Winner: Alex Perez
Confidence Score: 67Alex Perez has a strong stylistic edge in this matchup due to his significant wrestling and grappling advantage. He boasts a 48% takedown accuracy and 75% takedown defense, both of which are substantially higher than Charles Johnson's 21% takedown accuracy and 67% defense. Perez is also more experienced, with a longer UFC tenure and a history of first-round finishes (10), indicating strong finishing ability early. While Johnson has a reach advantage and slightly higher striking accuracy, Perez's significant strike defense (59%) and ability to dictate where the fight takes place give him the edge. Historically, fighters with Perez's wrestling-heavy profile and similar age/reach metrics have outperformed more volume-based strikers like Johnson in the flyweight division. Additionally, Perez has consistently faced and beaten higher-ranked competition, and his recent form, despite some losses, shows resilience against top-tier opposition. Unless Johnson can keep the fight at range and outwork Perez on the feet, the stylistic and statistical trends favor Perez to control and win the fight, likely by decision or late finish.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Alex Perez vs Charles Johnson can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Gaethje vs Pimblett can be found on the Gaethje vs Pimblett event page.
