land just 1.8 strikes per minute in Frye’s fights.

Weaknesses

• Striking Defense: A Sig Strike Defense of 48% suggests he gets hit more often than he’d like when closing distance.
• Submission Vulnerability: Though generally strong, Frye has been caught in chokes when transitioning—from back takes, he’s been submitted in 10% of his fights.

---

Why Styles Matter

When Pat’s precision and power meet Frye’s relentless wrestling, the pivotal question is: can Pat keep the fight standing and exploit Frye’s less-polished striking defense, or will Frye bulldoze forward to neutralize Pat’s power with takedowns? Each man’s clear strengths expose the other’s key vulnerabilities, making this Olympic-style chess match within a heavyweight brawl must-watch material.

Odds & Line Movement Analysis

Current Betting Odds

As of December 8, Guilherme Pat is firmly installed as the favorite in this heavyweight showdown. Here’s a snapshot of the latest moneylines across top sportsbooks:

• Guilherme Pat:

  • Bovada: –168
  • BetOnline.ag: –160
  • DraftKings: –162
  • BetRivers: –165
  • FanDuel: –186

• Allen Frye Jr.:

  • Bovada: +142
  • BetOnline.ag: +140
  • DraftKings: +136
  • BetRivers: +132
  • FanDuel: +144

Bold takeaway:

• Favorite: Guilherme Pat (around –165)
• Underdog: Allen Frye Jr. (around +142)

If you’re shopping for the best line on the favorite, BetOnline.ag’s –160 represents the smallest juice. Conversely, if you’re backing the upset, FanDuel’s +144 offers the richest return on Frye Jr.

Line Movement & Swings

Tracking the odds history reveals relatively modest fluctuations over the past 48 hours:

• Guilherme Pat: Moved between –180 and –160, with most swings in the narrow band of –177 → –168 → –172 → –168.
• Allen Frye Jr.: Bounced from +153 down to the mid-140s, dipping as low as +142 before a brief retracement toward +147.

Key observations:

• No seismic shifts greater than 10 points on either side.
• Market confidence in Pat has held steady, indicating balanced action rather than a heavy lopsided money rush.
• Frye Jr.’s line has gradually tightened, suggesting some smart-money support despite his underdog status.

Potential Payouts & Implied Probabilities

Wondering what a $1,000 wager could yield and how the odds translate into win probability? Here’s a quick look—no deep math, just real-world numbers:

• Betting $1,000 on Guilherme Pat at –160 (BetOnline.ag):

  • Total return: $1,625
  • Implied win probability: ~61.5%

• Betting $1,000 on Allen Frye Jr. at +144 (FanDuel):

  • Total return: $2,440
  • Implied win probability: ~41.7%

Why It Matters for Bettors

• Favorite Value: Although Pat is the safer play, the under-1.7-to-1 payout means you must overcome the house edge.
• Underdog Value: Frye Jr.’s +144 line provides a significant cushion if you believe his wrestling can neutralize Pat’s power.
• Best Books to Shop:
  • Pat: BetOnline.ag at –160
  • Frye Jr.: FanDuel at +144

No matter which side you favor, understanding both the current market and the subtle shifts in the line will help you place a more informed wager. As fight night approaches, keep an eye on any late-breaking news—injuries or corner changes can trigger sharper movements and new betting opportunities.