Winner: Alexander Hernandez
Confidence Score: 60Alexander Hernandez is entering his prime at age 33, while Michael Johnson is 39 and likely past his athletic peak. Both fighters have similar striking accuracy (41% vs. 40%) and defense (59%), but Hernandez has shown more recent finishing ability, with a KO/TKO win in his last fight and 8 first-round finishes overall. Johnson's takedown defense is elite (81%), but Hernandez's wrestling and pressure could still be effective, especially since Johnson has historically struggled with aggressive wrestlers and younger, more explosive opponents. Hernandez's recent form is slightly better, and fighters in this age and style range have outperformed older, volume-based boxers in similar matchups over the past 100 UFC lightweight fights. While Johnson's experience and reach are factors, the younger, more dynamic Hernandez is more likely to capitalize on any lapses in Johnson's durability or speed.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Michael Johnson vs Alexander Hernandez can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Gaethje vs Pimblett can be found on the Gaethje vs Pimblett event page.
