Tai Tuivasa vs Tallison Teixeira Fight Analysis
Introduction
Saturday, February 1, 2026, marks one of the most electrifying Heavyweight clashes on the UFC 325 main card when Australia’s own Tai Tuivasa (#12 in the division) meets Brazil’s rising slugger Tallison Teixeira (#15) at the world-class Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney Olympic Park, New South Wales. As fight night begins, this bout is slated for the second or third slot on the main card—following the co-main events and preceding the headliner of Alexander Volkanovski vs. Rafael Lopes.
The scheduled bell-to-bell start time is 2:00 AM UTC on February 1 (which corresponds to approximately 1:00 PM AEDT in Sydney), with the televised main card kicking off around 6:00 PM local time. Fans tuning in globally will see two knockout artists collide in a high-voltage showdown: Tuivasa, the momentum-driven Aussie, versus Teixeira, the undefeated Brazilian with a perfect 8-0 UFC stoppage record.
The Favorite and the Underdog
Tallison Teixeira enters as the clear favorite across all major books. He’s sitting as low as –340 (FanDuel) and averaging around –310 to –320 on Caesars, BetMGM, DraftKings and others. At just 25 years old, he has quickly made waves by stopping every opponent inside the Octagon—seven by strikes, one by submission—carving out a reputation as a first-round finisher with 100% opening-round stoppage rate. His tenacity and power, combined with an 83-inch reach, make him a serious threat from range.
On the other side, Tai Tuivasa is the underdog, priced as high as +250 (FanDuel) and generally +230 to +240 elsewhere. Boasting a 15–8 pro record with 14 knockouts, Tuivasa is known for his “Shoey” celebrations almost as much as his brutal striking. At 32, he brings veteran savvy and a granite chin to the cage, but has struggled in recent high-level matchups—dropping four of his last five to top-15 opposition. Still, his 75-inch reach and heavy hands mean he can change the course of any fight with a single blast.
What’s at Stake
– For Teixeira, an upset victory over a UFC veteran in Tuivasa would cement his status as a true contender in the Top 10 and potentially fast-track a matchup with another established name.
– For Tuivasa, bouncing back in front of his home crowd is critical to re-establish momentum, snap his skid, and stay relevant in a loaded Heavyweight division.
With both fighters boasting knockout-first mindsets, expect a fireworks-filled opening frame. The contrast in styles—Teixeira’s precision power striking and relentless forward pressure versus Tuivasa’s wild, heavy‐handed brawling—sets the stage for a potential barnburner. Whether you’re backing the blue-corner Brazilian favorite or riding with the red-corner Aussie underdog, this fight promises high drama from bell to bell.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Tai Tuivasa vs Tallison Teixeira can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Volkanovski vs Lopes can be found on the Volkanovski vs Lopes event page.
Matchup Breakdown & Fighter Profiles
Tai Tuivasa
Background
- Age: 32
- Country: Australia
- Fighting Style: Heavy-handed striker / brawler
- Physical Attributes: 6’2” (74”), 265 lb, 75” reach
A UFC veteran since 2017, “Bam Bam” Tai Tuivasa has built a reputation on raw power and knockout artistry. With a pro record of 15-8-0 and 14 career knockouts, he thrives in brawl-style exchanges, hunting finishes early but has shown vulnerability against high-level counterstrikers and grapplers.
Recent Form
Tuivasa enters off a five-fight skid against Top 15 competition:
- Loss vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik – Split decision (3 rounds)
- Loss vs. Marcin Tybura – Submission (R1, 4:08)
- Loss vs. Alexander Volkov – Submission (R2, 4:37)
- Loss vs. Sergei Pavlovich – KO/TKO (R1, 0:54)
- Loss vs. Ciryl Gane – KO/TKO (R3, 4:23)
He hasn’t tasted victory since late 2021, and inconsistency in defense and cardio have emerged as red flags.
Strengths & Weaknesses
Strengths
- Explosive Power: 14 KOs in 23 bouts, including 12 first-round stoppages
- Takedown Defense: 58%—few opponents have taken him down
- Experience: 8 years in UFC, accustomed to big-stage pressure
Weaknesses
- Striking Defense: 44% significant strike defense—prone to absorbing high volume
- Submission Defense: Two recent submission losses highlight ground game holes
- Cardio & Durability: Late-round susceptibility, four stoppage losses in last five
Tallison Teixeira
Background
- Age: 25
- Country: Brazil
- Fighting Style: Precision striker / knockout artist
- Physical Attributes: 6’7” (79”), 259 lb, 83” reach
A rising force in the division, Teixeira made a statement in his UFC debut by stopping Justin Tafa in 35 seconds. Blessed with height, range and heavy hands, he combines technical striking with hammer-fist finishing instincts.
Recent Form
In two UFC appearances, he sits at 1-1:
- Win vs. Justin Tafa – KO/TKO (R1, 0:35)
- Loss vs. Derrick Lewis – KO/TKO (R1, 0:35)
His lone defeat to Lewis underscores his willingness to trade in power exchanges; however, his straight right and leg kick arsenal remain dangerous.
Strengths & Weaknesses
Strengths
- Striking Accuracy: 60% significant strike accuracy—elite precision
- Defense: 56% significant strike defense—solid head movement and footwork
- First-Round Finisher: All eight UFC wins by stoppage, average fight time 1:02
- Reach & Height: 83” reach gives him control of distance
Weaknesses
- Ground Game: 0% takedown offense/defense suggests no wrestling or jiu-jitsu pedigree
- Chin under Heavy Fire: Loss to Lewis shows vulnerability when out-muscled
- Experience: Only three professional losses, one in UFC; still developing fight-IQ under duress
Head-to-Head Dynamics
This clash pits experience vs. momentum, wider chassis vs. Aussie grit. Tuivasa’s power and veteran savvy against Teixeira’s precision, reach and finishing acumen make this a stylistic crossroads. The winner will either halt Tuivasa’s skid with a statement or announce Teixeira as the next heavyweight contender to fear.
Betting Odds & Line Movement Analysis
Current Odds Overview
- Tallison Teixeira (Favorite): Ranging from –260 (BetOnline.ag) to –340 (FanDuel), with most books sitting around –310 to –325.
- Tai Tuivasa (Underdog): Between +220 (BetOnline.ag) and +250 (FanDuel), with +230 to +240 available at Caesars, BetMGM, Bovada, and DraftKings.
The underdog in this matchup is Tai Tuivasa, while Tallison Teixeira carries the favorite tag. If you’re backing the blue-corner Brazilian, your best bet is at BetOnline.ag where he’s priced at –260. For Aussie fans siding with Tuivasa, FanDuel offers his juiciest underdog line at +250.
Odds History & Line Movement
Tallison Teixeira
- Opened around –300 at BetOnline.ag on Jan. 14, briefly eased to –275 and –250 on Jan. 18, then settled back around –255 by Jan. 19.
- Across other books, his line has fluctuated modestly from –305 to –340, reflecting consistent action on his finishes.
Tai Tuivasa
- Debuted at +250 on BetOnline.ag (Jan. 14) then dipped to +235 on Jan. 18 as early bets came in.
- Dropped further to +210 midday on Jan. 18 before rebounding to +215 by Jan. 19—showing sharp money on the Aussie underdog.
- Other sportsbooks have largely held him between +230 and +240, indicating parallel interest but less aggressive line shifts.
The most significant swings occurred on BetOnline.ag for both fighters: Teixeira’s line moved about 50 cents on the dollar (–300 to –250), while Tuivasa saw a 40-cent swing (+250 to +210), suggesting early sharp money on both sides before stabilization.
Potential Payouts & Implied Probabilities
- $1,000 on Tallison Teixeira at –260 (BetOnline.ag): You’d profit $384.62, returning $1,384.62 total.
- $1,000 on Tai Tuivasa at +250 (FanDuel): You’d net $2,500, returning $3,500 total.
Based on current lines, Teixeira carries an implied chance of roughly 75% to win, while Tuivasa sits at about 29%.
Best Sportsbook Recommendations
- Favorite (Teixeira): BetOnline.ag at –260, offering the strongest underdog line among favorites.
- Underdog (Tuivasa): FanDuel at +250, maximizes your upside if the Aussie shocks the Brazilian.
Whether you back the young knockout artist or the crowd-favourite brawler, understanding line history and where the sharp money lies can give you an edge. Monitor live line moves as fight night approaches—momentum can shift quickly in the heavyweight division.
AI Pick: Tai Tuivasa
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