Josh Hokit vs Denzel Freeman: UFC 324 Odds & AI Pick

Josh Hokit vs Denzel Freeman fight analysis

Event Overview

Mark your calendars for Saturday, January 24, 2026, when the heavyweight division returns to the Octagon on the Early Preliminary Card of UFC 324: Gaethje vs Pimblett. The bout is scheduled to begin at approximately 10:00 PM ET, live from the iconic T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. This undercard clash pits two undefeated prospects—Josh Hokit (7-0-0) and Denzel Freeman (7-1-0)—against one another in what promises to be a dynamic display of wrestling, striking, and raw power.

Fighters to Watch

• Josh Hokit (Red Corner)
  • Record: 7-0-0 (4 KOs, 3 submissions)
  • Age: 27 | Height: 6'1" (73") | Reach: 6'1.5" (73.5")
  • UFC Debut: Nov. 8, 2025
  • Fighting Style: Wrestling

• Denzel Freeman (Blue Corner)
  • Record: 7-1-0 (0 KOs, 0 submissions)
  • Age: 34 | Height: 6'1" (73") | Reach: 6'5" (77")
  • UFC Debut: Nov. 22, 2025
  • Fighting Style: Wrestler

Both athletes have made impressive first impressions inside the Octagon. Hokit wasted no time in announcing himself as a force to be reckoned with, finishing five of his seven UFC wins in the opening round and averaging a brisk 3:31 fight time. Meanwhile, Freeman showcased remarkable endurance and conservative precision, dragging his lone MMA defeat-free record to a unanimous decision victory over Marek Bujlo and posting a stellar 62% significant strike accuracy despite being one of the quieter power threats in the division.

The Favorite and The Underdog

On paper, Josh Hokit enters this matchup as the clear betting favorite, with American oddsmakers offering lines around -230 to -275 across top sportsbooks (BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars). His well-rounded attack—combining four knockouts, three submissions, and slick wrestling—has investors feeling confident that he can extend his perfect record to 8-0.

Conversely, Denzel Freeman arrives as the underdog, priced between +168 and +205. Despite his lack of stoppage wins, Freeman’s iron chin, disciplined counter-striking, and defensive grappling (61% sig-strike defense) make him a dangerous dark horse. Bettors looking for value may be tempted to back the veteran’s measured pace and proven cardio against Hokit’s aggressive approach.

This fight not only serves as a pivotal test for two ascending heavyweights but also carries important implications for the division’s pecking order. A win for Hokit could vault him into early contender discussions, while an upset by Freeman would instantly boost his stock and set the heavyweight scene alight. As we count down to UFC 324, this matchup stands out as a potential fight-night thriller on the road to the title.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Josh Hokit vs Denzel Freeman can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Gaethje vs Pimblett can be found on the Gaethje vs Pimblett event page.

Matchup Breakdown & Fighter Profiles

Josh Hokit – The Rising Wrestling Finisher

Age: 27
Country: United States
Fighting Style: Wrestling / Ground & Pound

A true prodigy in the heavyweight ranks, Josh Hokit exploded onto the UFC scene at just 27 years old. Since turning pro, he has amassed a perfect 7-0 record, with 4 knockouts and 3 submissions—all showcasing his dominant wrestling base and relentless ground-and-pound. Hokit’s UFC debut on November 8, 2025 saw him dispatch Max Gimenis via TKO in 56 seconds, and he’s followed that up by finishing five of his seven career victories in the very first round.

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

• UFC 324 Prelims (Jan. 24, 2026): vs. Denzel Freeman – Upcoming
• UFC Debut (Nov. 8, 2025): KO/TKO win vs. Max Gimenis (R1, 0:56)
• Regional Circuit #7: Submission win (R1)
• Regional Circuit #6: KO/TKO win (R1)
• Regional Circuit #5: Submission win (R2)

Strengths

• Finishing Instinct: 5 first-round stoppages in 7 wins; average fight time just 3:31.
• Striking Accuracy: Lands 69% of significant strikes, overwhelming opponents early.
• Takedown Proficiency: Converts 46% of takedown attempts, ensuring top control and ground damage.

Weaknesses

• Defense Under Fire: Absorbs 43% of opponents’ significant strikes (only 57% defense).
• Cardio in Deep Waters: Has yet to test championship-caliber cardio—just one fight beyond Round 1 and no wins past Round 2 inside the UFC.
• Predictable Path: Heavy reliance on wrestling may become easier to game-plan against experienced strikers.

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Denzel Freeman – The Durable Technician

Age: 34
Country: United States
Fighting Style: Wrestling / Counter-Striking

Veteran underdog Denzel Freeman brings a measured approach to the Octagon. With a 7-1 pro record and a flawless defensive track record, he relies on wrestling to dictate pace, then racks up strikes with pinpoint accuracy. Freeman made his UFC debut on November 22, 2025, earning a unanimous decision over Marek Bujlo after three hard-fought rounds. Though he’s never recorded a finish in the UFC, his 61% significant strike defense and rock-solid chin have carried him through every slate of takedown attempts.

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

• UFC 324 Prelims (Jan. 24, 2026): vs. Josh Hokit – Upcoming
• UFC Debut (Nov. 22, 2025): Decision win vs. Marek Bujlo (UD, 3 Rds)
• Regional Circuit #8: Decision win (UD, 3 Rds)
• Regional Circuit #7: Decision win (SD, 3 Rds)
• Regional Circuit #6: Loss via decision (SD, 3 Rds)

Strengths

• Defensive Mastery: Successfully defends 61% of incoming significant strikes, neutralizing power punchers.
• Striking Precision: Lands 62% of significant strikes attempted—among the highest in his division.
• Cardio & Durability: Never finished in pro MMA; average fight time of 15:00 speaks to his stamina.

Weaknesses

• Lack of Finishing Power: Zero career knockouts or submissions inside the UFC; his fights go to the scorecards.
• Offensive Grappling: 0% takedown accuracy—struggles to translate wrestling into control on the mat.
• Advanced Competition: Hasn’t faced a high-level finisher; vulnerability when forced off his back or under relentless pressure.

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This clash of contrasting styles—Hokit’s aggressive takedowns and explosive finishes versus Freeman’s iron-clad defense and technical output—sets the stage for a heavyweight showdown that could define each man’s trajectory in the division. Will Hokit steamroll another opponent in the opening minutes, or can Freeman weather the storm, drag the fight into deep water, and snatch a decision? The answers await on January 24th at T-Mobile Arena.

Odds & Line Movement Analysis

Current Betting Odds

As we approach UFC 324, the oddsmakers have made Josh Hokit the clear favorite and Denzel Freeman the underdog in this heavyweight showdown. Here’s a snapshot of the best available lines across major sportsbooks:

• Josh Hokit (Favorite)
  • FanDuel: −220
  • BetOnline.ag: −230
  • DraftKings: −245
  • Caesars: −250
  • BetMGM: −275
  • Bovada: −235
  • BetRivers: −240

• Denzel Freeman (Underdog)
  • Caesars: +205
  • DraftKings: +200
  • BetOnline.ag: +195
  • Bovada: +195
  • BetMGM: +195
  • BetRivers: +188
  • FanDuel: +168

Difference & Best Books
Hokit’s price ranges from −220 to −275, with FanDuel’s −220 offering the highest return for a favorite bet. Conversely, Freeman is priced between +168 and +205, and Caesars’ +205 stands out as the best line for underdog backers.

Line Movement & Market Reaction

Tracking the line movement over the past few weeks reveals that early money has heavily favored Hokit:

• Josh Hokit opened around −218 on DraftKings back in late December. As of January 12, that line has shifted south to −245, a move of nearly 30 cents. Caesars moved Hokit from −225 to −250, indicating sustained sharp action.
• Denzel Freeman began the pre-fight window around +180 on most books. He’s now climbing toward +200–+205 at DraftKings and Caesars—a +20 to +25 swing that mirrors Hokit’s tightening line.

These swings suggest bettors are pouring cash on Hokit’s wrestling pedigree and finishing prowess, while the underdog price for Freeman has ticked upward to attract value seekers.

Payout Scenarios & Implied Chances

If you’re laying down $1,000 on fight night, here’s what you’d stand to collect:

• Bet $1,000 on Josh Hokit at −220 (FanDuel)
  • Profit: ~$455
  • Total Payout: ~$1,455

• Bet $1,000 on Denzel Freeman at +205 (Caesars)
  • Profit: $2,050
  • Total Payout: $3,050

In betting terms, Hokit’s shorter price reflects his status as the division’s next big thing, while Freeman’s longer odds highlight both his resilience and perceived gap in finishing power.

Implied Probability Snapshot

Without diving into the math, these lines loosely translate to:

• Josh Hokit carries roughly a 70–75% chance to win in the eyes of the market.
• Denzel Freeman sits near a 25–30% chance, making him a true underdog—but one with enough grit and technique to tempt contrarian bettors.

As sportsbooks continue to adjust to new money flows, monitor both the opening and closing lines. Sharp shifts could signal insider confidence or late-money plays that might sway your pick. Whether you favor the wrestling onslaught of Hokit or the tough-as-nails veteran style of Freeman, these odds and movements are your roadmap to smart money placement.