Kaan Ofli vs Yizha fight breakdown
Introduction
The featherweight clash between Kaan Ofli and Yi Zha kicks off the Early Preliminary Card of UFC 325 on Sunday, February 1, 2026, at Qudos Bank Arena in the heart of Sydney Olympic Park, New South Wales, Australia. Scheduled as the first bout under the bright lights of one of the world’s premier MMA venues, this 145-pound showdown is set to begin at approximately 10:15 AM AEDT, marking the official start of a stacked fight night headlined by Alexander Volkanovski vs. Rafael Lopes.
This matchup pits the 28-year-old Chinese striker Yi Zha (26-5-0) against the 32-year-old Australian freestyle specialist Kaan Ofli (13-4-1). With a combined 39 finishes between them—19 by knockout and 20 by submission—fans can expect dynamic action right from the opening bell. As the crowd files into Qudos Bank Arena on a summer morning Down Under, the contrasting styles and career trajectories of these two featherweights will be on vivid display.
Yi Zha, entering as the odds-on favorite (ranging from –195 to –250 across major sportsbooks), has quickly become known for his high-octane striking and relentless pace. Boasting a 46% significant strike accuracy and a 48% defense rate, Zha has demonstrated a knack for landing heavy shots while evading return fire. His 13 submission victories further underline a well-rounded game poised to press both standing and on the canvas. Zha’s last outing saw him dispatch Westin Wilson via first-round TKO in just 37 seconds, reinforcing his status as the fighter to beat in this contest.
On the other side, Kaan Ofli arrives as the underdog (+155 to +195 across leading books) but carries momentum of his own. The Melbourne native has secured six of his 13 wins by submission and holds a respectable 46% strike accuracy complimented by an impressive 61% strike defense. Ofli’s takedown offense is modest at 14%, yet his opportunistic grappling has finished seven fights in Round 1, showcasing his ability to capitalize on openings swiftly. His most recent victory came via first-round arm-triangle choke over former contender Ricardo Ramos, proving he can impose his game plan against fellow top-level featherweights.
This early bout offers a fascinating stylistic puzzle: Zha’s forward pressure and finishing instincts versus Ofli’s counter-striking and submission savvy. Both athletes are making adjustments in camp—Zha working on takedown entries to diversify his attack, and Ofli sharpening his striking combinations to stay off the mat under relentless pressure. With neither fighter shying away from risk, the opening minutes of this fight are likely to set the tone: a high-volume striking exchange, wrestling scrambles, or a sudden submission attempt could decide the outcome before the end of Round 1.
As the UFC 325 broadcast goes live, keep an eye on the Kaan Ofli vs Yi Zha opener to gauge the momentum for the rest of the card. Whether you side with the favorite’s well-rounded aggression or the underdog’s crafty grappling, this fight promises to deliver the fast-paced drama that makes UFC prelims must-watch television.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Kaan Ofli vs Yizha can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Volkanovski vs Lopes can be found on the Volkanovski vs Lopes event page.
Matchup and Fighter Profiles
Yi Zha: The Chinese Striker
Age: 28
Hometown: Aba, Sichuan, China
Fighting Style: Striker
Record: 26-5-0
– 7 wins by KO/TKO
– 13 wins by submission
– 16 first-round finishes
Recent Form
- Aug. 23, 2025: Win (KO/TKO) vs. Westin Wilson – 1st round, 0:37
- Sep. 7, 2024: Loss (Unanimous Decision) vs. Gabriel Santos – 3 rounds
- Feb. 5, 2023: Loss (Split Decision) vs. Jeongyeong Lee – 3 rounds
Zha enters off a devastating 37-second first-round stoppage, snapping a two-fight skid on the judges’ scorecards. His aggressive pacing and finishing instincts have resurfaced, making him a dangerous early-round threat.
Strengths
- Striking Volume & Accuracy: 46% significant strike accuracy, landing 3.75 strikes per minute.
- Finishing Instincts: 16 first-round finishes demonstrate killer instinct.
- Submission Savvy: 13 career subs; works well off the clinch and in scrambles.
Weaknesses
- Defense Under Fire: 48% significant strike defense, susceptible to high-output wrestlers.
- Takedown Defense: 54%—solid but can be neutralized by a strong grappler.
- Average Fight Time: 8:33, indicating a tendency to get into firefights rather than drag opponents into deep waters.
Kaan Ofli: The Australian Underdog
Age: 32
Hometown: Melbourne, Australia
Fighting Style: Freestyle
Record: 13-4-1
– 2 wins by KO/TKO
– 6 wins by submission
– 7 first-round finishes
Recent Form
- Oct. 11, 2025: Win (Submission) vs. Ricardo Ramos – 1st round, 3:02
- Feb. 1, 2025: Loss (Unanimous Decision) vs. Muhammad Naimov – 3 rounds
- Aug. 24, 2024: Loss (KO/TKO) vs. Mairon Santos Alves – 2nd round, 1:30
Ofli rebounded from a pair of tough losses by securing an early arm-triangle choke over Ricardo Ramos. His momentum hinges on blending striking and opportunistic grappling to keep opponents guessing.
Strengths
- Strike Defense: 61% significant strike defense, one of the best in the division.
- Submission Threat: 46% of wins by submission; seven first-round submissions show quick-chain grappling.
- High First-Round Finishing Rate: Over 50% of career wins come before Round 2.
Weaknesses
- Takedown Offense: 14% accuracy, struggles to impose wrestling on elite strikers.
- Striking Output: 46% accuracy but only 2.5 strikes landed per minute, limiting volume exchanges.
- Age & Durability: At 32, may slow against younger, high-pace opponents and weaker chin evidenced by KO loss to Alves.
Styles Make Fights
This featherweight clash hinges on Zha’s forward-pressure striking versus Ofli’s counter-striking and submission transitions. Zha will look to overwhelm early with leg kicks and heavy hands, while Ofli aims to weather the storm, drag the fight to the mat, and capitalize on grappling openings. Statistically, Zha must watch for Ofli’s takedown attempts—even at a modest 14% rate—and avoid overcommitting in striking exchanges, where his defense can be tested. Conversely, Ofli must push pace enough to neutralize Zha’s finishing bursts and avoid prolonged stand-up battles. Expect a chess match of feints, level changes, and sudden finishes as these two contrasting profiles collide under the Sydney lights.
Odds and Betting Trends
Current Betting Odds
As of January 19, 2026, Yi Zha is the clear favorite and Kaan Ofli the underdog in this featherweight tilt:
-
Yi Zha (Favorite)
- Caesars: –220
- BetMGM: –250
- BetRivers: –195 ← best value on Zha
- DraftKings: –205
- Bovada: –215
- BetOnline.ag: –230
- FanDuel: –210
-
Kaan Ofli (Underdog)
- Caesars: +165
- BetMGM: +185
- BetRivers: +155
- DraftKings: +170
- Bovada: +178
- BetOnline.ag: +195 ← best value on Ofli
- FanDuel: +162
The gap between –220 (Caesars) and +165 (Caesars) underscores Zha’s perceived 2-to-1 advantage. If you’re siding with the favorite, BetRivers’ –195 offers the smallest risk per dollar; if backing the upset, BetOnline.ag’s +195 yields the largest payday.
Line Movement & Swing Analysis
Monitoring the line movement reveals significant early action on Zha:
- At Caesars, Zha opened around –190 on Jan. 10 and drifted to –220 by Jan. 19.
- BetMGM jumped quickly to –250 on Jan. 19 after limited earlier pricing.
- DraftKings saw Zha move from –185 to a peak of –218 before settling at –205.
These shifts indicate sharp money flowing toward Zha, driving sportsbooks to lengthen his price. For Ofli, the opposite drift reflects general market sentiment:
- BetOnline.ag offered Ofli at +160 on Jan. 10 and moved to +210 by Jan. 15 before settling at +195.
- DraftKings shifted from +154 to +180 and back to +170.
The most notable swing was the –185 to –250 move on Zha at BetOnline.ag, a clear sign of heavy backing for the Chinese striker. Meanwhile, Ofli’s biggest swing at the same book (+160 to +210) suggests contrarian bettors chasing value.
Hypothetical $1,000 Bet & Implied Chances
- Betting $1,000 on Yi Zha at –220 returns approximately $1,454 (your $1,000 stake plus ~$454 profit).
- Betting $1,000 on Kaan Ofli at +195 returns approximately $2,950 (your $1,000 stake plus ~$1,950 profit).
Based on those odds, Zha carries roughly a 70% chance to win, while Ofli sits near 38%—highlighting why Zha is a heavy favorite and why Ofli’s backers chase the larger, less likely payout.
Best Books & Betting Strategy
- For favorites, shop around: BetRivers (–195) offers the least juice on Zha.
- For underdogs, lock in BetOnline.ag (+195) to maximize payout on Ofli.
Whether you believe in Zha’s relentless finishing or Ofli’s gritty counter-game, understanding line movement and hunting the sharpest odds is crucial. Use these trends to identify value before the opening bell in Sydney.
AI Pick: Yizha
Click the buttons below to read more about why the AI picked Yizha, or see all the AI picks for Volkanovski vs Lopes. Our AI is trained on our fight data and picks winners for every fight. You can track all the picks, accuracy, and profit for free on our ai-picks page.
